World Series Betting -- Game 1: Is Scherzer the Guy to Beat Gerrit Cole?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Tue, Oct 22nd, 2019 4:04:07 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Houston Astros send Gerrit Cole out to the mound against Max Scherzer in the opening game of the World Series on Tuesday night.


The Washington Nationals have never made it to the World Series, either in their present incarnation or as the Montreal Expos. And the nation's capital has not had a World Series team since 1924. Will this Fall Classic prove to be a festive occasion for this National League wild card team? We'll start finding that out on Tuesday night, as they do battle with the Houston Astros in Game 1, which begins at 8:08 PM ET, on Fox Network.

BetAnySports customers with access to FS1 can watch the game live and place wagers on it in real time using the facilities that are available through Live Betting Ultra.

MLB World Series picksThe Astros struggled a bit in their ALCS against the Yankees, but got rescued by a ninth inning homer by Jose Altuve. He might be the best position player on the field, with apologies to Washington's Anthony Rendon. But there is little doubt about who the hottest pitcher in the game is. And he'll be going for AJ Hinch on Tuesday.

Gerrit Cole not only went 19-0 from May 27 forward, and has not taken a loss in his last 25 starts, he has also been good as gold in the post-season, allowing just one run in 22-2/3 innings. And he would have to be considered the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award.

His opposite number in this game has won that trophy on three different occasions. Things got a little rocky for Max Scherzer down the stretch this season, and into his first playoff appearance, but he demonstrated that he was not to be written off, as he has struck out 25 and allowed just one run in his last 18 frames.

Houston has posted a record of 65-22 at home, and they have been "clean" at Minute Maid Park aside from a 7-0 loss to the Yankees in the first game of the ALCS.

Washington has not necessarily been such a formidable road team, checking in with a record of 47-39. But they have performed well above expectations, with clutch performances in the wild card game, the NLDS (against Los Angeles) and the NLCS (a four-game sweep vs. St. Louis). So they have won six in a row, yielding just ten runs over that period.

Astros World Series pickIn the World Series betting odds (with reduced juice) posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Astros are a considerable favorite:

Houston Astros (Cole) -188
Washington Nationals (Scherzer) +181

Over 6.5 Runs -115
Under 6.5 Runs +105

Nationals +1.5 Runs -125
Astros -1.5 Runs +115

On May 22, Cole took his fifth loss of the season, bringing his record to 4-5. He has not lost a decision since, and that encompasses a period of 25 starts. The Astros won the last 16 times he has taken the mound. All told, he's has a ratio of 6.2 strikeouts for every walk he has issued. And he's had 1.32 whiffs per inning. So there is nothing you can really do to disparage the guy, unless you wanted to nitpick things like five walks in seven innings against the Yankees last time out. With ten hits allowed in those 22-2/3 playoff innings, we are seeing some of the best pitching we have in many a year. Cole was the AL leader in a lot of categories, including K's, WAR (Wins Against Replacement) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

And he is about to become a free agent.

Going into the post-season, Scherzer had just seven starts coming off a shoulder injury, and admittedly he was stumbling a bit. But his last outing was phenomenal, as he fanned eleven and gave up just one hit against the Cardinals.

So as you may be asking the question as to who might be able to duel with Cole, a guy like Scherzer, if he's found his form again, may indeed be the one.

Washington Nationals MLB free pickBy the way, here is the series price at BetAnySports (with reduced juice):

Houston Astros             -215
Washington Nationals +195

Both of these teams can put three outstanding starting pitchers out there. Yes, the Astros would have something of an edge with Cole, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, but when you have Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, you know that on any given night you can get a performance that can dominate a game.

Really, it's the bullpen that gives the Astros the decided edge. Sure, we realize that the Nats made some moves in an attempt to straighten things out, but the fact remains that Houston's pen is best in the majors in the all-important category of strikeout-walk ratio, while the Nationals' bullpen had the highest collective ERA in the majors at 5.68. It is also the worst bullpen ERA of any team that has ever competed in the post-season.

So it would make sense that if you were on board with Scherzer and really believed in him, you would want to keep the bullpen out of the picture, right? So you might want to look at the five-inning play, where the Nats are priced at +165. Of course, you'd be looking for them to put at least a couple across the plate against Cole.

But because that bullpen is a candidate to blow up, I may be looking a little more at the run line, frankly, where I can get the best pitcher in baseball at this moment, count on at least seven innings from him, with heat in the pen, and get the price of +110. Just sayin'.

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