NFL Week 6 Free Pick Consensus: New York Jets at New England Patriots

NFL Handicappers Back the Jets Against the Patriots in Week 6

The New England Patriots may be the better football team, but that doesn't necessarily make them the better bet. A review of free NFL picks from leading handicapping websites reveals considerable support for the New York Jets getting more than a touchdown against the Patriots on Sunday.

Why NFL Handicappers Like the Jets

The Jets enter Sunday's contest with a 2-3 record after defeating Cleveland 17-12 last week. New England is 3-2 following an impressive 45-17 victory over Las Vegas.

The Jets are coming off a nice win over the surging browns and did so with defense. New York's defense ranks fourth in the league in total defense, allowing less than 300 yards per game. They are also number 4 against the pass shutting down opponents with a secondary featuring Dane Belton (38 tackles) and Minkah Fitzpatrick at the safety positions. 

The Jets have kept games competitive through defense while playing mistake-free football. Geno Smith has not thrown and interception yet in 2026 and the Jets have a +3 turnover differential through their first 5 games.

Can New England Cover a Touchdown?

The Patriots have won and covered three consecutive meetings against the Jets and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. However, the difference between winning outright and covering a spread of more than seven points is significant.

The Patriots offense is ranked 8th overall behind a resurgent Drake Maye. Maye was awful in the first few weeks but in the last two weeks he has tossed seven TDs vs just one interception. The Patriots have averaged just over 28 points per game but struggled against a top defenses in Seattle back in Week 1.

The Free Pick Consensus

Despite those contrasting performances, several handicappers believe the betting line gives New England too much credit for its recent struggles.

The Pick: New York Jets +7.5

While the Patriots could very well win the game, there is value in taking more than a touchdown with a New York defense capable of keeping the contest competitive.

As always, bettors should shop for the best available line. Getting +7.5 rather than +7 could prove particularly important in a closely contested divisional matchup.