NHL Hockey Betting: Winning Prop Bet Strategies

Get an Edge with Prop Betting Strategies for the NHL

For decades viewership of NHL hockey in the United States was very low often ranking with sports like bowling, and betting on hockey in Vegas was not popular at all except with the biggest sharps who didn’t care about the sport but just wanted an advantage over the sportsbooks. The Miracle on Ice in 1980, success of the United States’ hockey teams at the Olympics, and the buildup of star American players helped change that. So now, that interest combined with the legalization of sports betting has made the NHL the fourth most viewed and bet on sport in the U.S. behind only football, baseball and basketball. Yet despite the popularity, many Americans are still confused about hockey betting and particularly hockey props and what strategies help maximize potential profits. This article will identify some strategies to identify great betting opportunities to hopefully turn the advantage from the house to the bettor.

NHL Overtime Bets

The moneyline bet or team to win has changed over the years. Prior to overtime being introduced by the NHL in 1983 the moneyline for NHL hockey in Las Vegas was always a three-way line with either the home team winning, the visiting team winning or a tie option. It stayed that way until 2005 when the league introduced the shootout, which guaranteed one team would win. Between 1983 and 2005 a tie included OT, which meant tie odds could be as high as +600, since most games ended during the 5-minute overtime, particularly when the NHL introduced the 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 overtime formats.

Nevertheless, after 2005 most sportsbooks still decided to offer a three-way line that excluded overtime, or they had  a prop asking if the game will go to overtime. And those options still exists today. The line for a game going to overtime generally ranges from +300 to +400 depending on the moneyline and total. So for teams that are high scoring and mismatched odds of about +400 is common; while for teams that are low scoring and evenly matched odds of about +300 is far more common. The majority of overtime odds falls in the middle closer to +350 and the odds are always lower in the playoffs.

So is betting on overtime a good idea? Let’s look at the trends for the 4 regular seasons since covid:

- In 2022-2023, 306 games went to OT or about 23.3%;
- In 2023-2024, 270 games went to OT or about 20.6%;
- in 2024-2025, 273 games went to OT or about 20.8%;
- in 2025-2026, 327 games went to OT for an astounding 25% of games.

While there is no specific explanation for why the figure was over 4% higher last year than the previous year, analysts suggested that increased parity across the league, thanks to strict salary caps, may have played a role. Additionally, coaches have become more conservative, particularly late in games, believing that reaching overtime and guaranteeing a point is a better strategy than risking a late goal and coming away with nothing. In those 327 games last year the average odds for OT at Bet365 was approximately +338. So the ROI for that bet would have been almost 10%. Before seeing that and declaring betting OT is a great bet, however, remember that it was under 21% in the prior two season and about 23% in 2022-2023. The breakeven would require 22.73% of games to go into overtime.

Consequently, it’s best to look at trends and if they are consistent, then ride the train.

Unfortunately, so far this year in limited games only 11% of games have gone to OT, although overtime games are far more regular later in the season, so the trend will most likely still be there. Regardless, as one can see this can be a good bet and there is really no reason not to expect the total overtime games to be higher than 22.73%, particularly in games that involve close lower scoring teams. And considering many sportsbooks offer profit boosts including up to 50% betting for a game to go to OT (FanDuel tends to offer live profit boosts from 30% to 50% up to $50 for NHL games that can be bet on any single option), one can easily find an opportunity and bet those as soon as the whistle blows and make a tidy sum.

Key to Winning: Concentrate on games where the teams are evenly matched and the coaching styles are more conservative.

Player Prop Betting

Why Anytime Goal Scorer Bets Can Be Risky

One of the most popular player props is “player to score a goal”. Obviously, everyone wants to root on their favorite player to get a goal, but like betting an anytime TD in football . . . it’s generally a sucker bet. The sportsbooks know well which players score often and which players the public will back and hence they lower the odds considerably on that player to score. For example: Last year the leading goal scorer was Nathan MacKinnon who had 53 goals in 80 games or a 66% ratio. So any odds over +150 are good odds right? Wrong. In many of those games MacKinnon scored multiple goals and he actually only scored in 39 of the 80 games or less than 50% of games. More importantly against better defensive teams he often struggled. There have been years where there were players scoring in more than 50% of the games they played, but it was rare. The bigger problem is that for the best players, the lines are so much lower than they should be that the vig build in is obscene. Odds for an anytime goal by MacKinnon for example are almost always even money or less at most betting sites and the hold for anytime scorer bets is said to be close to 40%.

Betting NHL Player Points Instead of Goals

A far better bet is on a player to score a point (goal or assist). The vig for those bets is generally about 4%, similar to a moneyline bet, but if researched and bet correctly the advantage can to go the bettor. The key is to pick players is who get a lot of ice and more importantly are on the first power play unit. Almost 1 in 5 goals is scored on the power play so betting a player like Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid will always yield a better chance of getting a point than betting on a player like Brett Howden on Vegas who gets points but is never on the power play. So a good betting strategy when betting on a player to get points is to focus on a team that gets a lot of penalties and bet on the opponent players. Picking a player like a Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid or even Auston Matthews who lead the power play will provide lower odds, however the others on the power play unit often provide great odds. And in most cases, the first power play unit consists of players from either the second or third lines who will have higher odds. To identify the lines including the power play lines, check out dailyfaceoff.com that lists the probable lineups for the day.

It’s also important to note that while a player like McDavid may have odds of -500 to score a point, which is hardly a great bet, using him in a SGP could be quite valuable if there is a bet boost with no limit on minimum odds per leg.

Combining Necas, Kadri and MacKinnon on a SGP offers odds of +185 which isn’t bad, but Bet365 has a 50% SGP bonus up to $50 for a 3-way parlay with the only requirement being +100 total odds. Hence you can combine the three players to get a point and get odds of +330 which all of a sudden puts the true odds in the players’ favor.

Key to Winning: Look for opportunities, do your research and find places to make the bets. Not all these will win of course but if 1 out of 4 does you are way ahead.

Player shots on goal

Most sportsbooks will offer a bet on a player to get X number of shots in the game, which has a very high built-in edge for the sportsbook, but can be a good bet if wagered on correctly. Unfortunately, there is no over/under for player shots but they the props at the sportsbooks often have ranges for shots, e.g. Connor McDavid 3+ shots, 4+ shots etc. with the odds increasing for each additional shot. The key to winning on this bet is to look for teams that tend to give up a lot of shots on goal and then betting the players that get a lot of shots and ice time to get 4 or more shots on goal.

For example in the 2025-2026 season the Toronto Maple Leafs averaged 32.45 shots against each game, over 2.5 shots higher than the next team. The reason is simple, Most of the Maple Leafs defensemen such as Morgan Reilly and Oliver Ekman-Larson are more offensive minded, while their top players such as Auston Matthews and John Tavares are far more offensive allowing for breakaways and odd man rushes going the other way. As well the loss of Mitch Marner who was a good defensive forward to Vegas hurt the team as they adjusted. On the other hand Carolina, Ottawa and Vegas all gave up less than 25 shots on average. So looking at a game with a good offensive team vs. the Leafs, could provide a great opportunity to bet shots on net. That said it’s also important to watch trends and adjust. So far this year the Leafs have only given up 24 shots on average, lower than the league average, but they only played 4 games. Given the Maple Leafs’ struggles the last 4 years it’s safe to say this is an anomaly, so as sportsbooks start adjusting the shots against down to match the trend it could be a great opportunity to wager on players like Jack Eichel or Nathan MacKinnon to ramp up the shots on net for the next two games vs. Vegas and Colorado since trends almost always move back to the norm.

Blocked Shots Prop Betting

This may be one of the least bet props, but provides a great betting opportunity since as few as two blocked shots generally offers good odds, while 3 blocked shots can often have odds as high as +300. A blocked shot is described simply as a player who blocks the shot with their stick or body preventing the puck from reaching the goalie. So you don’t need a player who sacrifices their body to record a blocked shot, although that counts. It could simply be a player that intentionally puts out their stick and intercepts the shot. The key to this bet is to find a team that gets a lot of penalties (if you can find a referee that tends to call a lot of penalties that helps too) and then bet on the defensemen on that power play unit to block shots since defensemen are the position players that block most shots.  Players like Moritz Seider from Detroit tends to block 2 to 3 shots every single game and has been among the leaders each year, and Radko Gudas is also among the blocked shot leaders each year and Florida is consistently in the top penalty teams. Thus, Gudas is always a good bet to get two or more blocked shots each game. And as mentioned earlier most books offer nice profit boosts for SGP, so if you can combine say a Radko Gudas for most blocked shots with Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas to score a point in a game between Colorado and Florida it’s almost like printing money, especially if you can boost that 3 SGP by 50% or more.

Other NHL Prop Bets

NHL Goalie Saves Prop Betting

Another prop that has proven successful with proper research is betting on goalies to make 25 or more saves, particularly when they play for teams with poor defenses facing high-powered offenses. These bets can be especially attractive when the goalie is playing on the road, since home teams tend to be more aggressive offensively in front of their own fans.

Another good bet is for no goal in the first 10 minutes for two very defensive teams who tend to lay back early in the game and test each other out. And lastly betting the alternative totals at a lower amount say 3.5 goals to complete a SGP to take advantage of bet boosts is always a great option.

NHL Props to Avoid

One bet that a bettor should never wager on is the puck line since almost 43% of games are  decided by a 1 goal and close to 78% if you include a 2-goal game that was due to an empty netter and that has been consistent in all seasons since covid. Considering a heavy favorite on the puck line usually has odds well below even money, and in a toss up game the odds for a favorite to win by 1.5 goals or more is generally only about +200, the odds are badly against the bettor. Plus, the general hold for the sportsbook is close to 8% on the favorite compared to only 4.76% on a pick ‘em money line bet.

Final NHL Prop Betting Tips

So betting hockey props can be very profitable. The key is to find the right spots, know the teams who are on the power play a lot and most importantly taking advantage of best boosts whenever possible. True most bet boosts are limited to 50% or less but over an 80-game season that can add up.