NFL 2026 Week 1 Picks, Props And Parlays

Fairway's Football Forecast continues our NFL coverage and picks at Off Shore Gaming Assocation for a 10th straight season. That follows a 7-year-run hitting 57% ATS posting and picking only NFL underdogs. Favorites had a record-breaking run the second half of the 2024 season, and last year we changed our approach and will continue again with more options in betting NFL games offering Tips, Totals, Teasers and Trends reports along with our weekly Picks, Props and Parlays. 

As you follow along and decide what Picks and Tips you might want to bet, know my history at OSGA has produced some strong results while educating sports betting enthusiasts with handicapping tools, stats and value approach to help you win more and rush to the window.

From a 35-19 ATS 'Dog log in 2018 to the the 70% ATS season (28-12) in 2021 to a streaky finish in 2023 of 11-1 ATS with 9 outright 'Dog winners and 7-0 ATS in Week 14. Our approach to adding more picks, props and parlays along with tips, totals and teasers last season saw a wider range of results. Our NFL picks and opinions had a winning 2025 season but were stronger in the second half going 17-8 ATS (8-2 picks) in weeks 11-18. Separate game totals were more volatile but also finished with a pretty solid 15-10 record in weeks 12-18. Select player props won overall, highlighted by a strong 5-week run of 12-0 in the first half of the season. 

But going back a decade further, I have posted winning picks with proven performances including 8-straight years of NFL winners and third-party documented results at better than 57% ATS on more than 600 regular season plays including a 65% ATS season in my debut as a public handicapper a few decades ago. I've also had strong NFL contest success that included back-to-back 60% seasons and top 6% finishes in the NFL SuperContest in Las Vegas.  

But it's a new season that comes with coaching and personnel changes as we adjust our game and monitor the market and odds at leading online sportsbooks. We'll shoot to profit from our experience again while still taking a fundamental approach to handicapping and analyzing the matchups, stats and situations that have produced longterm success.  

NFL Week 1

Bet Labs reported last season that since 2010, NFL underdogs of 6 or more points in NFL Week 1 were 41-27-1 (60%) ATS. Then Dallas (+8.5) covered in Week 1 last year to kickoff the season on Thursday night at Philadelphia. But for the week, those 6+ point 'Dogs went 2-2 ATS and are now 43-29-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2010. 

Division 'Dogs struggled overall in Week 1 last year, but you can read more about division underdogs and other Tips, Totals and Trends in my early 2026 Week 1 report. 

NFL Week 1 Matchups And Odds 

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals. 

Wed, Sept. 9 to Mon, Sept. 14 

SEA - Wed., LAR - Thurs in Australia, KC - Mon
All others Sunday. Division games *

Five division games (*) to kickoff Week 1 of the NFL season. 

Picks And Parlays

Picks
Seahawks -3 
Colts +3.5

Totals
Commanders-Eagles Under (bet earlier, good to 44.5)

More Picks and Opinions Friday and Saturday ahead of Sunday games. 

New England at Seattle - We kick off the 2026 NFL season with a pick on Seattle, just as we did in last year's Super Bowl when the Seahawks pounded the Patriots and expect the better ground game, passing attack and defense to prevail again. The Seahawks likely implement more cover 6 coverage as they did in slowing QB Drake Maye and the Patriots pass attack in the Super Bowl. New England had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL last year, and made a fortunate run through the playoffs thanks to Houston's bonehead QB and turnovers, and then Denver's starting QB getting injured and facing a backup in bad weather and scoring just one TD in the AFC Championship Game. Then they faced a superior Seahawks team and got smacked in the Super Bowl. Now they play the superior Seahawks in Seattle. Same result. 

3-team parlay - Friday
2-team 'Dog parlay - Friday 

Parlays are also sides I prefer and if betting parlays, know the risk, odds and consider reduced wagers, amount. 

Player Props

NE-SEA: Patriots RB Stevenson: Over 15.5 rush attemps.
Stevenson should carry the load as he did in the playoffs with co-RB Henderson out with injury (ankle) to start the season. The Seahawks star nickel back Nick Emmanwori (ankle) is questionable, and he's an effective blitzer and run defender with starting safety Ty Okada (hamstring) already ruled out.

So many player prop opportunities each week and proving more beatable than NFL sides if you research and handicap with an understanding of stats and matchups. We'll add select player props as we evalute the matchups, stats and injury reports on Friday each week.  

Stats and ATS Notes

For just the second time in the past 19 seasons, a rookie quarterback will not start Week 1 of a NFL season. Raiders rookie QB Fernando Mendoza is the first quarterback taken No. 1 overall to start his career on the bench since Baker Mayfield in 2018. The last six QB's taken No. 1 since then started Week 1. 

More ATS updates and selective stats to note later in the week as we evalute the matchups more along with injury reports and any notable weather. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. That includes a 7-year run at OSGA picking 57% ATS winners on only NFL underdogs. FairwayJay is also on the scene and in Las Vegas covering major sports plus industry conferences and events as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.