2026 Final Four Preview and Predictions

Just three games remain in the college basketball season with the 2026 Final Four concluding the NCAA Tournament. Saturday, April 4 will tip off with No. 2 seed Connecticut vs. No. 3 seed Illinois. Then No. 1 seeds Arizona vs. Michigan follow from Lucas Oil Stadium. Three of the four teams meet key offensive and defensive efficiency metrics that have produced the national champion in 22 of the past 23 years - Arizona, Michigan and Illinois. All four teams have been top defensive teams throughout the season and have produced top of the leaderboard stats that are keys to NCAA Tournament success.

The Arizona-Michigan matchup will be just the 5th time ever that two teams with 35+ wins met in the Final Four. 

Connecticut's remarkable and dramatic come-from behind 73-72 win over No. 1 Duke in the Elite Eight was beyond belief following a steal and last-second made 3-pointer by Huskies freshman Braylen Mullins. No. 1 seeds were 134-0 in the NCAA Tournament when leading at halftime by 15+ points until Duke's defeat after leading by 19 points and 44-29 at halftime. 

Final Four Odds

College basketball odds and futures from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change. That includes on props and live betting, which is most popular during March Madness. All times Eastern.

Saturday, April 4 

Connecticut vs. Illinois (-2.5) | Total: 139.5 | 6:09 p.m. | TBS
Arizona vs. Michigan (-1) | Total: 158 | 9:30 p.m. | TBS 

BetOnline opened the Arizona/Michigan game pick 'em and game total 158 during the second-half of Michigan's Elite Eight one-sided win over Tennessee. The line moved to Michigan -1.5 and back to -1, and total to 156.5 before back up to -157.5 and now 158. Illinois opened -1.5 favorite, quickly moved to -2.5, back to -2 and again to -2.5 with the total 140 down to 139.5. 

The Wolverine's 33-point margin of victory (95-62) was the largest in the Elite Eight since 1989. 

The 2026 men's national championship game is Monday, April 6 at 8:30 p.m. on TBS. 

Bet on March Madness at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Final Four Stats And Picks

As you evaluate the matchups, odds and who can advance (and cover), recall my previous March Madness coverage where I noted that 22 of the last 23 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. 

Arizona (4,2 off/def)  
Michigan (5,1)
Illinois (1,20)
Connecticut (28,9) 

Additional coverage of UCONN and Arizona in the East and West Regions, along with Illinois and Michigan in the South and Midwest Regions provides more stats, profiles and information you can bet on.

There are many ways to bet the NCAA Tourmament beyond the spread, total and moneyline. Halftime betting, prop bets including player props will be popular with live betting generating a greater percentage of the sportsbooks handle with more watch and wager action in the Final Four. 

Final Four Tips and Trends 

I've updated past trends researched by the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN), and more stats and ATS info as available ahead of the games. 

- Final Four No. 1 seeds are 19-5 SU and 14-9-1 ATS since 2001 when not matched against another No. 1 seed. This does not apply in the 2026 Final Four with Duke's devastating defeat in the Elite Eight. The situation went 2-0 SU/ATS in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Last year (2025), all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for just the second time (2008) since 1979 when seeding began, and zero No. 1 seeds made the Final Four in the 2023 NCAA Tournament - just the third time since the NCAAT expanded in 1985. 

- Big Ten teams are winless at 0-8 SU and ATS in the championship game since 2001.

Final Four Odds To Win National Championship 

+165: Arizona
+175: Michigan
+400: Illinois
+575: UCONN 

Average scoring margin this season including NCAA Tournament 

Michigan (+18.1), Arizona (+17.7), Illinois (+15.1), UCONN (+12.2). 

There are also many magical and memorable moments in Final Four history. Connecticut Big East Freshman of the Year Braylen Mullins just added another dramatic, memorable moment and game-winning last-second shot to get to the Final Four. A few buzzer beaters over the past decade included the 2016 3-point game-winning shot by Kris Jenkins giving Villanova a national championship victory. And this iconic buzzer beater by Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs in overtime to extend their perfect season into the 2021 championship game.

Also, Fairways Forecast was limited during this year's NCAA Tournament with a personal family loss. But I posted game-day picks/opinions that went 3-0 in the Sweet Sixteen. Check back for additional Final Four picks, props, stats and information you can bet on. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player. He's been covering major sports from a betting perspective for more than two decades from Las Vegas. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.