Big 12 Preview and Betting Opportunities
The Big 12 football 2026 media days was the first of the power conferences in July. A month later, the Top 25 coaches poll was released and the Big 12 placed 4 teams in the preseason poll. A preview of the top teams, Big 12 contenders and odds with additional information you can bet on is provided here at Off Shore Gaming Association, which supports many top online sportsbooks and where members enjoy additional wagering benefits.
Despite being the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 12 following last season's 12 wins, conference title and 12-team College Football Playoff berth, Texas Tech is only ranked No. 12 to start the season. The Red Raiders are followed BYU (15), Utah (21) and Houston (24) with TCU and Arizona also receiving votes that would place them in the top 30.
You can read more of my college football previews of the two dominant Power 4 conferences in the Big Ten and SEC, which placed eight teams in the Top 10 of the Coaches Poll, and very similar rankings in the recently released Top 25 AP Poll on Aug. 17.
Two Big 12 teams made Phil Steele's most improved list (top 12) this season led by Kansas State (9) and Central Florida (UCF, 13). Surprise teams include Houston (10) and TCU (12). Recall last season, Texas Tech was on the surprise team list and went on to improve by 4-wins to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff as a 12-win team. Houston was also a most improved team with 10 wins, while Utah made the most improved and surprise teams lists and won 11 games.
Stock up teams based on last year's records, yards and metrics include Baylor and Central Florida (UCF). I personally like West Virginia as a most improved team from the bottom half of the league and give them a stock up rating off a 4-win season. Oklahoma State had 1-win and zero in the Big 12 as the bottom fell out on the program and longest-tenured coach Mike Gundy (21 years). But this year's Oklahoma State team has a 'bull market' rating by many with new coach Eric Morris from North Texas and many of his former Mean Green players joining him in Stillwater and the Big 12.
Outside of Texas Tech, there isn't as much respect nationally for the Power 4 teams in the Big 12 based on national title odds. Tech is 22/1, but no other team's odds are below 80/1 to win the national championship.
As you place your bets during the 2026 college football season, understand too that betting at regulated U.S. sportsbooks is not offered in Texas and Florida, two of the most populous states in the United States, or Oklahoma and Utah. Those states are home to eight Big 12 teams. So millions of sports fans and bettors in the South watch and wager at leading online sportsbooks outside the U.S. with reduced juice sportsbooks providing a greater edge to winning.
Big 12 Odds, Season Wins And Position/Unit Rankings
College football odds from BetUS and other leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Season wins are regular season only.
Texas Tech
Head coach: Joey McGuire (5th year)
Season Wins: O/U 10.5 (Over -200)
Last 4 years: 12-2, 8-5, 7-6
National Title: +2200
Big 12 Title: +100
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (6), RB (1), REC (2), OL (3), DL (1), LB (1), DB (3), ST (1), Coach (2)
Notes: Bye Week 6 (Oct. 10). The Red Raiders are the clear favorite to win the Big 12, and their loaded high-paid players won't have to line-up and face BYU or Utah during the regular season. Their other four toughest opponents all travel to Lubbock. Texas Tech was a league-best +183 yards per game better than their Big 12 opponents last season with a dominant defense holding all opponents on their schedule a collective 128 yards per game below their season average. That led to all regular season victories by 20+ points. The Red Raiders dominant defense is loaded again this season with five first-team All-Big 12 players on Phil Steele's preseason all conference team after allowing just 11.8 points per game and 258 yards per game last season. Tech suffered a 23-0 College Football Playoff Orange Bowl loss to Oregon, but held the powerful Ducks offense to 309 yards. The highest-spending team in the Big 12 is Texas Tech, and they crack the top 10 nationally in NIL, portal players pay with more than a $40 million roster. Over the past two cycles, the average Big 12 team has signed two 4-star transfers. Texas Tech signed 20. The Red Raiders are the most likely Power 4 team to go undefeated this season and return to the College Football Playoff.
BYU
Head coach: Kalani Sitake (11th year)
Season Wins: O/U 8.5 (Over -150)
Last 3 years: 12-2, 11-2, 5-7
National Title: +8000
Big 12 Title: +550
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (3), RB (3), REC (12), OL (1), DL (2), LB (2), DB (1), ST (12), Coach (2)
Notes: Bye Week 4 (Sept. 26). The Cougars move up sharply in Big 12 position rankings at QB, RB, OL and DL with Big 12 seniority leader Kalani Sitake in his 11th season in Provo. BYU started 9-0 two seasons ago and 8-0 last season before a 29-7 road loss to conference champions Texas Tech. The Cougars reached No. 8 in the country ahead of that showdown in Lubbock, and lost to the Red Raiders again in the Big 12 championship game 34-7. Brigham Young has beaten Utah each of the past two seasons in tight 3 and 1-point victories. This year's 104th edition of the Holy War is Nov. 7 in Salt Lake City. Coach Sitake was the defensive coordinator under Utah HC Kyle Whittingam for a decade prior to joining BYU. Whittinham is now the head coach at Michigan, and BYU has a new defensive coordinator and special teams coach this season after allowing less than 20 points per game and 310-335 yards per game the past two seasons. The Cougars have more often overachieved their analytics, and they are 23-4 the past two seasons scoring 31 points per game and allowing 19 points per game each year. Sophomore QB Bear Bachmeier returns after leading the offense to a nation-best scoring drives in 27 straight quarters to start last season with senior RB LJ Martin also back as the Big 12's leading rusher and Offensive Player of the Year. BYU was able to keep all 10 All-Big 12 players and they look strong again while avoiding Texas Tech and Houston with the non-conference home game vs. Notre Dame Oct. 17 one of the most anticipated of the year.
Utah
Head coach: Morgan Scalley (1st year)
Season Wins: O/U 8.5 (Over -150)
Last 2 years: 11-2, 5-7
National Title: +10000
Big 12 Title: +650
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (1), RB (3), REC (3), OL (11), DL (2), LB (7), DB (1), ST (1), Coach (13)
Notes: Bye Week 5 (Oct. 3). Morgan Scalley is the new head coach after serving as the Utes defensive coordinator the past decade. The offensive line has some holes to fill, but last year's Newcomer of the Year, elusive Devin Dampier is a top-rated QB and the RB and WR groups are stronger than last season. Still, the Utes lost nine starting linemen along the offensive and defensive lines. That would usually set a team back significantly, but previous coach Whittingham had an elite player development program. Still, 41 points per game and 483 yards per game offense is not happening again with a notable dropoff, and regression on defense also despite 19, 20 and 19 points per game the past three seasons. Double-digit wins is unlikely even without Texas Tech on the schedule, their two toughest opponents at home (HOU and BYU), and three road games against bottom Big 12 teams.
Houston
Head coach: Willie Fritz (3rd year)
Season Wins: O/U 8.5 (Under -155)
Last 3 years: 10-3, 4-8, 4-8
National Title: +20000
Big 12 Title: +1600
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (3), RB (3), REC (3), OL (3), DL (1), LB (3), DB (6), ST (12), Coach (6)
Notes: Bye Week 9 (Oct. 31). Preview to follow.
Arizona
Head coach: Brent Brennan (3rd year)
Season Wins: O/U 7.5 (Under -125)
Last 2 years: 9-4, 4-8
National Title: +25000
Big 12 Title: +1800
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (3), RB (12), REC (12), OL (6), DL (5), LB (12), DB (6), ST (9), Coach (6)
Notes: Bye Week 7 (Oct. 17). A strong turnaround season last year for coach Brennan and the Wildcats. They won 9 games and lost a pair of late 4Q contests to Houston and BYU (OT), and were a depleated team in a bowl game defeat. The 'Cats improved by 10 points per game on offense (31.5) and 12 PPG on defense (19.3) last season with an elite secondary and pass defense that ranked No. 1 in the country in opponent QB rating with top-2 in the nation in interceptions (22) and takaways per game (2.5) with all four defensive backs drafted into the NFL. Changes at coordinators last season paid off after losing many players to Washington and former Arizona coach Jedd Fisch the previous season. Senior QB Noah Fafita returns as a first-team All-Big 12 player, along with 12 other starters. But Arizona was also +14 in turnover margin last season, and those double-digit TO teams have a worse or same record the following season 73% of the time since 1990. Same applies to one other Big 12 team this season, Texas Tech (+13). Arizona is a likely dropoff teams this season (under season wins) with the toughest schedule in the Big 12 and the only team to play six of the top seven teams that includes BYU (Week 2) and Texas Tech (Week 9, Halloween) on the road.
TCU
Head coach: Sonny Dykes (5th year)
Season Wins: O/U 6.5 (Over -170)
Last 3 years: 9-4, 9-4, 5-7
National Title: +25000
Big 12 Title: +2000
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (6), RB (12), REC (8), OL (6), DL (2), LB (12), DB (3), ST (6), Coach (1)
Notes: Bye Week 1 and 7. For the second-straight season, Texas Christian opens the season in Week 0 with a rematch against North Carolina from the ACC. The Aug. 29th contest is in Dublin, Ireland and TCU destroyed NC last season 48-10 in the Tar Heels college debut of famed NFL coach Bill Belichick. But that was with Josh Hoover at QB, and he transfered to Indiana. Just three seasons ago, TCU went from unranked to the national title game before a blowout loss to Georgia. Now off back-to-back 9-win seasons, regression is likely with the Horned Frogs poor running game the last two seasons (131, 114 per game) and a defense that loses its linebacking core and has allowed 24.6 to 29 points per game each of the last four seasons. Coach Dykes has stableized the program and raised its floor while recruiting and retaining players without as much pursuite in the transfer portal. But the Frogs do add a senior Ivy League QB this season in Jaden Craig, who has a big arm and could surprise many in a new scheme and new offensive coordinator featuring more motion and formation shifts. The running game should improve, but not buying in on defensive improvement. The Horned Frogs get BYU and Utah at home, but road games at UCF, Baylor and Arizona plus the season finale at Texas Tech makes regression likely with a bowl game a bonus despite higher expectations.
Kansas State
Head coach: Collin Kleiman (1st year)
Season Wins: O/U 8.6 (Under -135)
Last 3 years: 6-6, 9-4, 9-4
National Title: +20000
Big 12 Title: +1400
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (6), RB (8), REC (7), OL (11), DL (8), LB (7), DB (3), ST (3), Coach (15)
Notes: Bye Week 5 (Oct. 3). Former K-State QB Collin Klein is the new head coach of his alma mater. The Wildcats are getting more buzz with odds dropping as KSU plays the easiest schedule in the Big 12 avoiding Texas Tech, BYU and Utah and playing Houston at home following a bye. But the Wildcats have less experience and a potential falloff along the offensive and defensive lines, and a downgrade at head coach with Klein jumping right up to the Big 12 with no head coaching experience despite showing a strong ability and mind as offensive coordinator here for two years and the last two seasons as OC at Texas A&M. The Wildcats have beaten their in-state rival Kansas Jayhawks 17-straight times since 2009, and since 2018 the Wildcats have performed better for bettors off a loss going 24-13 ATS.
Arizona State
Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (4th year)
Season Wins: O/U 6.5 (under -125)
Last 2 years: 8-5, 11-3
National Title: +25000
Big 12 Title: +2400
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (11), RB (12), REC (6), OL (11), DL (8), LB (3), DB (11), ST (15), Coach (6)
Notes: Bye Weeks 4 (Sept 26). A most improbable season for the Sun Devils in 2024 saw them win the Big 12 championship after being picked to finish last. Coach Dillingham got the Sun Devils to 8-wins and a bowl again last season, but national media expectations are not as high this season with ASU losing 18 starters with 10 new starters to a defense that allowed 24 points per game last season. Projections based on unit rankings suggest big dropoff at QB, RB, OL, DB and also DL. After trying to tackle Texas A&M on the road in Week 2, the Sun Devils open Big 12 play against Kansas overseas in London. Road games at Texas Tech and BYU and the in-state rivalry in Tucson against Arizona will contribute to a likely dropoff on defense after allowing 24.5 points and 357 yards per game last season. Arizona State loses top QB Sam Leavitt to the SEC and LSU, and there are most questions this season for the team in Tempe.
Central Florida
Head coach: Scott Frost (2nd year)
Season Wins: O/U 5.5 (Over -145)
Last 3 years: 5-7, 4-8, 6-7
National Title: +60000
Big 12 Title: +5500
Big 12 Unit rankings: QB (10), RB (8), REC (8), OL (6), DL (5), LB (7), DB (6), ST (13), Coach (13)
Notes: Bye Week 7 (Oct. 17). Scott Frost's second stint in at UCF did not go well in Big 12 play. Following a 3-0 start, the Knights won just two conference games with one of those against winless Oklahoma State. The Knights avoid Texas Tech and Utah, but have a win total of just 5.5 which projects to the bottom half of the Big 12.
Other Big 12 Teams
Teams projected in the bottom half of the Big 12 by many preseason publications and media with season win totals include:
- Baylor (6.5, Under -170)
- Oklahoma State (6.5, Under -140)
- West Virginia (5.5, Over -160)
- Cincinnati (5.5, Under -150)
- Kansas (5.5, Over -140)
- Colorado (4.5, Under -165)
- Iowa State (4.5, Over -140)
Most Watched and Wagered Big 12 Games
The Big 12 features some key games among the top-rated teams, but none with Texas Tech vs. BYU or Utah. Here are some of the most anticipated watch and wager games in the Big 12 with preseason select GOY betting lines.
- Sept. 18 (Fri): Houston at Texas Tech (-14)
- Oct. 3: BYU at TCU
- Oct. 10: Houston at Kansas State
- Oct. 17: Kansas at Kansas State (-6.5)
- Oct. 17: Notre Dame (-10.5) at BYU
- Oct. 17: Arizona State at Texas Tech
- Oct. 17: TCU at Baylor
- Oct. 24: Houston at Utah
- Oct. 31: Arizona at Texas Tech
- Nov. 7: BYU at Utah (-2)
- Nov. 21: Utah at TCU
- Nov. 21: Texas Tech at Baylor
- Nov. 26: TCU at Texas Tech
- Nov. 28: Baylor at Houston
- Nov. 28: Arizona State at Arizona
The Holy War saw a line move from BYU -2.5 to Utah -2 after South Point Las Vegas took multiple $2,200 max bets on the Utes when opening lines were posted August 1. Kansas also took money as underdog vs. rival Kansas State with the Wildcats dropping from -9 to -6.5. Big 'Dog Houston took some money against top team Texas Tech, down from -15.5 opener.
More stats, updates and information you can bet on as the college football season progresses. The Big 12 Championship Game is Friday, Dec. 4 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The last Big 12 team to win the national championship was Texas in 2005 when the Longhors were members of the Big 12 before moving to the SEC in 2024. The 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game is Monday, January 25, 2027 at Allegiant Stadium in the Las Vegas. See you there.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, reporter and poker player based in Las Vegas. He's been covering major sports including college football and NFL plus golf from a betting perspective for more than two decades. FairwayJay is also on the scene for NHL and major sports and poker events plus industry conferences and college football media days as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.
