NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet Sixteen Teams, Matchups and Odds

Time to dance into the Sweet Sixteen, and three of the top No. 1 seeds and all four No. 2 seeds advanced through the opening two rounds. That includes Duke, Connecticut, Arizona and Purdue in the East and West Regions along with Houston, Michigan and Iowa State in the South and Midwest Regions with the defending national champion and No. 1 seed Florida Gators (-10.5) getting knocked out by No. 9 Iowa on a last-second 3-pointer. Double-digit favorites were 46-2 SU in Round 32 since 2005 entering Sunday, and now 47-3 with Florida losing and Arizona (-11.5) winning.

The First Four winner No. 11 Texas is the highest seed remaining with three wins in five days including a win over No. 3 Gonzaga in the West Region.  

Sweet Sixteen Matchups, Odds, Pick

College basketball odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on futures, props and live betting. All times Eastern with select picks and additional stats and updates ahead of games. 

Thursday, March 26 

South - Toyota Center (Houston, TX) 

- No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska (-2.5) | Total 133.5 | 7:30 p.m. | TBS/truTV 
- No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston (-2.5) | Total 140 | 10:05 p.m. | TBS/truTV

West - SAP Center (San Jose, CA) 

- No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue (-8) | Total 149 | 7:10 p.m. | CBS 
- No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona (-8.5) | Total 166.5 | 9:45 p.m. | CBS 

Friday, March 27

East - Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) 

- No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 1 Duke (-7) | Total 142 | 7:10 p.m. | CBS 
- No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UCONN (-1) | Total 136.5 | 9:45 p.m. | CBS 

Midwest - United Center (Chicago, IL)

- No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan (-10) | Total 174 | 7:35 p.m. | TBS/truTV
- No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Iowa State (-4) | Total 138.5 | 10:10 p.m. | TBS  

Betting Favorites

Limited betting and posts in the opening rounds of March Madness for me, due to an unexpected personal loss. Probably a good thing with so many favorites delivering again. When No. 12 High Point (+10.5) upset No. 5 Wisconsin 83-82 in the opening round Thursday, it snapped a big favorite streak in the NCAA Tournament.

In the last two years, NCAAT favorites of 8+ points are 45-1 straight up (SU) following Saturday's Round of 32 contests that included 10-0 on Friday and 5-0 Saturday for favorites of 8+ points. Top seed Arizona (-11.5) won on Sunday, but a big bracket buster also hit Sunday as No. 1 seed Florida (-10.5) lost to Iowa. NCAA Tournament favorites of 8+ points are now 46-2 SU the last two years with three more big favorites in the Sweet Sixteen. 

Overall, since the start of the 2025 NCAA Tournament and through the Round of 32 in 2026, betting favorites are 93-26 straight up. That includes 39-9 SU and 29-19 ATS this year through the opening two rounds ahead of the Sweet Sixteen. The 39-9 SU mark is fewest underdog upsets since 2018 and tied for the 2nd-fewest in the last 20 years. The 29-19 ATS mark for favorites is the best since 2008 (30-18 ATS).

Action Network also reports that favorites of 4 or more points are 75-11 SU and 52-34 ATS since the start of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. And a top 4 seed facing a No. 5 seed or worse are 60-8 SU and 42-26 ATS. 

All 16 top-4 seeds this year were double-digit favorites in the Round of 64 - the first time that has happened since the tournament expanded in 1985. There were 10 teams favored by at least 20 pts in the Round of 64 — the previous record since 1985 was just six such games.

Favorites went 14-1 SU in the Sweet Sixteen or later in last year's 2025 tournament, the best record for any season in the seeding era.

I did get burned by UCLA (-5.5) in a 4-point win over UCF in an opening round game last week. The Bruins and superior coaching had it covered with a 9-point lead following a missed FT with 34 seconds left but blew the money late. But UCLA's win on opening round Friday was part of a 16-0 SU, 12-4 ATS day for betting favorites - just the second undefeated day since 1992 for favorites in the Round of 64. 

A very good underdog bet on No. 11 Texas (+6.5) in their outright win over No. 3 seed Gonzaga, who I noted and believed was a weaker and overrated 3, 4, 5 seed in my East and West Region preview. Texas coach Sean Miller, a longtime HC at Arizona, is now 10-0 ATS in the Round of 32. 

Tips and Trends

Playbook Sports also provides some tips and trends for Sweet Sixteen betting in the NCAA Tournament. Note that only three times since the 1985 NCAAT has a No. 1 seed failed to reach the Final Four. Last year was just the second time (2008, 2025) that all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four since seeding began in 1979. 

- No. 1 seeds are 25-10 against the spread off back-to-back straight-up (SU) and ATS wins. That includes 7-2 ATS the last 9 years after Duke (-9) failed to cover in last year's Sweet Sixteen (applies to Arizona). 
- No. 2 seed favorites are 11-21 ATS, including 3-9 ATS the last 13 years (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS last year) - applies to Houston, Purdue, UCONN, Iowa State.
- No. 6 seeds are 7-2 ATS the last 12 years (applies to Tennessee).
- No. 10 or worse seed underdogs of more than 4 points are 15-4 ATS last 14 years (applies to Texas, No. 10 Arkansas (+5.5) lost by 2 points in overtime last year).
- Big Ten teams are on a 1-10 ATS run as underdog of more than 3 points (Purdue +8.5 covered last year, Michigan and Maryland did not).
- ACC favorites of 7 or more points are on a 1-7 ATS run (applies to Duke). 

Sweet Sixteen Picks

Check back as I post select Sweet Sixteen picks after going 3-0 in the 2024 NCAA Tourmament at OSGA and passing last year.

In the 2017, 2024 and 2025 NCAA Tournaments, 12 of the top 16 teams seeded by the committee made the Sweet Sixteen. That was the second most since 1997, per the NCAA. This year's 2026 NCAA Tournament again features 12 of the top 16 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, including all the power conferences. 

6 - Big Ten
4 - SEC
3 - Big 12
2 - Big East
1 - ACC 

Top teams in scoring margin this season through Round of 32: 

- Duke (+18.9)
- Michigan (+17.9)
- Arizona (+17.8)
- Iowa State (+17.2)
- Illinois (+15.4)
- Houston (+15.2)
- UCONN (+12.4)
- Purdue (+12.1)
- St. John's (+11.7)
- Nebraska (+11.3)
- Michigan State (+10.9)
- Tennessee (+10.3)
- Arkansas (+10.0)
- Alabama (+9.1)
- Iowa (+8.9)
- Texas (+5.8)

Adjusted odds To Win 2026 NCAA Tournament And Championship

+300: Michigan
+350: Arizona
+425: Duke
+650: Houston
+1200:Purdue
+1400: Illinois
+1800: Iowa State
+2200: Michigan State
+2800: Connecticut, Arkansas, St. John's
+5000: Nebraska, Tennesee
+10000: Alabama
+12500: Iowa, Texas

As noted previously in March Madness coverage, 22 of the last 23 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings, per KenPom.

- Duke (7 offense, 1 Defense)
- Arizona (4,3)
- Michigan (6,2)
- Houston (10,4)
- Iowa State (17,5)
- Illinois (2,24)
- Purdue (1,33)
- Michigan State (22,13)
- Connecticut (30,11)
- Alabama (3,60)
- Arkansas (5,53)
- Nebraska (52,6)
- St. John's (42,8)
- Tennessee (31,14)
- Iowa (25,31)
- Texas (15,81) 
- Out - Florida (9,7), Gonzaga (34,12), Vanderbilt (8,32) Virginia (27,18), Louisville (21,27), Texas Tech (14,35), Kansas (59,9), Wisconsin (12,55), BYU (13,61), North Carolina (36,37), Miami (33,36), Kentucky (40,28), UCLA (28,46).

Check back for more stats, odds, updates and information you can bet on.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player. He's been covering major sports from a betting perspective for more than two decades from Las Vegas. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.