College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview - Big East

The countdown to the NCAA Tournament is less than a week away, and Selection Sunday is March 15. In the Big East Conference, St. John's is the top seed followed by Connecticut, who likely lost their chance at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and missed out on the Big East regular season title with a last game loss to Marquette.

Just three teams from the Big East are projected into the NCAA Tournament bracket by Joe Lunardi at ESPN. That includes Villanova, and I chip in a Big East Tournament betting guide with odds, stats, select picks and information you can bet on at Off Shore Gaming Association. 

The Big 12, Big East and ACC tournaments along with the Big Ten and SEC will be most watched and wagered events at the top online sportsbooks. Those five power conferences are expected to send 39-40 teams to the NCAA Tournament. I also attended and reported on the West Coast Conference Tournament in Las Vegas, where three teams from the WCC will make the Big Dance. I'll also get to the Mountain West Conference Tournament as well with a total of four college basketball conference tournaments in Las Vegas including the WAC and Big West.  

The Betting Scene

Check out the Betting Scene and more college basketball March Madness contests and offers from the top online sportsbooks. Following the men's college basketball conference tournaments, the media coverage really ramps up for the madness of the NCAA Tournament. March Madness is one of the most exciting times in American Sports, and the betting interest in March Madness reaches it's peak with billions of dollars wagered worldwide at online sportsbooks. But the college basketball conference tournaments offer even more, and often better betting opportunities as a majority of teams, especially in the smaller conferences, play for a chance to realize their dream of playing in the NCAA Tournament. 

Which Big East teams project as national champion contenders? This season's three elite teams will be NCAA Tournament top seeds with Duke (29-2), Michigan (29-2) and Arizona (29-2) winning the regular season titles in the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. Duke also beat Michigan on Feb. 21. Connecticut (27-4) lost their last regular season game to miss out on the Big East regular season title and fall off the No. 1 seed line for the NCAA Tournament.

All four of the projected No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament are also top defensive teams, as is Connecticut. They also fit a proven stat profile of a national champion. Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida all rank top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings by KenPom. All four teams are currently top 10 in both those categories. Houston from the Big 12 is the only other team currently in the top 20 in both categories. Connecticut is No. 28 offense and No. 11 defense, both best in the Big East. Why is that notable? Because 22 of the last 23 national champions have finished in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Those stats rankings will adjust through each game of the conference tournaments. 

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Big East Conference

Odds to win the Big East Tournament from BetOnline and leading reduced juice sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. 

Listed in the table is each teams overall and conference records in conference tournament seed order, and offensive and defensive efficiency (OE, DE) ratings from KenPom. Also, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is a key advanced metric that measures a team's or player's efficiency, calculated as the difference between their Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). It shows how much better or worse a team performs compared to opponents. 

Some of the stats reference will be on winning teams, as those will be teams to follow in the NCAA Tournament and select other postseason tournaments including the National Invitational Tournament (NIT).

Big East Stats, Trends and Notes

Notable players to watch include these first-team All-Big East selections by the conference coaches.  

Three from UCONN - senior forward Alex Karaban (12.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg), senior center Tarris Reed, Jr.(13.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and junior guard Silas DeMary, Jr. (11.0 ppg, 6.5 apr, 4.5 rpg). They join St. John's Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Scholar-Athlete of the Year, senior forward Zuby Ejiofor (16.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.0 blocks). Also on the first team is senior forward Michael Ajayi (16.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg) of Butler, senior forward Tre Carroll (18.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) of Xavier. Guard Nigel James Jr. (16.4 ppg, 4.8 apg, 3.5 rpg) of Marquette is the Freshman of the Year, and Big East Coach of the Year is Shaheen Holloway of Seton Hall.
 
In conference games only this season, here are the stats leaders: 

- Scoring offense: Providence (83.8 ppg), St. John's (79.3), Xavier (79.1), Connecticut (77.7), Creighton (76.9), Villanova (76.3)  
- FG% offense: Connecticut (47.7%), Providence (46.9), Creighton (46.1), Villanova (45.6), Xavier (45.2), Marquette (45.2), St. John's (44.3).
- 3-point offense: Xavier (37.9%), Connecticut (36.3), Creighton (36.1), Providence (35.3), St. John's (35.1), Villanova (35.0).    
- Scoring defense: Seton Hall (65.5 ppg), Connecticut (67.2), St. John's (70.3), DePaul (70.9), Villanova (72.0).  
- FG% defense: Seton Hall (39.6%), Connecticut (41.2), Marquette (43.3), St. John's (44.4), Georgetown (44.1), DePaul (44.1), Villanova (45.0).
- 3-point defense: A (29.9%), T (30.6), S (32.8), C. 
- Rebounding margin: Connecticut (+5.9), St. John's (+5.2), Providence (+4.1), Seton Hall (+1.8).

Connecticut (+10.6) and St. John's (+8.9) led the Big East in scoring margin per game in conference play with Villanova (+4.3) next and Creighton the only other team with a positive scoring margin. Seton Hall (+5.6) and Connecticut (+5.4) led the league in blocked shots followed by St. John's (+4.3). Marquette, Seton Hall, Villanova, St. John's and UCONN led the league in steals per game (7.0 to 9.3). The best free throw shooting teams are Xavier (78.9%) and Creighton (76.9). Connecticut (18.6), Xavier (18.2) and St. John's (16.2) led the league in assists per game. Creighton (10.0) made the most 3-pointers per game with Xavier, Villanova and UCONN all 9-9.4 per game.  

Big East Tournament ATS Trends

- Big East quarterfinal teams with a bye are 16-9 ATS last 25 tournament games playing opponents off a first round game. 
- The last 9 first round Big East tournament games have gone Under the total. 
- Big East quarterfinal double-digit favorites are on a 13-3 ATS since 2006.
- Big East semifinal underdogs are 15-5 ATS since 2015.
- Big East championship games have gone 3-12 over/under the past 15 title games. 

Big Ten Tournament Schedule 

March 11-14, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
First Round: March 11
Quaterfinals: March 12
Semifinals: March 13
Finals: March 14 - 8:30pm ET on ESPN 

Matchups and Odds 

Wed., March 11 

Game 1: No. 8 Butler vs. No. 9 Providence (-1.5)
Game 2: No. 7 Marquette (-4) vs. No. 10 Xavier
Game 3: No. 6 DePaul vs. No. 11 Georgetown (pk) 

Thurs., March 12 - Quarterfinals 

Game 4: No. 1 St. John's vs. Game 1 winner
Game 5: No. 5 Creighton () vs. No. 4 Seton Hall (-3)
Game 6: No. 2 UCONN vs. Game 2 winner
Game 7: No. 3 Villanova vs. Game 3 winner 

Fri., March 13 - Semifinals 

Game 8: winners of games 4, 5
Game 9: winners of games 6, 7 

Sat., March 14 - Championship, 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX 

Check back daily for college basketball and conference tournament updates including matchups, odds, stats and select picks with information you can bet on. 

FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player. He's been covering major sports from a betting perspective for more than two decades from Las Vegas. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.