Hartley Henderson's annual picks for every Oscar category

The 2026 Oscars has a few toss up categories which is great from a betting perspective and there is a new category, Best Casting. It seems this was added to not only to coincide with the Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) and the BAFTA Awards category, but also to provide the voters a chance to vote for separate movies for best picture and best casting if they deem one movie was the most interesting and the other to have the best cast.

I'll give predictions for every Academy Awards category from Best Picture to Makeup and Hairstyling. So, let’s start with the top categories, like Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director. Odds for the major categories are posted from BetAnything and can be found at the top online sportsbooks. Odds for minor categories are courtesy of FanDuel.

Best Picture

One Battle After Another was listed as the best picture winner since the odds first came out and it has stayed the favorite thanks to wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice and several other film critics awards. Most importantly, it won the Producers Guild Award. The movie that features Leonardo DiCpario trying to rescue his daughter from a corrupt and evil revolutionary Colone (Sean Penn) is the type of movie that always does well at the Oscars, and there’s little reason not to view it as the clear favorite. However, another movie, Sinners, is now seen as a movie that can provide the upset. The movie was seen as an also ran after losing to Hamnet at the Golden Globes but its win for Best Cast at the Actor Awards and the late buzz for the movie has made it the only real contender to One Battle After Another. The 1930s set horror movie has gained a lot of notice lately as the lead actor Michael B. Jordan who plays Smoke and Stack won the SAG and seems to be on every talk show that will have him. That said, as mentioned earlier there is now a chance for the voters to choose One Battle After Another for Best Picture while voting for Sinners for Best Casting and Screenplay, which I believe is what will happen.

Prediction: One Battle After Another (-500 odds) will win this as it’s simply the best movie of the year.

Best Actor

This is a 2-way race. Timothee Chalamet was viewed as almost a sure thing after winning most Critics awards and The Golden Globe award for his performance in Marty Supreme, but he now has real competition from Michael B. Jordan after he won the Actor Award for best actor and that award is by far and away the biggest predictor of Oscars success. The BAFTA Award went to an actor that’s not even nominated for an Oscar, so it’s irrelevant. Chalamet has been nominated three times and lost each time, including last year when he was deemed a real threat for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in the movie A Complete Unknown. Chalamet has also come under some controversy for saying on social media that opera and ballet are dying arts which may hurt his chances too. Given how politically charged those comments are and the steam for Sinners, I’ll take Michael B. Jordan to win the award.

Prediction: Michael B. Jordan will win the award at –200 odds at BetAnything.eu, which is pretty good for a category that usually sees winners at odds of 1/10 or less.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley has won every award for her role as Agnes in Hamet and there is nothing to suggest she won’t win the Oscar as well.

Prediction: If you are the type that likes to wager $200 to win $1 then Jessie Buckley at -20000 odds is a sure thing.

Best Director

Like Buckley, Paul Thomas Anderson has won every award including most importantly the Directors Guild Award and would take a miracle for him to be defeated at the Academy Awards this year. Ryan Coogler for Sinners is getting some late buzz but has little real chance.

Prediction: Thomas Anderson at -3000 odds is a relatively sure thing.

Best Supporting Actor

For the longest time it seemed that Skellan Skarsgard was the one to beat after winning the Golden Globe and several early industry awards for his role in Sentimental Value, but Sean Penn has won everything else since, including the BAFTA Award and Actors Award. But, the movie Sentimental Value has received a bit of criticism of late as well which could hurt his chances. Sean Penn is also a Hollywood favorite, and it seems whenever he gets nominated the Academy wants to award him. Delroy Lindo can’t be completely discounted for his role in Sinners and Benicio Del Toro likely has little chance since the clear more significant actor in One Battle After Another was Penn.

Prediction: Sean Penn will win at odds of -335 and it’s too bad since after the Golden Globes he was a 3/1 outsider.

Best Supporting Actress

This could be the most competitive category of the night. Teyana Taylor was the overwhelming favorite for her role in One Battle After Another after winning some lead up industry awards and the Golden Globe Award, but her stock went way down after Winmu Mosaku beat her at the BAFTA Awards for her role in Sinners. And both their stock took a big tumble after Amy Madigan won both the Critics Choice Award and more importantly the Actor Award for her role in Weapons. As a result, you have three actresses all with a real shot and all at great odds. Madigan (-140) is the logical choice, but I have a hunch there will be a lot of voting for all three and Taylor (+200) is the actress that will have received most of the early votes before the Actor Awards which I think will push her to the win.

Prediction: Teyana Taylor at odds of +200 is my pick, although it will be close.

Best Casting

This new category sets up as a two horse race between the only two films with a shot at best picture One Battle After Another and Sinners. A different movie not nominated in this category won the BAFTA Awards. I think it’s clear that there is a difference between the most enjoyable movie and the best acted movie so it’s nice they added this category. And the fact that Sinners has far more actors in key roles plus its win at the Actor Awards will propel it to victory.

Prediction: Sinners at odds of -340 is my pick to win this, while One Battle After Another will still win best picture (seee above).

Best Original Screenplay

The Writers Guild Award is the best predictor in this category of which film will win the Oscar. Two out of every three winners of this award since 2000 have won the Oscar and most times when a film does not win the Oscar it is because it wasn’t nominated. The WGA Award this year went to Sinners, as did the BAFTA Award. Marty Supreme is the only other movie that has any shot, but it would be a major upset.

Prediction: Sinners at -1250 odds is a lock 

Best Adapted Screenplay

One Battle After Another won the WGA Award and the BAFTA and like Sinners for Original Screenplay is a lock. Hamnet will get some votes but won’t win.

Prediction: One Battle After Another at -1000 will win this award.

Best Animated Feature

KPop Demon Hunters won the Annie Award, the Golden Globe and the Critics Award and the Producers Guild Award. Zootopia 2 won the BAFTA Award but that will be the only award it wins. There are some upset possibilities coming in later categories, I promise.

Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters is a shoo-in at odds of -1250 will win. 

Best Original Song

This seems to be a race between two songs - Golden from Kpop Demon Hunters, and I Lied to You from Sinners. The fact that the Oscars has chosen to only have those two songs performed live at this year’s Oscars pretty much means all others have no chance. Golden won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and the Hollywood Music Award. It also won a Grammy for the Best Song written for Visual Media. I Lied to You also won a Hollywood Music Award and Sinners won the main music award at a BAFTA event which may help it more for score than for best song, but it could help in this category too.

Prediction: Golden at -1250 odds will win this just because it’s more acclaimed.

Best International Film

This is the second real competitive category after Supporting Actress. Sentimental Value is the favorite considering it’s nominated for 9 Oscars including best picture and casting and won both the BAFTA and a Cannes Festival Award. The Norwegian picture is the one to beat. The Secret Agent, a Brazilian film, can give it a run for the money, however. It has been getting a lot of momentum of late and is nominated for four major Oscars, including best picture, casting and its main actor Wagner Moura is nominated for best actor even though he has no chance of winning. It also beat Sentimental Value at the Golden Globes. One upset possibility is It Was Just an Accident. The movie had huge critical acclaim receiving a 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and won several French awards, including the Cannes Festival Award. It seems like the buzz, however, has dropped off and the odds keep going up making it an unlikely winner.

Prediction: The Secret Agent will pull off a mild upset at +185 odds.

Best Film Editing

The Film Editing Award (Eddie) is a great predictor of Oscar success and it went to Sinners for Feature Film and One Battle After Another for Comedy or Theatrical Film. The BAFTA Award went to One Battle After Another. The Critics Award, however, went to the movie F1 and many are equating that movie with Top Gun: Maverick which was nominated for many editing awards although it lost the Oscar for editing in 2023. This award more often than not is given to the Best Picture winner, which makes One Battle After Another the favorite in my opinion.

Prediction: One Battle After Another should win this at odds of -340.

Best Cinematography:

The ASC Award is the most important industry award and it went to One Battle After Another. The BAFTA Award went to One Battle After Another, and the Critics Choice Award went to Train Dreams. Sinners failed to win any Cinematography Awards, but it won for cinematic and box office achievement at the Golden Globes which is the closest award to that category at those awards. Sinners is still deemed to have a chance. That said since One Battle After Another has won pretty much every cinematography award so far, there’s no reason not to expect it win here too.

Prediction: One Battle After Another at odds of -320 seems to be a good bet at fairly decent odds given the competition.

Best Production Design

The award that is given for how a film looks and rarely goes to the Best Picture winner. The best predictor for this category is the Art Directors Guild Awards which hands out awards for period feature film, contemporary film and fantasy film. Those awards went to Frankenstein for Period Film, One Battle After Another for Contemporary Film and an unnominated film for Fantasy Film. The BAFTA award went to Frankenstein. There seems to be a big push to get Sinners this award, but I think Frankenstein will get the most votes.

Prediction: Frankenstein at -600 seems like a pretty sure thing

Best Sound

This seems to be a two-horse race between F1, which is the big favorite and Sinners. F1 is the obvious choice given that sound is the main part for a movie following Formula One racing, plus it won the BAFTA award and the AMPS award. But I think the Academy will want to award Sinners beyond best casting and score and I think this may be a place where it can do so. Moreover, sound is a major part of the movie Sinners.

Prediction: I’m taking Sinners at +430 to pull off a major upset, defeating F1.

Best Score

Sinners has won almost every single award for best score leading into this and will win here too at odds of -1250.

Best Documentary Feature

I always like this category because it often features upsets. The Critics Choice Documentary Awards chose The Perfect Neighbor, the Producers Guild chose My Mom Jayne, which isn’t nominated, the BAFTA awards chose Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and the Directors Guild Award chose 2000 Meters to Andriivka, which also isn’t nominated. Another film, Come See Me in the Good Light, about a cancer patient who wants to see her while she’s still well is also getting some recognition. The Perfect Neighbor is a documentary following the murder in 2023 of 35 year-old Ajike Owens by 58 year-old Susan Lorincz, where a mild dispute led to the fatal shooting and the follow up documented coverage of a race war that followed in the state and whether the stand your ground law in the state should apply to such an egregious event. Mr. Nobody Against Putin followed a Russian who documents Putin’s attempt to hide what was happening from the public after Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022.

So, the question is which subject matter will appeal most to the Academy? All three movies have had high acclaim, and The Perfect Neighbor is on Netflix giving it an advantage, but I think there’s still more interest in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war than a race-based shooting, so I’ll take Mr. Nobody Against Putin to pull this off.

Prediction: It will be close, but I’ll take Mr. Nobody Against Putin to pull off the upset at +250 odds.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar Fire and Ice is a lock at -3300 as it won every major industry award. F1 technically has a shot at the upset, but the visual effects were not as dramatic plus some of the scenes were just downright silly to any Formula One fan.

Prediction: Avatar Fire and Ice at -1100 odds is a pretty sure thing.

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein has most of the awards for this including the BAFTA and Costume Design Guild award for Period Film. One Battle After Another won the Costume Design Guild Award for Contemporary Film and Wicked 2 won for Fantasy Film. But neither of the last two are nominated. Costumes are what makes the film so spectacular. Sinners is second choice on the Oscars betting board but won’t win.

Prediction: Frankenstein at -900 odds is a good bet.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

All the awards in this category so far, including the BAFTA Award and the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild Award for Period film, went to Frankenstein, so there’s really no reason to expect that it will change here.

Prediction: Frankenstein at -1000 should pull this off easily.

Short Films

As usual for these films I turn to my friend who is a self-described expert in these things and has a good record. His predictions are Two People Exchanging Saliva (+125 odds) for live action short, All the Empty Rooms (-160) for documentary short, and Retirement Plan (+500) for animated short.

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