Picks, props and profiles for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill

The Florida Swing continues with another Signature Event at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club in Orlando. An elite field of 72 golfers shoot for a top prize of $4 million from a $20 million purse. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2024) is a two time winner of Arnies event and No. 2 Rory McIlroy (2016) won a decade ago. Russell Henley is the defending champion and currently ranked No. 7 in the world. 

Bay Hill Club

I'll save some time and repetative review of the course, and you can read my tournament preview of the Arnold Palmer Invitational from last year in Forbes. The Bay Hill Club remains a 7,466 yard par 72 with oversized Bermuda greens and overseed rygrass fairways and rough. Additional views of the course and more on their X feed, @APinv. A hole-by-hole aerial view and strategic overview provides more course insight. 

Odds to Win 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Leading favorites and contenders golf odds from BetOnline refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Odds adjust during and following rounds. 

+315 Scottie Scheffler
+900: Rory McIlroy
+1800: Tommy Fleetwood
+2200: Matt Fitzpatrick
+2500: Collin Morikawa
+2800: Xander Schauffele
+3000: Si Woo Kim
+3500: Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg
+4500: R. Henley, V. Hovland, H. English, 
+4500: C. Young, K. Kitayama, J. Knapp
+5500: Ryan Gerard, Gotterup, N. Hojgaard
+6000: P. Cantlay, R. MacIntyre, S. Burns
+6000: R. Fowler, S. Straka, P. Coody
+6500: Keith Mitchell, Jacob Bridgeman
+7000: J. Rose, B. Griffin, A. Scott, M. McNealy
+8000: Keegan Bradley
+9000: Jordan Spieth, JJ Spaun, Aksha Bhatia
+10000-12500: J. Thomas, A. Noren, C. Conners
J. Day, R. Fox, N. Taylor, S. Stevens, M. Thorbjornsen

72-hole winning score: Over/Under 276.5 

Also, Top 10 finishing position odds on leading favorites and contenders include: Scheffler (-250), McIlroy (+100), Fleetwood (+180), Schauffele (+220), Fitzpatrick (+220), Morikawa (+250), Si Woo Kim (+250), Henley (+275), Matsuyama (+275), Young (+285), English (+300), Min Woo Lee (+300), Aberg (+325), and all +350 - Cantlay, MacIntyre, Kitayama, Gerard, Straka, Lowery (+385) and all +400 - Hovland, Griffin, Rose, Scott, Gotterup, McNealy, Burns, Fowler. 

Tournament Matchups And Props 

BetOnline offers an extensive range of 72-hole head-to-head player tournament matchups each week, along with select round-by-round matchups. Here are some of the notable tournament matchups and players to watch at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

With no regulated sports betting in Florida, golf fans in the Sunshine state can watch and wager at top online sportsbooks. BetOnline and BookMaker also allow bettors to wager on matchups, laying or taking 1.5 strokes. That’s what we did on Si Woo Kim at The American Express in his T6 finish after leading into the final round. Farmers Insurance Open matchup winners included Maverick McNealy, who also finished top 10. 

Fairway's Forecast and PGA tournament matchups started the year 3-0 and are now 10-3 following last week's 4-0 sweep in the Cognizant Classic. You can follow my weekly PGA Tour coverage, updates and picks at BetOnline and Vegas Sports Zone. Majors and Signature Events are also posted here at Off Shore Gaming Association, including The Genesis Invitational, where are tournament matchups went 2-0 including a big 'Dog winner on McIlroy over Scheffler. Also, OSGA members benefit and enjoy many contest offers from top online sportsbooks including the upcoming college basketball March Madness contests. 

- Scheffler (-200) vs. McIlroy (+165)
- Morikawa (-144) vs. Matsuyama (-112)
- Fleetwood (-129) vs. Schauffele (+108)
- Aberg (-110) vs. Lowry (-110)
- Hovland (-115) vs. Knapp (-105)
- Griffin (-110) vs. Min Woo Lee (-110)
- Fitzpatrick (-142) vs. Henley (+118)
- Burns (-125) vs. Rose (+105)
- Fowler (-132) vs. Spieth (-110)
- Berger (-110) vs. Hall (-110)
- Taylor (-112) vs. Noren (-108)
- English (-144) vs. Scott (+120)
- Bradley (-132) vs. Day (+110)
- McNealy (-110) vs. Gerard (-110)
- Si Woo Kim (-140) vs. MacIntyre (+117)
- Kitayama (-115) vs. Gotterup (-105)
- Mitchell (-144) vs. Echavarria (+120)
- Theegala (-117) vs. Thorbjornsen (-103)
- N. Hojgaard (-116) vs. Conners (-104)
- Bhatia (-122) vs. Straka (+102)

Stats

Dating back to the Hero Challenge in December, and the last eight PGA Tour events along with DP World Tour, there are some of the strokes gained stats leaders. 

Off the Tee: Scheffler is No. 1 and top 5 include McIlroy and Fleetwood.

Approach: Si Woo Kim is No. 1 and top 5 are Lowry, Hovland, Matsuyama, McIlroy.

Tee to Green: McIlroy and Scheffler are 1-2 followed by Si Woo Kim, Fleetwood, Lowry, Matsuyama, Morikawa, Scott, Cantlay, Gotterup.

Putting: Bridgeman, MacIntyre, Knapp, Scheffler

Around the Green: Matsuyama, Moore, Scheffler, Spaun, Griffin, Hall, Fleetwood, Bradley. Russell Henley led the field in ATG and 3rd in Tee to Green to win last year's Arnold Palmer. Invitational. In 2024, Scheffler won and was first in T2G, ATG and OTT and 5th in Putting.  

The Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Fairway’s Favorites: McIlroy, Fitzpatrick, Aberg  
Fairway’s Longshots: Hovland, Fowler, Mitchell, Straka
Fairway Fliers: Spieth, Fox, Ford

Top 20: Hovland

Tournament Matchups

- Hovland (-115) over Knapp (-105)

Notables:

Beyond the elite players and API winners Scheffler and McIlroy, who are also the two leaders in Strokes Gained per round at Bay Hill, here are some other stats and finishes of notable players. 

Morikawa - 2 top 10's in the API including 2nd last year. Winner this year and solid current form. 
Fitzpatrick - 6 top 15 finishes in 10 API starts including a 4-year stretch starting in 2019 of 2nd and three top 10s. Top 5 in SG: T2G and Total over his last 36 rounds.
Aberg: 3 top 25 finishes in three API starts.  
Spieth: Top 5 in API in 2021 and 2024. 
Hovland: Tied for 2nd API in 2022 and top 10 in 2023. 
Henley: Winner of API last year and T4 in 2024. 
Lowry: 3rd in 2024 and top 10 last year. 
Rose: T8 last year, but missed cut and WD previous 5 years API.

Check back for additional stats and player profiles as time permits. 

Next week it's The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass, where I provided player profiles and notable trends and stats to review from last year's event. Rory McIlroy is defending champion, and the players will shoot for a huge first place prize of $4.5 million. 

FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player based in Las Vegas. He's been covering major sports including the PGA Tour from a betting perspective for two decades. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more insight and information you can bet on.