NFL Prediction: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills



A look at the Sunday NFL matchup between the Patriots and the Bills.

Preview and prediction for the Patriots/Bills matchup

Since the beginning of the 2004 season, New England has gone 29-3 straight up against the Buffalo Bills, covering in 18 of those games. The Patriots have won the last seven meetings, with five wins coming by a dozen or more points, covering in four of those games. However, the Patriots have hit a historic low, losing three games in a row. The last time that happened was all the way back in 2002, when the Chargers, the Dolphins and the Packers beat the Patriots. The quarterbacks of those teams? Drew Brees (yes, he started with the Chargers), Jay Fiedler and Brett Favre.

Can Josh Allen get his first win against the Patriots in four tries, despite his struggles in recent games? Or will New England take advantage of the fact that they seem to live inside the Bills’ heads?

NFL: New England at Buffalo

When: Sunday, November 1, 2020, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
Radio: 98.5 FM The Sports Hub Boston / WGR 550 AM Buffalo
JAZZ Sports Odds: Buffalo -3.5, Total 43

Why the Patriots Will Win

The Patriots, all of a sudden, have questions on both sides of the ball that Tom Brady's play had managed to camouflage. Their defense is suddenly failing to bring deception. The 49ers started their game on Sunday with a nine-play, 75-yard drive that led to a three-yard touchdown. Devin McCourty would get an interception later Buffalo Bills free pickin the first quarter, but for most of the day, the 49ers could do whatever they wanted on offense.

The New England offense had even more problems, as Cam Newton had three interceptions (one on a tipped pass that should have been caught). Newton has looked extremely off since returning from COVID-19 infection, raising the question of how serious his infection was, and whether those side effects are affecting his ability to compete. Jarrett Stidham came on in relief in the fourth quarter – but he threw a pick as well.

Why the Bills Will Win

Buffalo started the season with Josh Allen looking like an MVP candidate, rolling to an easy 3-0 record. Three weeks later, they sit at 4-2, after getting routed by the Titans, losing to the Chiefs – both at home – and then barely escaping MetLife Stadium with an 18-10 win over the (now) 0-6 Jets. Buffalo Bills free pickThe COVID-19 infection had four of the Bills’ tight ends out. Four! Also, the Bills had some linebackers and cornerbacks on the same COVID list.

Then, Josh Allen couldn't hit his receivers, and when the team started with 14 straight passing plays and nothing happened, the Bills gave up the ball too quickly – and the Jets scored 10 points on their first three drives against a decimated Buffalo defense. Finally, Buffalo had a sustained drive before halftime, going into the locker room down “just” 10-6. The defense came alive after halftime, holding the Jets to three straight three-and-outs and then snagged an interception. On the day, the Bills swiped two passes and logged six sacks. The offense, though, remains a huge question. Can they figure things out before Bill Belichick shows up?

The Final Word

This is a great opportunity for the Bills to go back to basics on offense and mow down a Patriots defense that is having a difficult time now that more and more of their tendencies are on film. We see the Bills winning and covering as Josh Allen picks up more of his early-season confidence.


Sign-up for the OSGA Newsletter!

Every week get news and updates, exclusive offers and betting tips delivered right to you email inbox.