NFL Week 3 Picks and Insights

The NFL Week 3 schedule features six division games and 10 winless teams looking to avoid an 0-3 start to the season. Six of those teams are in the AFC including the defending AFC champs Kansas City Chiefs. The Miami Dolphins are now 0-3 after they lost Thursday night at Buffalo with the Bills one of 10 undefeated teams.  

Teams that start the season 0-2 have made the NFL Playoffs less than 10% of the time since NFL alignment / realignment to 32 teams in 2002. Playbook Sports also notes only one of those 18 teams (from 190 that started 0-2) made it to the Super Bowl. Only Houston (2023) and Cincinnati (2022) made it to playoffs the past six years and the Bengals got the the AFC Championship game before losing. The 2007 New Yor Giants are the only team to start 0-2 and win the Super Bowl, over the undefeated New England Patriots as 2 touchdown underdogs!

In addition, since 2010, winless teams in the NFL are 23-35-1 SU but 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more (VSiN). The ugly Dolphins covered in this role Thursday night to kickoff Week 3, and we're on the Browns and Giants side as home 'Dogs Sunday. 

NFL 'Dogs Not Barking Or Biting

NFL underdogs were pulling off big wins early last season sending many bettors and NFL survivor players to the sidelines. But the chalk is prevailing to start the 2025 season as favorites and moneyline parlays are sending online sportsbooks to the payout window.

No underdogs of 4 or more points have won outright yet this season. In Week 2, favorites as such went 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS, and we lost with two of the big 'Dogs Jets and Bears, who were both brutal in 20+ point losses as part of our NFL Week 2 picks and opinions that went 3-3 ATS Sunday. The rushing numbers and projections didn't materialize in some contests including Jets and Bears losers. 

This week's rushing edge projections based on point of attack play on both sides of the ball and more stats and injury information favor the Falcons,  Commanders and Ravens in a bounce-back pound the ground game Monday night hosting the Lions in a big watch and wager contest for the leading online sportsbooks. 

Pro Football Focus rates the Raiders rushing efficiency last in the league and the Commanders No. 1, but QB Jayden Daniels status needs to be known for Sunday. The Las Vegas Raiders are averaging just 62 rushing yards per game through two games to rank No. 31 after finishing last in the league last season. The Raiders play early West to East Week 3 game on six days rest off a Monday Night home loss the division rivals LA Chargers. The Commanders return home with 10 days prep off a Thursday loss last week to Green Bay. Situational edges along with point of attack play point to a Washington win. 

NFL Week 3 Odds And Picks

See the matchups and odds below, and note betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals, and division games in bold.

Miami at Buffalo (-11.5), 50
Indianapolis (-4) at Tennessee, 43.5
Atlanta (-5.5) at Carolina, 44
Las Vegas at Washington (-3.5), 44
Green Bay (-8 / 8.5) at Cleveland, 41.5
Cincinnati at Minnesota (-3), 42.5
LA Rams at Philadelphia (-3.5), 44.5
Pittsburgh (-1.5) at New England, 44.5
NY Jets at Tampa Bay (-6.5), 43.5
Houston at Jacksonville (-1.5), 43.5
Denver at LA Chargers (-2.5 / 3), 46
New Orleans at Seattle (-7.5), 41.5
Dallas (-1.5) at Chicago, 50.5
Arizona at San Francisco (-2.5), 45.5
Kansas City (-6 / 6.5) at NY Giants, 45 - SNF
Detroit at Baltimore (-4.5), 52.5 - MNF

Picks: Browns, Chargers, Giants
Opinions: Bengals, Rams

Weeks 2-3 Picks and Opinions 9-2 ATS.

3-team parlay: Commanders, Bengals, Chargers 
2-team 'Dog parlay: Browns, Giants 

Note advance Week 4 lookahead lines include Browns (+9.5) at Detroit. Yet Cleveland is up to +8.5 at home this week vs. Green Bay at select top sportsbooks. The Giants are +5.5 at home vs Chargers next week, and yet taking a TD+ at home vs. Chiefs this Sunday despite Chargers clearly proving to be stronger than Chiefs so far this season. Perception vs. Reality. 

Denver at LA Chargers

The Chargers (2-0) can take a decisive early-season division lead with their third straight win over a division opponent to start the season. Justin Herbert has thrived in a more open offense and top-5 pass protection while targeting his WRs at a greater than 80% rate. Despite missing their top OL, the Chargers can have some success on the ground too after the Broncos stout defense allowed Colts RB Taylor to run wild last week for 165 yards. Broncos QB Bo Nix struggles are likely to continue against a stronger Chargers front seven (minus Khalil Mack) and top secondary that limited two better division quarterbacks in Weeks 1 and 2. The Chargers defense also limits running backs in receiving and is stronger against play action. Nix is throwing more INTs with a league-high 8% turnover worth pass rate and he ranks last in the league in air yards per attempt (5.5). The Broncos defense leads the league in QB pressure rate, and this game projects for a little less scoring despite the Broncos 29-28 loss last week. A Chargers win is projected and the SU winner of competitively-lined NFL games (6 points or less) is a > 80% ATS historical play.

NFL Player Props

Broncos QB Nix: Under 217.5 passing yards.

Follow more Tips, Trends, Totals and Teasers and @FairwayJay on X. Check back for player props and any additional game day picks, stats and updates along with the Monday Night Football feature Lions-Ravens. 

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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.