Expansion, a new bill and predictions markets take center stage

Last week the SBC Canadian Gaming Summit, ranmed in 2026 as SBC Summit Canada, took place in Toronto and there were some interesting stories that were discussed involving B2C and B2B companies in the industry. There were also some interesting discussions on legal and regulatory happenings throughout the country that could have a major effect on any company currently operating in Ontario or thinking of entering Ontario or another market in the future. Here are the highlights.

Expansion into Alberta

Almost two years ago Alberta announced its decision to follow the province of Ontario and launch an open market for gambling operators. It was put on hold as the province aimed to ensure that all possible scenarios and concerns were addressed, but at the conference Dave Nally, the Alberta Minister of Service and Red Tape Reduction, announced a concrete launch date for Alberta along with some details on fees and taxes. The launch date is on July 13th of this year and the registration fee per operator is a non-refundable $50,000 one-time payment to Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC). In addition, each operator must pay an annual $150,000 license fee for every skin they offer.

So if Entain launches all the same sites it did in Ontario, it would be required to pay $150,000 for each of BetMGM, SportsInteraction, BWin, Party Gaming and Party Poker for a total of $750,000. The fee is $50,000 higher than Ontario, but it appears that unlike Ontario, the $150,000 fee covers all verticals, so BetMGM would not need separate license for sports, casino and poker.
The tax on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) is 20% which is the same as Ontario. but the province also added an additional takeout of 2% going to Alberta First Nations and 1% going to programs to address problem gambling. So in total, the tax for gambling companies is 23%.

In his keynote Nally noted that Alberta is the wealthiest province in the country thanks to its large oil and gas infrastructure, along with its tech and cattle industry, and the average income in the province of five million people (4 million of legal gambling age), is about $76,000, approximately $8,000 higher than the Canadian average. Moreover, household income is almost $15,000 higher than the Canadian average, but housing costs are almost half in Alberta of what they are in Ontario (specifically in Calgary vs. Toronto) and rent is two-thirds the cost of that in Ontario. As well there is no provincial sales tax in Alberta, so prices of food and gas are far lower than the rest of the country, meaning Albertans have much more disposable income that they can use towards gambling.

It’s no surprise then that there are just over 20 operators that have received licenses that are ready and anxious to start operating while another 50 are in the pipeline according to Nally. While the province said it piggybacked on Ontario’s model, it also implemented some Alberta-specific decisions to ensure that the province’s culture is reflected in all advertising and as mentioned it put in very specific rules to address potential problem gambling concerns. The province had hoped to launch prior to the Calgary Stampede, which is taking place from July 3rd to July 12th, but operators asked for a little more time to get set up and the AGLC was only too happy to comply. Like Ontario, the AGLC has a separate subsidiary called the Alberta iGaming Corporation (AiGC) that will be the official registrant and regulator for the igaming market.

Ontario expects a channelization rate of 90% by calendar year end

When Ontario decided to launch its open market on April 4th, 2022 they told all offshore gaming operators with a few exceptions, that they could get an Ontario license as long as they stopped offering the grey market product to Ontario residents. Many companies that were catering to Ontario including, but not limited to, Bet365, SportsInteraction, Pinnacle, 888, PokerStars, Betway, Jackpot City, PlayOJo and a couple of others that closed shop after launching did exactly that. Of course that left a lot of other companies on the sidelines who were only too happy to continue operating in the grey and continue catering to their Ontario customers who very often were large bettors not anxious to set up with a site like BetMGM. The effect of the legal launch was significant, as most Ontario bettors started playing with iGaming licensed sites. The channelization rates which are described as people betting online with iGaming Ontario licensed sites compared to non iGaming Ontario sites, immediately went from 30% pre-launch to 85% in 2023. Underground betting obviously is not included, so anyone betting with their local bookie is not included in the stats.

A slide shown at the event and pictured here shows that prior to the launch, the channelization rate was approximately 30% which was bettors wagering on sports and casinos through the Ontario Lottery and Gaming (OLG) website and app, which was the only operator licensed to legally provide those services to Ontario residents. In 2023 the channelization rate rose to 85%, rose another percent to 86% in 2024, dropped slightly to 83% in 2025 and the stated goal and expectation is that the channelization rate will be 90% for 2026.

The immediate rise in 2023 is obvious since most Ontario residents not playing with OLG were wagering with sites like Bet365 and PokerStars, which at the time were not licensed and new very popular operators including FanDuel, DraftKings, BetCaesars and BetMGM entered the fray. But the fact that 15% (or even 10% if the 90% turns out to be accurate) are still play offshore is a bit concerning to the regulator and rightly so. While no specific companies were mentioned in the discussion it is well known that Bodog (which in February rebranded to Canadians as Ozoon), leads the pack of companies of unregulated operators. This is followed by various other companies like BetOnline, BetUS, BetAnything and some casino sites. If one goes to a website like Bodog.com, .eu or .net, they are now just news sites. It appears the rebranding of Bodog was initiated after Manitoba won a lawsuit against Bodog in last year in the Manitoba courts which required that Bodog geoblock any attempts by Manitoba residents to access bodog.eu or bodog.net web domains. So Bodog just rebranded. This rebranding could also save Bodog from bans being initiated by its regulator requiring provincial media companies to block any ads from the company.

Blocking non-iGaming companies

In an effort to reach the 90% or higher threshold, David Phillips of the AGCO put up a slide, shown here, saying that the regulator would be blocking all non-iGaming Ontario regulated sites by approaching advertising partners, social media platforms, game suppliers, app stores, domain hosts, social media platforms, ISP providers and payment processors. The first step was clearly social media platforms since ads for the non-iGaming operators rarely show up on places like Facebook, Instagram or X. Payment processors are apparently next on the list but since the majority of payments for offshore betting is by cryptocurrency that will prove tough to enact. Nevertheless, Canadians can still often fund their offshore accounts with credit cards or etransfers (interac) and blocking them would require the government to deal directly with the banks. But as was seen in the U.S. when they passed regulations for the UIGEA, identifying all illegal gambling transactions is very time consuming, if not impossible.

The situation with prediction markets and sweepstakes in Canada

In Canada all securities trading, including stocks and commodities, is overseen by the provinces. And per rules, the only legal way to trade in Canada is with companies authorized by the security commissions, meaning Kalshi and Polymarket are not allowed to trade in Canada. Nevertheless companies have tried to enter the market anyways, including Polymarket who operated from 2020 and 2023 and were charged by the Ontario Securities Commission for violating the securities rules of the province. In May of 2025 Polymarket paid a $200,000 fine for that violation and agreed to a two year ban from ever entering the Ontario market should things change and they do receive a license to operate. Similarly, Robinhood, which does not currently operate in Canada, bought out WonderFi technologies, which trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange, likely hoping to use that entity to launch a prediction market site, should Ontario rules change.

It seemed therefore, that the issue relating to prediction markets in Canada was decided, but last year the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), which is described as a Canadian self-regulatory organization that oversees all investment dealers, mutual fund dealers, and trading activity on Canada’s debt and equity marketplaces, granted WealthSimple the rights to offer futures contracts on economic, environmental and financial futures declaring they are binary options. In better words, if and when WealthSimple, (and apparently QuestTrade, which also asked for the rights to offer those contracts) goes live with those options, customers will be able to bet on a yes/no contract for things like whether it will snow in Toronto on Christmas day or whether the Canadian GDP will be up at month’s end. Naturally those contracts are of little interest to most sports bettors, but like in the United States, if the CIRO convinces the Canadian Securities Administrators and provincial security commissions to consider allowing trading on sports contracts, things could change. It’s highly unlikely any Canadian agency would allow bets on war or death markets like happens with Kaslshi and Polymarket currently.

Panelists representing various law firms acknowledged that even though Canada doesn’t have a CFTC and wagering on prediction markets is illegal, Canadians are still accessing companies like Kalshi or Polymarket possibly by using American accounts or friends and family and betting into the American contracts. And since those markets are set and wagered into from outside of Canada there is nothing Canada’s regulators can do about it. The big concern with the prediction sites, aside from the fact it takes away money from the liccensed and regulated sites, is that there are no safeguards in place at the prediction sites, so there is really no way to ensure that underage or problem gamblers aren’t betting. And almost everyone at the SBC conference, including iGaming Ontario representatives, acknowledged that if someone really wants to access the illegal markets they can. Consequently, there was some discussion as to whether the regulators should look at coming up with some concrete rules that deal with exchanges so that if things changed they aren’t caught with their pants down.

Right now there is only one licensed betting exchange in Ontario called STXBet, but it only takes bets on sports and currently the volume is low. Like FanDuel and DraftKings, it is listed as sports betting provider. While volume for that site is low currently, it is notable that Canada was a major market for Betfair before they merged with Paddy Power and left the Canadian market. Previously, Matchbook had many accounts, so it’s well known there is a demand for the product. The key, however, for future success would be to allow betting on things other than sports, including possibly the stock market, oil prices, gold prices, awards shows, etc. If it proves successful it could also possibly spur on interest by other operators to launch an exchange, including FanDuel, which is owned by Flutter which runs Betfair.

Discussions also came up regarding the Canadian situation for sweepstake sites. For the most part provincial authorities have ignored them, but as sweepstakes sites have expanded, the AGCO clearly thought they were a concern in Ontario and took action against suppliers who cater to both regulated sites and sweepstakes sites stating integrity concerns. The AGCO fined Relax Gaming and Arrise Solutions $40,000 for providing digital slots and table games to both the regulated and unregulated market in Ontario, including to sites that offer prizes for winning something of monetary value for entering the supposedly free to play markets. Thus far it has not been challenged, but the consensus was that if a vendor offers something that looks like gambling - it will be noticed and addressed by regulators, so they are best off seeking a license to operate or at least seek clarity on whether their offering violates provincial rules.

Bill S-211 (the National Framework on Sports Betting Advertising Act)

In May 2025 a bill was introduced in the Canadian senate to provide a national framework on sports betting advertising. The hope of Senator Marty Deacon when introducing the bill was to provide guidelines for sports betting advertising that would be applicable in every province. Bill S-211 passed in both the Senate and House of Commons and is now being sent to the Standing Committee on Canadian Heritage for a vote. The question came up in one panel of whether this bill is a good idea or if it is even enforceable.

The bill has four main objectives:
Advertising restrictions – including banning advertising during live broadcasts
National health standards – including mandatory standards for problem gambling
Information sharing – requiring provinces to share resources relating to everything from problem and underage betting to the effect of advertising on minors
CRTC Review – requiring the regulator for radio and telecommunications to ensure that they are doing everything to ensure no harmful advertising is allowed

The big question which came up is whether this bill is enforceable, since all decisions related to gambling were relinquished by the federal government to the provinces in 1985 when the criminal code was rewritten. So a nationwide ban would have to be agreed to province-by-province, which is unlikely. Quebec representatives have already said that any federal rule relating to gambling is irrelevant and will not be followed by that province and Ontario has indicated that they already have very strict rules in place addressing all the issues of Bill S-211, so it is just replication. Sports leagues and broadcasters also said that they rely on revenue from sponsorships and advertising, so any ban could affect their bottom line and lead to large layoffs.

A spokesperson for the Canadian Gaming Association, as well as some gaming sites, added that they initiated very strict rules for issues like underage and problem gambling, as well as ensuring the integrity of bets, so the bill is trying to address a problem that doesn’t exist. It was also widely agreed to that that any federal ban would be struck down by the Supreme Court before its enacted so the whole bill is a waste of time and resources.

Potential new Canadian markets

During the discussions a question came up on which provinces are considering an open gambling market similar to Ontario and Alberta. Here were the findings by province:

British Columbia

The province is looking at potentially allowing some new operators to compete with Playnow.com (the provincial monopoly), but unlike Ontario they are not currently interested in creating a wide-open market for all comers. So a few new operators may launch in the province but don’t expect the breadth of operators like in Ontario or Alberta.

Saskatchewan

While there were representatives from the province at the conference they are not interested in an open market. That is mostly due to the large first nations influence with casino betting who demand a say in any discussions of expanded betting.

Manitoba

They currently also use Playnow.com, but have lifted regulations that would have prevented an open market. Consequently, they are now working with both land-based gambling facilities, first nations and casino operators to explore the possibility of an open iGaming market in the province, although any expansion to something like Ontario there is likely years away.

Quebec

It seemed forever that Quebec would never allow an open market, but the election of a new provincial leader has enticed the Quebec Online Gambling Coalition to approach the new government and push for a new iGaming market in an effort to increase revenue for the province. It seems the new government is more open to exploring the idea and studies are being launched to investigate the potential benefits and pitfalls of an open market.

Atlantic Provinces

Right now all gambling is controlled by the Atlantic Gambling Corporation (AGC), but due to very poor gambling revenues in New Brunswick there have been calls by the New Brunswick Finance Minister, Rene Legacy, to launch a study to see if expanding iGaming in that province could help boost revenues. It is unclear if New Brunswick can do it on its own, but it seems willing to at least explore the possibility. It doesn’t appear that Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island (PEI) or Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) have any plans to even consider an open market going forward, although the population of PEI or NL on its own wouldn’t make it feasible for operators to launch there unless it’s part of an Atlantic Canada bundle.

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