NFL Monday Night Football Week 1 Broncos-Chiefs Preview, Picks And Props

A Week 1 Monday Night Football feature and key AFC West game to kick off the 2026 season between the defending division champions Denver Broncos and decade of dominance Kansas City Chiefs, who had won 9-straight AFC West titles until the Broncos took the division crown last season. 

Stats and Key Players 

Denver advanced to the AFC Championship Game last season, but lost QB Bo Nix to injury in the closing minute of the AFC Divisional Round game. Nix returns to start the 2026 season against the Chiefs following two offseason ankle surgeries. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes also returns from injury following a torn ACL and LCL suffered last December. The Chiefs added former Seahawks star RB Kenneth Walker III to strengthen their rushing attack. 

Denver finished 15-4 last season including the playoffs, but were just 2-6 ATS on the road while boasting the No. 2 yards per game defense (278 ypg) and No. 3 scoring defense (18.3 ppg). The Chiefs fell off sharply last season to 6-11 and missed the playoffs, yet Kansas City is the -2.5 point favorite over the Broncos in Week 1. Mohomes enters his 10th NFL season, and he started his career 12-0 against the Broncos, and is now 13-2 SU overall. The past dozen games shows the Kansas City 8-4 against Denver, but the Broncos are 8-4 ATS. The Under is 6-0 in the recent series and 6-1 in Denver’s last 7 Week 1 games, while KC is 10-1 Over in its last 11 Week 1 games. 

Spread and Total
Chiefs -2.5, total 43.5

Monday Night Football #NFLWeek1 division rivals #DENvsKC. Some added Sharp Football stats.

KC -2.5, total 43.5.

Broncos start season with PFFs #1 rated offensive line & #6 defensive line. Chiefs #8 & 19.

Division home teams went 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS Sunday. Plus 49ers as 'Dog… pic.twitter.com/oN2N2EQbhy

— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) September 14, 2026

More on QB Mahomes and DEN-KC matchups 

In the last four games between the Broncos and Chiefs with Mahomes starting at quarterback, Kansas City has scored 19 or fewer points with Mahomes passing for just 6.6 yards per pass, 3 TD's, and 4 interceptions. 

Denver's pass defense was elite last season and should be pressuring Mahomes often as he returns from injury. A heavy dose of RB Walker appears like a safe bet early in the game, but the Chiefs will also play their opening game without left tackle Josh Simmons as he deals with a lower back injury. 

The Broncos pass defense ranked No. 2 last season in these three catetories allowing less than 59% completion rate and just 6.3 yards per pass attempt with a 3.3% touchdown rate. The Broncos defense was also No. 1 in sack rate and No. 3 in pressure rate. When Denver pressured Mahomes last year, he was 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 87 yards with an interception and 3 sacks. 

Broncos QB Bo Nix led the NFL in pass attempts last season, but he completed 63.4% of his passes (23rd) at an average of just 6.4 yards per attempt (28th). That's on par with brutal QB Bryce Young. Nix averaged just 7.3 air yards per attempt (24th), and 25% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (27th) while only 28% were throws 10 or more yards downfield (30th). Nix also posted poor ratings when passing from outside the pocket, completing less than 50% of his passes at 5.0 yards per pass. Adding WR Jayden Waddle will surely help Nix and the passing game increase their bottom quartile ranking of passing plays gaining more than 10 yards (24%). 

Picks and Props 

Chiefs team total under 22.5 (+) or 23. 

Despite the high-scoring Week 1 results, Fairways Forecast Monday Night Football Opinion is on the game total Under between the Broncos and Chiefs. 

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. That includes a 7-year run at OSGA picking 57% ATS winners on only NFL underdogs. FairwayJay is also on the poker and sports scene in Las Vegas covering major sports plus industry conferences and events as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.