Indiana Hoosiers vs. Miami Hurricanes College Football Playoff Championship

 The 2025-26 college season comes to a close with the conclusion of the National Championship Game between the Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes on January, 19, 2026. Watch and wager with TV coverage on ESPN and kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida – the Hurricanes home field.

The Hoosiers are a -7.5 point favorite on game day with a game total of 47.5 points – nearly identical spread and total to last year’s National Championship Game win by Ohio State over Notre Dame, 34-23. The favorite has won and covered in six consecutive College Football Playoff National Championship Games, and we had the Buckeye's in last year's National Championship Game.

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Indiana-Miami Stats, Notes And Picks

Both Indiana (15-0) and Miami (13-2) are defensive dominators who came through the 12-team College Football Playoff with the No. 1 Hoosiers scoring a pair of blowout wins by 34+ points each over Alabama and Oregon. The No. 10 Hurricanes took out top-ranked teams Texas A&M and defending national champions Ohio State as underdog, and then a close contest and cover over Ole Miss in a back-and-forth one-score content with Miami scoring the last second touchdown in victory, 31-27 for a narrow spread win (for us). 

The advance line before Indiana and Miami won their national semifinal games was Indiana -5.5 over Miami. If these two teams had played in Week 1 at this same site, the line would have been flipped. Miami would have been at least a 7-point favorite over Indiana. So the Hoosiers power rating and rise up the rankings has shot through the roof this season with head coach Curt Cignetti (CigNatty) providing the greatest turnaround in college football history in just 2 years after being the worst power progam in history. Indiana is 26-2 the last 2 seasons under Cignetti, more wins than their previous five season's combined and their first Big Ten championship in 60 years. Indiana had three winning seasons in 30 years before Cignetti took over as Indiana's head coach.

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Standing in the way of the Hoosiers is not easy, as Indiana also features the Heisman Trophy winner QB Fernado Mendoza and a stronger, balanced offense than runs for 213 yards per game and passes  for 233 yards per game (Miami 150/248 with 173 rushing ypg in CFP). Mendoza also has the best Power Four quarterback under pressure rating with a 71.7 passing grade (PFF), while Miami QB Carson Beck had a paltry 7.6-yard average depth of target with Indiana's defense allowing just 4.8 yards after the catch per completion (top 15 country). But value seekers on Miami note the home field along with top defense like Miami, which led the nation with 54 sacks and a nation-best PFF team pass-rushing grade (92.5), which is another reason our preference is to under the game total. However, note too that Miami is alread without a cornerback and CB Xavier Lucas is suspended for the first half of the championship game for a targeting penalty against Ole Miss. 

Indiana and Miami are split in our four key defensive stats categories (DES) - points allowed, yards per play, yardage differential and yards per rush. 

Indiana is shooting to become the third straight Big Ten team to win the national title following Ohio State last year and Michigan the year prior with the Wolverines also finishing the season undefeated. Under head coach Curt Citnetti, Indiana is 19-1 SU and 16-4 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 

Playbook Sports provides more stats and ATS data with information you can bet on noting both Indiana (13-10) and Miami (24-14) beat Ohio State this season as their only common opponent. Indiana has the 'tale of the tape' stats edge over Miami in 15-of-20 offensive and defensive stat categories this season. 

I also note that Miami takes too many penalties, and the discipline edge and undervalued penalties stats favor Indiana by a wider margin.

Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS against other bowl teams this season and won the stats/yardage in 4-of-7 games with an average net stats edge of +87 yards per game. Most impressive is Miami's 3-0 SU/ATS run through the College Football Playoff against three top-ranked teams. Meanwhile, Indiana has dominated fellow bowl teams this season going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS with a stats edge in 7-of-9 games by an average net yards margin of 145 yards per game – including a 4-0 SU/ATS record versus CFP teams. 

The Hoosiers dominant defense held 11 opponents to seasonal lows in points, and six to season lows in yardage. Miami’s season lows points and scoring are 10 points and 278 yards at Texas A&M in the College Football Playoff. 

More stats, players to watch and keys to the game. 

Sharp money has come in on Miami just ahead of the game. But Indiana is still the healthier and stronger team overall with the 'Canes needing some turnovers and limit penalties to have a shot at the biggest national championship upset in more than 20 years. 

Leans: Miami and Under the total 
 
Player Prop Opinions 

- Indiana RB Black under 62.5 rushing yards
- Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt over 4.5 receptions and over 57.5 receiving yards 

Also, interesting side note is that Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal was an offensive line teammate of Fernando Mendoza Sr. at Christopher Columbus High School in the late 1980s. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Jr., this year’s Heisman Trophy winner, also attended the same high school in Miami. 

Final Bowl Season and CFB Records 

Posted throughout the bowl season and College Football Playoff at OSGA, all CFB Bowls (non CFP) picks and opinions finished 17-7 ATS (picks 5-3, opinions 12-4), and leans 7-5 ATS. All College Football Playoff picks and opinions through the semifinals 7-3 ATS (3-2 picks) plus 1-0 team props. All Bowls picks & opinions including CFP 24-10 ATS (70%). 

BetOnline provides added player props, odds boosts and live betting, in addition to the best odds for point spreads and total. Halftime betting is available as you enjoy more watch and wager action. Every day of the week, BetOnline customers can get greatly enhanced payouts on pre-selected parlays with Odds Booster. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.