October kicked off with NFL Week 4 Thursday night football and the Browns took down the Steelers as a small home underdog in a key AFC North contest in Cleveland to kick off our Week 4 tips, totals, teasers and trends report. The chaos continues with the Browns (3-1) in first place along with the Raiders (3-0) in the AFC West and Vikings (3-0) in the NFC North, who were also projected as last place division teams ahead of the 2026 NFL season. The Chiefs (3-0) and Raiders battle in Las Vegas to headline the NFL Week 4 card, while the Jaguars (2-1) and Bengals (2-1) battle in the jungle in Cincinnati with both teams also looking to remain in first place.
NFL Underdogs and ATS Stats
Many Fairway followers recall our 7-year run hitting 57% ATS posting only NFL underdog picks at OSGA. While we changed our format with more coverage from tips, totals, teasers and trends along with picks, props and parlays, it's still noteworthy and part of our weekly handicapping and research to look for betting opportunities and outright wins on underdogs. Home underdogs in particular are less popular public plays, despite often being more profitable with top payouts including moneylines. The Browns Week 4 win Thursday makes home underdogs 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS this season with Week 3 the best at 5-2 SU/ATS.
Sunday, Week 4 home underdogs include the Browns and Raiders in the AFC, along with the Giants, Buccaneers, Eagles and Panthers. The Commanders are an underdog in their designated 'home' game in London.
One of the reasons to add moneyline underdog bets to your portfolio is the added return. Also, from my proprietary data base and weekly box score stats I track in spread sheets, the straight up (SU) winner of a competitively priced NFL game (6 points or less) are 27-3-1 ATS this season. Either the underdog wins SU, or the favorite wins and covers with a vast majority of the time the spread not even coming into play. That doesn't mean you shouldn't just bet a bad number, say one that moves from -2.5 to -3, or -3 to -3.5 or -4, but you can reduce your wager or pass if you missed the best number. Also, know it's best to shot the best numbers at top online sportsbooks and get ahead of the moves as you're able earlier in the week, and watch the NFL weather reports to anticipate market moves on game totals.
#twitter_embed_1#
NFL Week 4 Matchups and Odds
Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks with top payouts refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.
| Game | Favorite | Total |
| Indianapolis vs Washington | IND -4 | 48.5 |
| New England at Buffalo | BUF -7 | 49 |
| NY Jets at Chicago | CHI -3 | 43 |
| Arizona at NY Giants | AZ -1 | 44 |
| Dallas at Houston | HOU -3 | 48 |
| Jacksonville at Cincinnati | CIN -2.5 | 51.5 |
| Green Bay at Tampa Bay | GB -3.5 | 38.5 |
| LA Rams at Philadelphia | LAR -3 | 42.5 |
| Tennessee at Minnesota | MIN -11.5 | 42.5 |
| Denver at San Francisco | DEN -2.5 | 48 |
| Kansas City at Las Vegas | LV -4.5 | 48 |
| LA Chargers at Seattle | SEA -7 | 42.5 |
| Detroit at Carolina | DET -3.5 | 51 |
| Atlanta at New Orleans | NO -2.5 | 48 |
NFL Week 4 select game analysis to be provided into the weekend along with any additional picks, opinions, stats, ATS and information you can bet on.
Our Week 2 picks went 5-2 ATS (3-1 picks, 2-1 opinions), and our Week 3 picks went 2-0, but 0-2 on opinions as we get fkd (again) with Rams blowing 16-0 halftime lead at Denver with a pick-6 and another blown call by the officials to rob the Rams. Our Week 3 'Dog parlay won, along with a 3-team teaser, and as mentioned in Week 3 picks report and figuring out football, refs and officials are one of the hazards of betting, along with injuries, which are mounting for more teams and many starting quarterbacks sidelined. Year to date NFL game/side picks posted at OSGA are 8-6 ATS (5-2 picks, 3-4 opinions).
NFL Week 4 Picks and Parlays
Picks: Raiders, Rams, Cowboys
Opinions: 49ers
3-team parlay: Rams, 49ers, Panthers
2-team 'Dog parlay: Raiders, Cowboys
Check out my weekly Raiders selections and coverage from Las Vegas, which are 4-0 on sides and totals, 1-0 on player props and 1-1 on leans. I add the Raiders to our picks this week at OSGA.
We're back on the Rams as road favorite this week (rare for us), and will update more matchups and stats of the Rams-Eagles game in Philadelphia over the weekend.
The Panthers host the Lions on Sunday night football, and we're evaluating more Week 4 injuries and updates including on the 49ers-Broncos game, and knowing too Carolina lost both cornerbacks last week and are now on injured reserve (IR). We bet the over in the Lions-Panthers game and added to our weekly Tips, Totals, Teasers and Trends report.
Week 4 Player Props
Week 4 player props to follow as available and researched looking for more matchup edges.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. That includes a 7-year run at OSGA picking 57% ATS winners on only NFL underdogs. FairwayJay is also on the poker and sports scene in Las Vegas covering major sports plus industry conferences, events and football media days. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.
