Betting NFL Week 1 - Tips, Totals And ATS Trends

Betting NFL Week 1

The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off next week following Labor Day and college football Week 1. A rare Wednesday night football game and Super Bowl rematch headlines NFL Week 1 action as the New England Patriots tackle the champion Seattle Seahawks on Sept. 9. That's followed by one of five Week 1 division games on Thursday between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in Australia. I've chipped-in some betting situations, systems, tips and trends plus additional information you can bet on along with the NFL Week 1 matchups and odds.

As a fundamental handicapper who analyzes stats and matchups, I'll add more situations, stats and proven profiles that can assist you in your handicapping and help you rush to the window as you battle to beat the top payout sportsbooks and the bookies who built the business. 

Fairway's Forecast will chip in more NFL coverage this season while adding other tips, totals and trends along with picks, props and parlays each week. We'll evaluate stats, schedules and key games impacting the betting markets at leading online sportsbooks. 

NFL Betting Data

NFL betting favorites won at a 66% straight up (SU) rate last season (2025), and 49% against the spread (ATS). Recall NFL favorites in the betting market went balistic the final eight weeks of the 2024 regular season, and the full season produced the highest rate of NFL favorites winning in nearly 20 years. Those 2024 NFL betting favorites rewarded more public bettors going 144-121-7 ATS, a 54.4% ATS win rate (5th highest all-time), according to data from Covers.com. The 195-77 straight up (SU) record by NFL favorites (71.7%) was the best performance and highest winning percentage since 2005 (74.9%). That included an absurd 80-28 SU record for road favorites. The 2023 and 2022 NFL seasons produced 68% and 64.9% straight up winners for favorites, and our NFL underdog picks went 11-1 ATS in December 2023 that included nine outright winners and a 7-0 ATS 'Dog log in Week 14. 

Last season there were seven NFL road favorites in Week 1, and this season five road favorites will drive public betting interest.

NFL Week 1 Betting Angles

Here are some betting angles supporting home underdogs in Week 1. 

Betting Angle: Divisional home underdogs are 19-16-1 straight up (SU) and 25-11 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 since 2009. I log weekly boxscore and betting data into spread sheets each week, and last season those home division 'Dogs were 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. Leave it to the Browns to outgain the Bengals 327 (4.6 yards per play) to 141 (2.9) and have a 22-11 first down advantage, only to lose 17-16. All four divisional home underdogs lost close games by 4 points or less, and three of them outgained their division foes by 186, 98 and 63 yards in defeat. Of course the Browns were -2 in turnover margin. The previous year in 2024, home division 'Dogs were 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS (Colts), and just 2-4 SU/ATS in 2023. 

Home 'Dogs overall in Week 1 last year were just 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS. There are four home underdogs in Week 1 this season, but just one home divisional 'Dog as the Giants (+3) host the Cowboys. 

Also, BetUS reports that all Week 1 underdogs have hit greater than 54% ATS the last 13 seasons going 111-93-4 ATS (7-9, 7-9 and 10-6 ATS last 3 years) with divisional 'Dogs 44-25-1 ATS (63.7%) home or away.

NFL Week 1 Games And Odds 

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals, and division games in bold. 

New England at Seattle (-3.5), 44.5 – Wed., Sept. 9
San Francisco vs. LA Rams (-4), 48 (Australia, Sept. 10) 

Sunday, Sept. 13 

Cleveland at Jacksonville (-8), 40.5
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-4), 50.5
Baltimore (-3.5) at Indianapolis, 48
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3), 41.5
Buffalo (-1) at Houston, 44.5
Chicago (-2.5) at Carolina, 47.5
NY Jets at Tennessee (-1.5), 39.5
New Orleans at Detroit (-7), 50
Arizona at LA Chargers (-10), 47.5
Miami at Las Vegas (-3.5), 41
Washington at Philadelphia (-5), 45.5
Green Bay at Minnesota (-1), 46
Dallas (-3) at NY Giants, 48
Denver at Kansas City (-2.5), 43.5 (Monday) 

Five division games in Week 1 and just four road favorites overall. Check back next week for added stats and our weekly picks, props and parlays along with any additional tips, totals and trends.

NFL Week 1 ATS Tips and Trends

Here are some tips, trends and ATS situations and systems with data provided by the Vegas Stats & Information Network and Action Network media and research teams. 

- NFL Week 1 double-digit favorites are 7-14 ATS since 2000. But there hasn't been such favorite since 2019. This season kicks off with the Chargers (-10) laying double-digits at home against the Cardinals with select online sportsbooks still offering LAC -10.5.

- Week 1 underdogs of 6.5 points or more are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1%) since 2013. Teams that declined by 5 or more wins the previous season (KC, DET, WSH, MIN, AZ) are 26-13 ATS (66.7%) in the qualifying rebound spot Week 1. 

- Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 SU/ATS in Week 1's as an NFL head coach after the Chargers (+3) beat the Chiefs in last season 37-21. The Chargers are the only double-digit favorite in Week 1 this season. 

- The Patriots and Chiefs have lost the last two Super Bowls in one-sided games (14+ points). In the Wild Card era (since 1990), there has been 13 teams lose by 14+ points in the Super Bowl the year prior. Those Super Bowl losers (not yet including Patriots) went 4-8 SU and 2-10 ATS in Week 1 of the next season. That includes eight consecutive losses ATS in Week 1, with the last team to cover being the 1997 Patriots beating the Chargers at home. The Patriots are a +3.5 point underdog at Seattle to kickoff Week 1 this season on Wed., Sept. 9. 

- Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 17-4 ATS within their first 3 games of the season since 2019, best of any team in the NFL. That includes 9-0 ATS at home in Lambeau Field. The Packers first home game this season is Week 3 on Thursday, Sept. 24 vs. the Falcons. 

More updates, stats and ATS data as we research and chip-in more information you can bet on.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. That includes a 7-year run at OSGA picking 57% ATS winners on only NFL underdogs. FairwayJay is also on the scene and in Las Vegas covering major sports plus industry conferences and events as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.

is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.