Betting Preview for the Final Four

I previewed the NCAA Tournament Final Four at Off Shore Gaming Association after the Elite Eight games were completed and noted the opening odds and market movement from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks. Now I chip-in matchup analysis, stats and added coverage to consider for more betting options in the Final Four games between Illinois-Connecticut and Arizona-Michigan on Saturday, April 4 from Indianapolis. 

No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 3 Illinois (-2) | Total: 139.5 | 6:09 p.m. | TBS
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan (-1.5) | Total: 157.5 | 9:30 p.m. | TBS 

There are many ways to bet the NCAA Tourmament beyond the spread, total and moneyline. Halftime betting, prop bets including player props will be popular with live betting generating a greater percentage of the sportsbooks handle with more watch and wager action in the Final Four. I'll update any additional props offerings and thoughts ahead of Saturday's game. 

Currently, I have an Opinion on Connecticut and Lean on Arizona. after going 3-0 on Sweet Sixteen picks/opinions.

Final Four betting tips

Michigan (35-3) and Arizona (36-2) stats leaders show Wolverines senior Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg averaging 25 points and 8.3 rebounds over Michigan's last 3 games - more than 10 ppg more than his season average. Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Aday Mara (7 foot 3) led the league in blocked shots and is averaging 2.75 blocks per game and 13.5 ppg in the NCAAT. Michigan is averaging 95 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, 7 ppg more than their season average which is top 5 in the country after scoring 72, 68 and 71 points in three Big Ten Tournament games. All four NCAA Tournament wins have been by at least 13 points with three by 20+ points including a route over Tennessee in the Elite Eight. Guards Nimari Burnett (40%), Elliot Cadeau (41%) and Roddy Gayle (58%) are all hitting high percentages of their 3 point shots with Michigan hitting 40% from the arc as a team since March 1. The Wolverines are No. 1 in the country adjusted defensive efficiency, No. 3 in 2-point percentage defense and top 20 in 3-point defense.

The Wildcats are No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and join Michigan as top defensive teams all season and top 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency. All four of their NCAA Touranament wins by 12+ points including 79-64 over Purdue in the Elite Eight with the Boilermakers having beaten Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. Big 12 Player of the Year, senior guard Jaden Bradley is a solid shooter (45%), but freshman shooting guard Braden Burries (57.8%) has been better in the NCAAT including from the arc (68%) after hitting 50% FG this season. Arizona combines strength inside to join Michigan as a top 3 defense in 2-point shots with 7-foot 2 Lithuanian center Motiejus Krivas joining those two on first team Big 12 and pulling down 38 rebounds in four NCAAT games. The Wildcats strength and depth along the frontline is impressive with Tobe Awaka leading the Wildcats in rebounding (9.6) this season, freshman Koa Peat (17.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg) joining Burries as the Wildcats top scorer in the NCAAT, and Ivan Kharchenkov (14 ppg, 6.5 rpg) also a 54% FG shooter with Peat in the tournament.  

Bet on the Final Four at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

I had Illinois (28-8) joining Michigan, Arizona and Duke in two of my three Final Four brackets. But still think this line vs. UCONN (33-5) should be pick 'em, thus an opinion on the Huskies. Connecticut's adjusted defensive rating is now top 10 after rallying from a 15 point halftime deficit and holding Duke to 72 points (28 in 2H) on 44% FG and 22% from 3-point line in a miraculous come-from-behind last-second Elite Eight win. That defensive strength and efficiency matters more in a slower possession-by-possession game with the ability to contest more shots, limit second-chance opportunities and minimize fouls as the Huskies did in beating top-rebounding Big Ten bully Michigan State in the Sweet Sixteen after jumping out to a huge lead. Connecticut held Michigan State to 40% FG and 25% from 3's (4/16), and led the Big East this season in FG% offense, assists, rebounding margin and scoring margin. Three Huskies upperclassman were first team All-Big East players, forward Alex Karaban, center Tarris Reed, Jr. guard Silas DeMary, Jr. Senior Alex Karaban is already a 2-time national champion with the Huskies (2023, 2024), and the all-time winningest player in program history, and he made the recognition and selfless pass to freshman Braylon Mullins, who had the memorable March Madness moment, hitting a 35-foot game-winning 3-pointer to beat Duke in the final second.

I like Illinois and their shooting strength, and the Fighting Illini thrives when it can generate rhythm offensively. Coach Brad Underwood's first Final Four trip in more than 30 years coaching college basketball is with an Illinois team that ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They had to battle Houston's stronger defense in winning a Sweet Sixteen game despite shooting 43% FG (39% from arc). The Illini have taken more than 1,100 three-point shots this season through the NCAA Tournament (34.8%), nearly 200 more than both Michigan and Connecticut, and about 500 more than Arizona. Freshman of the Year and All-Big Ten first team Keaton Wagler leads a strong 2-point shooting team with fellow freshman David Mirkovic, who leads the Illini with 15 ppg and 11 rpg in the NCAA Tournament joining the size and athleticism of Andrej Stojakovic (15 ppg, 59% FG), son of an all-time great NBA shooter Peja Stojakovic. But Illinois has scored below their season average (83.8 ppg) in three straight NCAAT games scoring 76, 65 and 71 points and was just 3/17 from long range against Iowa in their Elite Eight win after also trailing at halftime. After losing four Big Ten games in overtime since early Feb., the Illini also lost at home to Michigan 84-70 with another sub-par shooting game against a top-tier defense in all facets, and Illinois also ranks among the very worst in the country in steals and turnovers on defense.

Final Four Player props and Championship Matchups

Top online sportsbook BetOnline also has additional Final Four props along with exact national championship game matchup odds. 

- Illinois vs Michigan (+220)
- Illinois vs Arizona (+250)
- Connecticut vs Michigan (+275)
- Connecticut vs Arizona (+325)

Highest scoring player in Final Four

+350: Wagler (ILL)
+400: Lendeborg (MICH)
+500: Reed (UCONN)
+600: Burries (AZ)
+650: Peat (AZ)
+750: Johnson (MICH)
+1200: Bradley (AZ)
+1200: Karaban (UCONN)
+1200: Stojakovic (ILL)
+1400: Cadeau (MICH)
+1600: Mara (MICH)
+1600: Mirkovic (ILL)
+1600: Mullins (UCONN)

A buzzer beater in the Final Four (Yes, +2500)

Check back for more stats, odds, updates and information you can bet on. 

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player. He's been covering major sports from a betting perspective for more than two decades from Las Vegas. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.