A Monday Night Football Week 9 clash between conference leaders as the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (6-1) tackle the NFC North-leading Minnesota Vikings (6-1) indoors in Minneapolis. I provide initial Monday Night Football preview at OSGA with information you can bet on.
The Bills have dropped as a favorite from -3.5 to -3 (-120) with a game total of 44 points at top online sportsbook BetOnline. I initially picked and bet the Vikings (+3.5) ahead of the line move, and would continue with the purple people leaders at +3 as backup QB Carson Wentz takes over from 1-and-done Vikings QB Kyler Murray.
Check out our NFL Week 9 report which included the Vikings +3.5 as an Opinion ahead of the line move. NFL spread picks are 10-3 ATS this season, but opinions fell to 13-13 ATS with a losing Sunday. Totals won this week and are now 23-14.
NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football #BUFvsMIN. Bills -3 (-120) or -3.5, total 44. Top Bills offense vs top Vikings defense. More advance stats @SharpFBAnalysis plus MNF preview, picks, props & information you can bet on @OffShoreGaming https://t.co/ZN7xIxQX2P
— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) November 9, 2026
Bills-Vikings Stats and Matchups
Along with the advanced stats above from Sharp Football, the Vikings defense has the edge and better stats in 3-of-4 key defensive categories over the Bills. We track weekly defensive stats of total yards, yards per play, yards per rush and points allowed. Those defensive matchup numbers led us to a 1-0 result on our Week 5 picks on the Steelers.
From Week 8 forward last season, teams with a 3 or 4 stats edge in a matchup hit 64% ATS on nearly 100 plays. The Vikings defense ranks No. 1 so far this season in scoring (13.3), and No. 2 in total yards (271) and yards per play (4.7). Minnesota has allowed just 14.7 ppg against three NFC North division teams with stronger offenses (Bears bad weather), and overall the Vikings defense has a -0.17 EPA per play and 37.2% success rate allowed. The Bills allow 352 ypg at 5.4 yppl, which is league-average. The Bills run defense is actually a little better, but neither team is top 10. The most points the Vikings defense has allowed this season is 22, and the least points the Bills have scored in a game is 24.
Of course the Bills league-best offense (393 ypg, 6.3 yppl) with top QB Josh Allen gives them edges with a No. 3 success rate and No. 2 in EPA per play. But monitor the status of Pro Bowl franchise left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs), as he's questionable and will play through some pain if he starts. The Vikings offense ranks No. 30 in success rate, and is nearly as bad as their defense is elite. But a change at QB to Carson Wentz has already been positive for WR Justin Jefferson when Wentz plays this season and he now has over 100 NFL starts. The Vikings offense can perform better against a Bills defense that is No. 23 in EPA per play and No. #26 in success rate allowed. It's a fascinating matchup of Allen and the Bills offense against the Vikings top defense and pressure packages.
The Bills hold a +0.9 net yards per play edge over the Vikings, but Minnesota's stronger and top of the league special teams factor in along with the Vikings No. 2 NFL +7 turnover margin (Bills -2).
Player Props
In the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Rams in Los Angeles, we cashed in an easy player prop winner at OSGA on QB Matthew Stafford. Now it's Josh Allen's turn to shine again under the Monday Night lights, as he's been passed by Bengals QB Joe Burrow in the MVP odds.
I'll post a player prop mid-day on Monday with additional information you can bet on.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. That includes a 7-year run at OSGA picking 57% ATS winners on only NFL underdogs. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.
Please login or sign-up to add your comment.
Comments (0): Subscribe by Email
There are no comments yet.
<< prev - comments page 1 of 1 - next >>