NFL Week 14 Prop Picks and Predictions

Pro football continues on the first Sunday of December, and 2025 NFL Week 14 features some key games impacting teams pushing towards the playoffs and division titles. Three games are first-place division showdowns. That Steelers (6-6) and Ravens (6-6) rivalry in Baltimore for the AFC North lead, along with the Bears (9-3) and Packers (8-3-1) battle at Lambeau Field in the late Sunday afternoon window with the winner on top in the NFC North. Overnight rain in Jacksonville will carry over to Sunday and a downpour as the Colts (8-4) and Jaguars (8-4) play for first place in the AFC South. 

Pro football kicked off Thursday night with a NFL Week 14 totals tip winner on the Cowboys-Lions projected shootout that delivered with Detroit's 44-30 win. The hazards of betting showed up again not only with the Cowboys 3 turnovers (Lions zero), but the terrible officiating that continues this season with another blown call against the Cowboys as they were about to cut the Lions lead to 37-34 before settling for a field goal. That impacted spread, moneyline and live/in-game betting, along with the Cowboys chances of winning. The defending NFC North champion Lions (8-5) are in the division and playoff chase while the Cowboys (6-6-1) chances took a big hit (9%) after winning their two previous games over the Eagles and Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day football. 

NFL Week 14 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- Dallas at Detroit (-3), 54 - Thursday, Lions win 44-30
- Washington (-2) at Minnesota, 42.5
- Miami (-2.5) at New York Jets, 41.5
- Tennessee at Cleveland (-4), 34
- Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-5.5 / 6), 42.5
- Seattle (-7) at Atlanta, 44.5
- Indianapolis (-1.5) at Jacksonville, 46.5  
- New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-9), 41.5
- Cincinnati at Buffalo (-5.5 / 6), 53
- Denver (-7.5) at Las Vegas, 40.5
- Chicago at Green Bay (-6.5), 44.5
- Los Angeles Rams (-9) at Arizona, 47.5
- Houston at Kansas City (-3.5), 41.5 - SNF
- Philadelphia (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, 40.5 - MNF

The Commanders-Vikings line has flipped again with QB Jayden Daniels to return from injury and play with the total also up from 42.5 to 44. Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy will also start after clearing concussion protocol. Colts star CB Sauce Garnder (calf) is out in the Colts-Jaguars AFC South first place showdown. Monday Night Football features Eagles-Chargers and LA quarterback Justin Herbert will play despite just having surgery to repair his left hand. He'll be operating out of the shotgun all game, and the game total has dipped to 40.5.

Injuries, Weather And Wind

Check out more Week 14 injury reports, and monitor the NFL weather. Cleveland has freezing temperatures near 20 degrees and a 30% chance of snow with 10 mph winds and slightly stronger gusts. Potential rain at other cities and most likely in Tampa and Jacksonville also with 10-15 mph winds. 

Fairways Forecast and NFL picks are 5-0 the past three weeks after the Dallas Cowboys (+3') outright 'Dog win on Thanksgiving Day followed by two more Week 13 outright 'Dog winners on the Texans (+4) and Panthers (+10). Picks and opinions are 7-2 overall the past three weeks heading into NFL Week 14 on Sunday. That followed a 3-0 result on both Week 12 game totals and teasers. Player props are 17-11 since Week 3 after a pair of turkey day turnovers with the game script changed as the Ravens fell behind and had 5 turnovers.

NFL Week 14 Picks

- Picks: Bills, Ravens, Saints 
- Opinions: Vikings 

3-team parlay: Ravens, Bills, Saints
2-team 'Dog parlay: Vikings, Saints

My two biggest rushing yards edge and discrepancies this week go to the Bills and Ravens, and we'll play them at TD (6 points) or less on the spread. After all, teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game this season are covering the spread at nearly 70 ATS this season (down historically) on sample size of > 130 games. If they run the ball at least 30 times in a game, those teams cover at nearly 80% ATS. The outright winner of a game lined 6-points or less covers 90% ATS. 

NFL Player Props

Our worst week of player props drops the record to 17-12 since Week 3 and 17-14 overall this season. 

Chiefs WR Rasheed Rice - Over 6.5 receptions 

Opinions 

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. - Under 4 receptions 

Check back by Sunday for any additional player props and analysis.

Not official player prop yet, but Bengals RB Chase Brown (over 14.5) could have a longer rush with favorable zone run matchup against Bills. Still evaluating more rush state. Brown had an 18-yard rush last week at Baltimore against the Ravens and 15 carries for 72 yards. The Bills bludgeoned the Steelers with 249 yards rushing last week, and still have an edge against the Bengals. But Buffalo's defense does rank No. 25 in rush success rate allowed (42%), but it jumps to more than 50% against inside zone, and they've been missing some key interior defenders. The Bengals have the second-highest inside zone run rate in the league.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore 

See more game analysis of the Steelers-Ravens showdown in my NFL Week 14 tips, totals, teasers and trends update. Surprising stat: both teams have allowed more points than they have scored this season. Last 10 meetings in series have gone 1-9 over/under.  

Chicago at Green Bay

Is this the week the Bears good fortune ends (league best +17 turnover margin), along with their 5-game winning streak ends? No other team has a TO margin better than +9 (Texans, Bucs, Rams) while the Vikings (4-8) are a league-worst -15 turnover differential and in last place in the NFC North after making the playoffs last season. The Packers counter with a 3-game winning streak having last beaten the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, 31-24. Extra rest and prep for the Packers, who hold a big statistical edge with a +1.4 Net Yards Per Play differential (all on the defensive side of the ball). The 7 points per game defensive advantage adds to the 3.9 to 5.2 defensive YPPL edge, along with a +74 Net Defensive yards per game. Despite just a slight positive points for to points allowed of 313-307 this season, the Bears continue to improve and impress more on offense averaging 195 rushing yards per game over their 5-game winning streak. The Bears are averaging 0.10 EPA/play (7th) since the bye week and are 2nd in EPA per designed rush, but I expect Chicago’s ground game to be limited by a Packers defense allowing just -0.12 EPA/rush (6th). I added the Packers to my Week 15 teasers bets while watching and live wagering with interest. 

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 

Considered the Colts, but QB Daniel Jones' fractured fibula has limited his mobility, and Indy is without it's two top defenders in DT DeForest Buckner and CB Sauce Gardner. The Jaguars are missing edge rusher Travon Walker and LT Walker Little. What gives in a game with NFL weather showing heavy rain projected during the contest?

New Orleans at Tampa Bay 

Big ugly 'Dog call on the Saints (2-10) against the Buccaneers (7-5), who are clinging to the NFC South lead despite scoring 22 points less (279) than they have allowed (301). The Bucs have also been out-gained in each of their last nine games. Tampa has four division games remaining, and this one will be far tougher than the line suggests while being played in the rain (80%), according to NFL weather. The Saints and their defense are playing far better ball having allowing just 258 yards per game over there last three games, and just 212 yards (88 rush, 124 pass) to the Bucs in their Week 8 loss to Tampa 23-3.  

Surprisingly to some we supported bumbling QB Young and the Panthers as big home 'Dog last week against Stafford and the rumbling Rams. The Panthers (+10) won outright. Considered the Cardinals as big home 'Dog this week, but since added 'under' the game total to our tips and totals with matchups and injuries reviewed. The Rams stronger defense should limit Arizona's offense and QB Jacoby Brissett without WR Harrison. Instead we go marching in with big 'Dog Saints and rookie QB Tyler Shough, who has improved with 282, 234 and 249 passing yards and 69% completions his last three games since coming in relief against the Bucs in Week 8. These NFL underdog picks went 11-1 ATS with 9 outright winners in December 2023 when Fairway's Forecast produced 57% ATS winners posting at OSGA from 2017-2023. Then last year in 2024, NFL favorites had a historic season, and were covering spreads at a record rate from Week 11 forward.  

Check back for any additions as we chip-in more NFL picks, props and parlays with information you can bet on.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.