College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview - Big Ten Conference  

The countdown to the NCAA Tournament is less than 10 days away, and Selection Sunday is March 15. In the Big Ten Conference, Michigan is the top team and will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of their Big Ten tournament result. A total of nine teams from the Big Ten are projected into the NCAA Tournament bracket by Joe Lunardi at ESPN. I chip in a Big Ten Tournament betting guide with odds, stats, select picks and information you can bet on at Off Shore Gaming Association. 

The Big 12, Big East and ACC tournaments will be most watched and wagered events at the top online sportsbooks, along with the Big Ten and SEC, which are expected to send 20 teams to the NCAA Tournament from those two conferences alone.  I also attended and reported on the West Coast Conference Tournament, and enjoyed two underdog winners in the conference semifinals with Santa Clara playing Gonzaga in the championship game March 10. Both those teams will be in the NCAA Tournament along with St. Mary's. 

The Betting Scene

Check out the Betting Scene and more college basketball March Madness contests and offers from the top online sportsbooks. Following the men's college basketball conference tournaments, the media coverage really ramps up for the madness of the NCAA Tournament. March Madness is one of the most exciting times in American Sports, and the betting interest in March Madness reaches it's peak with billions of dollars wagered worldwide at online sportsbooks. But the college basketball conference tournaments offer even more, and often better betting opportunities as a majority of teams, especially in the smaller conferences, play for a chance to realize their dream of playing in the NCAA Tournament. 

Which Big Ten teams project as national champion contenders? This season's three elite teams will be NCAA Tournament top seeds with Duke (29-2), Michigan (29-2) and Arizona (29-2) winning the regular season titles in the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. Duke also beat Michigan on Feb. 21. Connecticut (27-4) lost their final regular season game to come up a game short of winning the Big East, and will fall to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. SEC champion and defending national champion Florida (25-6) is now projected as the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

All four of the projected No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament are also top defensive teams. They also fit a proven stat profile of a national champion. Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida all rank top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings by KenPom. All four teams are currently top 10 in both those categories. Houston from the Big 12 is the only other team currently in the top 20 in both categories. Why is that notable? Because 22 of the last 23 national champions have finished in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Those stats rankings will adjust through each game of the conference tournaments. 

Illinois (1 off/26 def), Michigan State (27/9), Purdue (2/39), Nebraska (54/5), Wisconsin (16/55), UCLA (28/20), Iowa (24/31) and Ohio State (18/52) all have solid efficiency ratings by KenPom. 

Big Ten Conference

Odds to win the Big Ten Tournament from BetOnline and leading reduced juice sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. 

Listed in the table is each teams overall and conference records in conference tournament seed order, and offensive and defensive efficiency (OE, DE) ratings from KenPom. Also, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is a key advanced metric that measures a team's or player's efficiency, calculated as the difference between their Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). It shows how much better or worse a team performs compared to opponents. 

Some of the stats reference will be on winning teams, as those will be teams to follow in the NCAA Tournament and select other postseason tournaments including the National Invitational Tournament (NIT). 

Big Ten Stats, Trends and Notes 

Top seed Michigan enters the Big Ten Tournament on a 15-game winning streak in conference play. Michigan lost to Duke on Feb. 21 when the Wolverines were ranked No. 1 in the country and Duke No. 3. No other team has more than 3-straight conference wins entering the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan is also the defending Big Ten Conference Tournament champs having won it last year in head coach Dusty May's first year in Ann Arbor. 

Wisconsin ranks top-5 in the nation in 3-point rate (53%) since mid-January and hitting 38.8% from deep the past two months. Illinois enters the conferenc tournament No. 1 in the country in KenPom's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating, and has a 51% 3-point rate this season, and they take care of the basketball with a top-10 turnover rate (13.4%). 

Notable players to watch include Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg. The senior transfer forward averaged 14.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He's joined on the Big Ten first team with junior forward Pryce Sandfort of Nebraska (17.9 ppg, 4.9), and guards Keaton Wagler of Illinois (17.9 ppg, 4.3 apr, 4.9 rpg), Jeremy Fears, Jr. of Michigan State (15.5 ppg, 9.1 apg) and Braden Smith of Purdue (14.9 ppg, 8.7 apg). Not a single leading scorer in the top 10 made the All-Big Ten first team. 

In conference games only this season, here are the stats leaders: 

- Scoring offense: Michigan (85.9 ppg), Wisconsin (82.1), Illinois (81.7), Purdue (79.8), Ohio State (77.9), Michigan State (78.9). 
- FG% offense: Michigan (50.9%), Purdue (49.2), Ohio State (49.1), Indiana (47.6), Michigan State (47.4), Washington (46.7), Nebraska (46.4), UCLA (46.2).
- 3-point offense: Purdue (37.7%), UCLA (37.7), Michigan (37.5), Ohio State (37.3), Wisconsin (37.2), Nebraska (36.7).   
- Scoring defense: Nebraska (66.2), Michigan State (68.4), Iowa (69.8), Illinois (70.8), Michigan (70.9), Minnesota (71.4).  
- FG% defense: Michigan (40.4%), Michigan State (41.4), Illinois (42.3), Nebraska (42.3) and UCLA (44.0).
- 3-point defense: Arizona (29.9%), Texas Tech (30.6), Iowa State (32.8), Cincinnati (33.1), Houston (33.3), Kansas (33.5). 
- Rebounding margin: Michigan State (+10.8), Illinois (+8.6), Michigan (+7.8), Purdue (+5.1).

Michigan (+15.5) and Illinois (+10.8) led the Big Ten in scoring margin per game in conference play with Nebraska (+8.9), Michigan State (+8.5) and Purdue (+7.1) next. Michigan (+5.7) led the league in blocked shots followed by USC (+4.8) and Illinois (+3.7). Wisconsin (80.3%), Illinois (80.0) and Michigan State (79.6) are the best free throw shooting teams. Purdue (19.0), Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State and Minnesota (16.4) topped the Big Ten in assists per game with Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State and USC averaing 6 to 7.5 steals per game. Wisconsin, Illinois and Nebraska made the most 3-pointers averaging 11-12 per game. 

Big Ten Tournament ATS Trends

- A bye has not been beneficial for Big Ten teams. The Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) notes that teams are 25-14 SU but 13-28-2 ATS versus teams that already played since 2018. 
- The Big Ten tournament semifinals are 12-4 Over the total since 2017, including 8 straight over entering this year's tourney. 
- Big Ten tourney conference title game favorites are currently on a 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS skid.

Big Ten Tournament Schedule 

Tues., March 10 

Game 1: No. 16 Oregon (-4) vs. No. 17 Maryland 
Game 2: No. 15 Northwestern (-5) vs. No. 18 Penn State 

Wed., March 11

Game 3: No. 9 Iowa (-12.5) vs. No.17 Maryland
Game 4: No. 12 Washington (-4.5) vs. No. 13 USC
Game 5: No. 10 Indiana (-6) vs. No. 15 Northwestern
Game 6: No. 11 Minnesota (-5.5) vs. No. 14 Rutgers 

Thurs., March 12 

Game 7: No. 8 Ohio State vs. Game 3 winner
Game 8: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. Game 4 winner
Game 9: No. 7 Purdue vs. Game 5 winner
Game 10: No. 6 UCLA vs. Game 6 winner 

Fri., March 13 - Quarterfinals

Game 11: No. 1 Michigan vs. Game 7 winner
Game 12: No. 4 Illinois vs. Game 8 winner
Game 13: No. 2 Nebraska vs. Game 9 winner
Game 14: No. 3 Michigan State vs. Game 10 winner 

Sat., March 14 - Semifinals

Game 15: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner
Game 16: Game 13 vs. Game 14 winner 

Sun., March 15 - Championship, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Game 17: Game 15 winner vs. Game 16 winner

Check back daily for college basketball and conference tournament updates including matchups, odds, stats and select picks with information you can bet on. 

FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player. He's been covering major sports from a betting perspective for more than two decades from Las Vegas. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.