NFL Wild Card Playoff Predictions and Stats

The NFL 2025 regular season concluded last weekend with a thrilling 4th quarter finish between the Ravens and Steelers with Pittsburgh winning 26-24 on a Ravens missed 44-yard field goal as time expired. That sent Pittsburgh to the playoffs and the preseason AFC favorite Ravens out of the playoffs along with firing head coach John Harbaugh after an 18-year run in Baltimore. Now the Wild Card weekend kicks off with the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at the Carolina Panthers (8-9) on Sat., Jan. 10 followed by the NFC North division duel Saturday night featuring Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6). Sunday's action includes a trio of games with the Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) followed by the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) and Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3). The Monday Night Football feature is the Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7). 

Recall last season the Rams won on opening Wild Card weekend over the Vikings after the game was moved from Los Angeles to Arizona due to wildfires. 

Ahead of the games and our picks, analysis and stats below, check out Pro Football Focus and their insight, stats and grades for the strength and weakness of every playoff team. 

Wild Card Weekend $/tix

Rams - Panthers
56% $ LAR -10.5
54% tix CAR

Packers - Bears
63% $ GB -1
63% tix CHI

Bills - Jags
54% $ & 62% tix JAX +1

49ers - Go Birds
56% $ PHI -4.5
58% tix SF

Chargers - Pats
60% $ LAC +3.5
57% tix NE

Texans - Steelers
59% $ PIT -3
63% tix HOU

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) January 6, 2026

Wild Card Round Matchups, Odds, Analysis 

Odds provided by BetOnline and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. 

Sat., Jan. 10 

- LA Rams (-10.5) at Carolina, game total 46.5
- Green Bay (-1.5) at Chicago, 45.5 

Sun., Jan. 11

- Buffalo (-1) at Jacksonville, 52.5
- San Francisco at Philadelphia (-4.5 or 5), 44.5
- LA Chargers at New England (-3.5), 46 

Mon, Jan. 12 

- Houston (-3) vs. Pittsburgh, 39.5 

A look at the NFL weather shows that rain is more likely (70%) in Charlotte for the Rams/Panthers with overcast skies, 15 mph winds gusting to > 25 mph. It's also overcast in Chicago with 33 degrees projected at kickoff and a chance of snow (40%) with 15-17 mph winds gusting to 30 mph. A slight chance of rain (9%) in Philadelphia with 45 degree temps, 10-12 mph winds gusting to 25 mph. Also a slight chance of rain (30%) in Foxboro for Chargers/Patriots with 37 degrees at kickoff with light winds and potential gusts up to 13 mph.   

Props

BetOnline has special promotional props including lowest temperature at kickoff of any wild card game. Over 32 degrees Fahrenheit (-110), under 32 degrees (-130). 

Betting on the highest scoring game of the wild card round?

+200: BUF/JAX
+400: LAR/CAR
+425: GB/CHI
+500: LAC/NE
+500: SF/PHI
+950: HOU/PIT

Teams Stats vs Playoff Teams

Courtesy of Playbook Sports, who also provides stats, ATS info and picks at Gamblers World. ITS = In the Stats vs playoff teams.

In all NFL playoff games from 2002-2024, the better seed team (lower seed) is 117-134-4 ATS. In the Wild Card round, the better seed is 49-50-3 ATS. Home 'Dogs in the NFL Playoffs are a very profitable play over a longterm 50 game sample at nearly 70% ATS. 

Check back this weekend ahead of the Sunday games for additional stats, ATS, game analysis, opinions and information you can bet on. 

Wild Card Picks 

LA Rams at Carolina - Lean: Over. This is the biggest road favorite in NFL playoff history. Would consider big home 'Dog (70% ATS, see above), but bumbling Bro QB Young vs. MVP Stafford, no thanks. Both teams allow 327 yards per game this season, but the Rams defense is still stronger and the Defensive Edge System (DES) allowing 5.2 yards per play, 4.3 yards per rush and 20.4 points per game. I won't lay the big road points, so total is the play. Panthers beat the Rams at home 31-28 in Week 13 at this price point, but CAR had a 3-0 turnover edge. The Rams and their No. 1 offense enter on a run of 19-7 SU, 20-6 ATS since the midway point of last season. The Panthers are 1-of-4 teams in this year's NFL Playoffs who had 5 or fewer wins last season, joining the Bears, Jaguars and Patriots with CAR, CHI and NE all going worst to first in their divisions. 

Green Bay at Chicago - Opinion: Bears. What a year for the Bears, worst to first in NFC North in head coach Ben Johnson's first year in Chicago. Can they win their first playoff game with the playoff debut of QB Caleb Williams after losing a pair of close contests to close the regular season? It will be quite the environment in Chicago with Packers QB Love returning from concussion since he left the Week 16 game in loss to the Bears. The Packers lost on the road in this round last year to the Super Bowl champion Eagles 22-10 and QB Love threw 3 interceptions. That was one week after losing to the Bears. Now Green Bay enters the playoffs off 4-straight losses including 22-16 in OT to the Bears, which cost the Packers the division title in a game they had a better than 90% chance of winning late. Green Bay had beaten Chicago 28-21 the first weekend of December before the losing streak. The Packers have covered just 3 of their last 15 games this season after starting 2-0 SU/ATS. But Green Bay qualifies under the DES system in 3 of 4 key categories. Since Week 8 in NFL action of this season, the DES has gone 65% ATS on more than 80 games for the DES teams as underdog to -6. But No. 7 seeds in the NFL Playoffs are just 1-10 SU since 2020 when the league expanded to 14 playoff teams. The Packers were that only winner as No. 7 over Dallas in the 2023-24 playoffs. 

Buffalo at Jacksonville - Pick: Jaguars and Over. Bills run defense worst of all playoff teams allowing 136 rushing ypg and 5.1 yards per rush. Last year's playoff winners dominated in the running game, and Buffalo must play better in that area in their first game in the Wild Card round since 2019 after winning 5-straight AFC East titles. Still, overall the Bills do have a top-10 offense and defense this season (yards), joining the Patriots and first round bye teams Seahawks and Broncos. The Jaguars rushed for 100 or more yards in 9 games this season, going 8-1 SU in those games, and the Bills allowed 160 rushing yards in 7 games. Ride the Jaguars and improved play of QB Trevor Lawrence with Jacksonville on a current 8-0 SU/ATS streak entering the playoffs, including 7-1 SU/ATS at home this season.  

San Francisco at Philadelphia - Philly played the toughest strength of schedule and running game favors the Eagles noting the Niners got run over at the point of attack in Week 18 by the Seahawks 180-42 rushing edge for Seattle. The Eagles defense was one of the best in the league the second half of the season, and rested starters in Week 18 while the 49ers played a grinder and lost to miss out on the NFC West title. Cross country travel against the defending champion Eagles, who hold the DES edge in 3 key categories with Philly also 19-6 ATS to -6 on this field in recent seasons. 

LA Chargers at New England - Pick: Chargers. Patriots played the easiest strength of schedule in the league after winning just 4 games last season. NFL playoff teams that won 4 or fewer games last season are just 6-10 SU and 3-13 ATS as favorites in their first postseason since 1996. Check back for more. 

Houston at Pittsburgh - Dominant No. 1 Texans defense preferred with a league-best 9 game winning streak entering playoffs. Will QB Stroud step up against an inferior Steelers team and defense with HC Tomling and the Steelers also just 3-10 in their last 13 playoff games? Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers veteran leadership not one to bet against, but Pittsburgh is overmatched and needs some turnovers and stronger special teams to snap the Texans win streak after Steelers emotional Week 18 win over Ravens to make the playoffs.  

Teasers: Jaguars and Chargers 

Last year our Wild Card picks and opinions went 1-2 ATS on sides and 2-0 on leans. In 2024 we went 3-3 ATS and 3-0 on leans. In 2023 our picks and opinions went 3-0. 

More information you can bet on ahead of Wild Card weekend. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.