The difference between being able to host a playoff game in pleasant conditions at Hard Rock Stadium and having to deal with something resembling the 1967 Ice Bowl in Green Bay was the fact that the Miami Dolphins could not beat the Buffalo Bills last weekend.

And as BetOnline customers may already know, that's the way it goes in the NFL.

Now, as the wild card round continues, the Dolphins have to go into Arrowhead Stadium on a field that, as Rodney Harrison of NBC (a former NFL player) has said, is the worst he's seen in 30 yards around the league.

The field is like an ice skating rink, and we don't think the conditions are going to get any better as we move farther into the evening. The temperature is expected to be around zero, with a wind chill factor somewhere around 30 below. You can see it only on Peacock (NBC's streaming service).

It's a good thing for the Dolphins that they have been able to make the ground game a bigger part of their overall situation. Raheem Mostert has averaged almost five yards a carry, and he has scored 18 rushing touchdowns. De'Von Achane has been a real rookie find out of Texas A&M, as he has chalked up almost EIGHT yards a pop. Mike McDaniel was known as a rushing "guru" when he was offensive coordinator for the Niners. He'll need to call on that Saturday night, because we're not so sure Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are going to be able to run free like they are used to.

Hill, who has 1799 receiving yards, is facing his former team, so this game means a lot to him. But he won't be able to cut as usual, and obviously the icy field mitigates any speed advanate he may have. The question is how the KC defenders might be affected by it.

In the AFC wild card betting odds on this 8 PM ET start, as they are posted at BetOnline, the Chiefs are laying points as the home team:

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
Miami Dolphins +4.5

Over 43.5 Points -105
Under 43.5 Points -115

The Miamii defense may be in difficult shape here. As it is, they gave up 473 yards to Buffalo in that one-off for the AFC East title. And there are absences. Jaelen Phillips, the University of Miami alum who was having a good year as a pass rusher, went down with an injury several weeks ago. Then Bradley Chubb was lost, which took out another dangerous pass rusher.

Also unavailable for this game are cornerback Xavien Howard, who made for a great combo with Jalen Ramsey, along with linebackers Andrew Van Ginklel and Jerome Baker.

This doesn't necessarily mean that Patrick Mahomes is going to be able to drive his Chiefs up and down the field. The weather conditions will get in the way of that, and Mahomes doesn't seem to have all the faith in the world in his wide receivers (they lead the league in drops). But it will help this very caoable Kansas City defense get that "one more stop" that pundits are always talking about.

Both Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa have tossed 14 interceptions, so they need to be careful with the ball. But generally Mahomes has been able to do his business, and lots of it (4183 yards) by throwing shorter passes (6.5 Intended Air Yards per attempt). Isaiah Pacheco can provide enough ground attack (935 yards, 4.6 ypc) and the interior of that KC offensive line is formidable, to say the least.

Kansas City's stop unit allowed only 29 touchdowns. Led by Chris Jones, the sack brigade (57 of them) should make Tua throw it quickly, which lessens the effect of the big play.

The Dolphins, obviously a warm-weather team, couldn't possibly adapt in enough time to deal with the kind of weather the Chiefs have been encountering all week. Andy Reid is great after a bye week, and many Chiefs starters got rested last week as KC played the Chargers.

With Miami having struggled against winning teams (1-5 record), this line, with these conditions, seems reasonable to us. We're with the home team.

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