BCS Championship Betting -- Mac Jones and The Total Picture For 'Bama-OSU

  • In Charles Jay
  • Mon, Jan 11th, 2021 4:29:36 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Mac Jones has had an historically "monster" season. What kind of numbers can he and his Alabama Crimson Tide teammates roll up against the Ohio State Buckeyes?

A look at props for the National Championship game

At BetOnline you're going to have a ton of props to wager on for Monday night's BCS Championship Game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. We are going to take a look at a couple of those props, not to mention the total on the game.

Here's what the latest numbers look like:

National Championship Prop betting picksBCS Championship - College Football
Monday - 8 PM ET - Miami Gardens, FL

Alabama Crimson Tide -9 (-109)
Ohio State Buckeyes   +9 (-111)

Over 74 points -113
Under 74 points -107

You get the impression that Alabama sort of coasted in its game against Notre Dame. Interestingly enough, they ran only 54 plays, while the Irish had 80. That didn't happen in too many games. It was not insignificant, however, that they averaged 8.1 yards per play, compared to just 4.7 for Brian Kelly's team.

The 31-17 final wen under the total, but that is not the kind of game that has been associated with the Tide. Most of the time, they seem to be like a fighter who is willing to take a few punches in order to land the knockout blow. A great example was the game they played against Ole Miss, where Nick Saban met up with his former offensive coordinator, Lane Kiffin.

The Rebels, who had about a 49% run rate this season, amassed 647 yards - 379 through the air and 268 on the ground. Alabama, however, ran up 723 yards of total offense in the 63-48 win.

Ohio State has run the ball 60% of the time. And you look at what's happened in the last two games with Trey Sermon, the transfer from Oklahoma who rambled for 331 yards against Northwestern and then 193 against Clemson. From this you might think they have really tweaked this offense to accommodate Sermon, who had not really got things going in a big way until those two games. But the fact is, the Buckeyes have actually run the ball about the same in the last three games.

BetOnline customers should be wondering if that is a good thing or a bad thing for the Buckeyes, since Alabama has been burned a bit here and there. They've given up a healthy 243 passing yards per game, which places them 81st in the national ratings. We make allowances, of course, for the fact that almost all the time, the opponent is far behind, so maybe the 6.7 yards per attempt may be a more realistic barometer. And you have to remember that they have a cornerback who is being hailed as the best in the college game (Patrick Surtain Jr.).

Ohio State is the team that appears to be more permeable in the secondary. Opponents have competed a robust 63.7% of their passes, and as we look at the latest statistics, only eight of the 127 teams that played Division I football allowed more yardage per game through the air than they did.

And whereas their Sack Percentage of 12.08% was the highest in the nation last season, they have seen that almost cut in half this year, after the lost of notable personnel including Chase Young (and now they have dropped to 64th in that category).

So let's make the assumption that the Buckeyes are going to have a very difficult time putting pressure on Mac Jones, who was only sacked 4.3% of the time.

Allowing Jones to operate freely helps to unleash a passing game the analytics people at Pro Football Focus call "perhaps the best attack college football has ever seen."

It's kind of a scary statement, considering that we saw Joe Burrow throw 60 TD passes last year.

PFF had given Burrow the highest grade it had ever given a quarterback. Well, Jones has actually realized an even higher rating. He is the best at throwing through "tight windows." He is the best at throwing long. He probably should have been the Heisman Trophy winner.

Instead, his top receiver Devonta Smith (103 catches, 1641 yards) is. He'll exploit the Ohio State secondary. And he may even be joined by the guy who had been the top receiver until he got injured, Jaylen Waddle averaged 22.3 yards per reception until going down with an ankle injury. He has been practicing and Saban calls him a "game-time decision."

Can you imagine that Smith and Waddle were the #3 and #4 options last season, behind Jerry Jeudy and Hanry Ruggs III? Incredible.

We like Alabama minus the points, yes, but we the game to go over the total of 74 as well. Specifically we also like the team total for Alabama to go over 42 (at -115), and also for Mac Jones to exceed 372.5 yards (-114).

And we're on top of this Odds Booster:
Alabama to Win & Over 75.5 Points +180

Wager on all those and a lot more at BetOnline, where they have a wide selection of prop bets for the national championship game ........ And with Odds Booster, you'll get "payouts on steroids" on pre-selected parlays..... You can open your account with any payment method imaginable, and that includes cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin!


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