Logic and reasoning vs. the sportsbook can lead straight to the money line
In the world of professional football, logic and reasoning suggest that the best team will indeed be the winning team at the end of a game. By all calculations, this is usually the case. However, logic and reasoning do not take into account the point spreads and betting lines posted at a Las Vegas or online sportsbook.
Think about how often you hear the following phrases: "They can't lose." "I love them." "This is a lock" of the day, week, month of year. But what about your response to these statements? Do you find yourself being hesitant, thinking "This is great and all, but I wish the line were a bit lower?"
To this we say: Wake up and stay clear-minded! When you're betting at a sportsbook, you're there to bet the game and cash out three hours later. Remember: there's a strong reason why a lock is a lock. When betting on the spread of a game, you take the points or lay them.
Money line betting
Many people who bet on a game are turned off by the money line. No one likes to wager more money to win less. A moneyline wager allows you to bet on which team will win regardless of the points spread. Oddsmakers set money lines based on each side’s chances of winning the game and are based on each team’s implied probability to win the game. The money line is correlated to the point spread in that a team that is favored will yield negative odds. For example a -3 point spread on the favorite will yield a money line wager at -135 (+/-).
Don’t be afraid to bet the money line.
Though they offer it, the sportsbooks prefer you do not make this kind of bet. The higher the point spread odds are for your chosen team to win, the higher the money line will be offered for that team. With the money line, your advantage is simple: the team only has to win. We have seen the Patriots in their heyday at – 600, – 740, even – 1000 or higher. The high rollers look at these bets as three hour investments, or we call them, money in the bank. Granted you have bet more and won less, but at the end of the game, you have won.
Does it really matter if you bet $400.00 to win $100.00? You earned 25%, on your three hour investment. A perfect example was Super Bowl LVI. The betting line was the LA Rams at - 4. They won by 3. If your wager on the Rams was based solely on the betting line, you lost. However, if you would have bet the money line, which was – 200 to win 100, you would have made 50% on your money.
See the difference?
Every week there are games where the best wager is the money line. Do as we said earlier: Stay focused and make the right decision on how to bet your team. You're not there to gamble.
You are there for one thing only - to win.
Howard Schwartz has been providing betting insights for over a decade on Facebook. Check out his social media group for more betting tips and Super Bowl wagering advice.