College basketball betting advice and picks for small conferences

In seasons past when I provided regular college basketball betting picks, I would provide Fairways Followers and basketball bettors insight on Last Home Game (LHG) situations to support when betting at the leading online sportsbooks. These situations often provided top payouts when wagering, as I would identify LHG situations and positive profiles that produce profit. 

Many of these Last Home Games bring a level of emotion and effort from both the players and fans. Seniors make their final appearance for the home faithful and some teams will be playing for conference titles and stronger post-season positioning. Other teams may be playing out the string, but understand there is emotion, scheduling and momentum/letdown situations that must be analyzed along with the betting line as you evaluate the stats and match-ups in your point spread prognosis.

In the final weeks of the regular season, including games on Sat., March 2 and Sunday March 3 between major conference opponents and Top 25 teams that produce big game betting action, you'll see some intense battles as teams push towards the finish of the regular season. Even for teams out of the conference race or NCAA Tournament discussion, there is always a game or two that brings out the very best in a team. It could be a rivalry or revenge contest, Last Home Games or an opportunity to still get to .500 or better and obtain a NIT or other post season tournament invitation. 

Many of these closing contests and Last Home Games go beyond the stats and tighter or inflated betting lines. Teams that you may think have ‘tossed the towel’ may pull off a surprise, while others are surging with stronger chemistry, cohesion and coaching to guide them to more wins. As you navigate the final weeks and conference tournaments over the next two weeks ahead of March Madness and the NCAA Tournament, there is still plenty of opportunity to cash in, and profit from my/the experience. 

This weekend provides Last Home Games for the smaller conferences and teams, and next week it will be LHG for more major conference teams and those conferences receiving multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament. 

Last Home Games And Betting Situations

So here are some Last Home Game situations to assist you while saving you the time, energy and effort, and utilizing my decades of experience and ability to analyze stats, isolate stronger situations and higher level handicapping for success. 

Play on any team that is .500 or better in their Last Home Game (LHG) that fit these parameters. The more situations (1-6) that meet the parameters and scenario's, the stronger percentage play. 

1. Home team is an underdog or up to a -2 point favorite
2. Home team is playing with same season revenge (lost to opponent)
3. Home team has won at least 75% of their games on home court
4. Home team is 8 games or better above .500 this season
5. Home team is off consecutive losses
6. Away team (opponent) is coming off a win last game

One other situational profile I’ll provide to you is to watch for winning teams playing off back-to-back losses. If they are playing at home against an opponent with same season revenge, you have a solid situation to support the home team with plenty of focus, motivation, energy and effort expected. A high-percentage positive point spread late-season situation, and if it’s a Last Home Game, even better to make a Birdie on the basketball court and hardwood. (See UNC Wilmington below!)

March 2nd and 3rd Last Home Game Teams That Fit Profiles

All times Eastern, and betting lines on favorites. Conference noted and situational profiles that fit home team in parentheses (more is better)

- 2 pm: Summit - South Dakota State (-2.5) at North Dakota State (1,6)
- 2 pm: Northeast - Merrimack (-3.5) at Sacred Heart (1,2,6) - SH won
- 2 pm: Coastal (CAA) - Hofstra at Charleston (-5.5) - (3,4,6)
- 2 pm: Coastal (CAA) - Towson at UNC Wilmington (-3.5) - (2,3,4,5,6) - UNCW won 
- 2 pm: Big South - Gardner-Webb at Winthrop (-4.5) - (2,6)
- 2:30 pm: Big East - Marquette at Creighton (-4.5) - (2,3,4,6)
- 4 pm: Pac 12 - USC at Washington (-4.5) - (None)
- 4 pm: WAC - Texas-Arlington at Utah Valley (-2) - (1,2,6)
- 4 pm: Southern - UNC Greensboro (-1.5) at East Tennessee State (1,2,6)
- 4 pm: AAC - South Florida (USF) at Charlotte (-3.5) - (2,3,4,5,6) - USF 13 straight wins
- 4 pm: Coastal (CAA) - Delaware at Stony Brook (-1.5) - (1,2,3,6) 
- 5 pm: Big Sky - Montana State at Eastern Washington (-11.5) - (2,3,4,6)
- 6 pm: ACC - Pitt (-1.5) at Boston College (1,5)
- 6 pm: Horizon - Green Bay at UW Milwaukee (-5.5) - (2,6)
- 8 pm: Big West - UC San Diego (-4.5) at Cal-Northridge (1,2)  
- 8 pm: Summit - Denver at St. Thomas (-8.5) - (2,3)

The Sacred Heart Pioneers (15-15) lost to league-leader Merrimack 82-58 as a 5-point underdog on Jan. 6. The Merrimack Warriors have won 10-straight games starting on Jan. 21. Who the fk is going to want to bet on Sacred Heart (or this game!)? Did you know that in Northeast conference games, Sacred Heart leads the league in scoring at 75.6 points per game (5+ PPG more than Merrimack? I didn't think so. Merrimack does have the NE conference No. 1 scoring defense (60.7) and No. 1 FG% defense (40.0), including stifling 28.4% from 3-point line. But Sacred Heart shoots a league-high 47.2% from the floor and league-best 39.0% from the 3-point arc. What gives? While I prefer defense, note too that Merrimack is dead last in the league in rebounding margin (-5.5), and Sacred Heart is No. 1 in blocked shots (5.0), No. 2 in Assist/Turnover ratio (Merrimack No. 6). Sacred Heart is still 11-4 at home and won't get much betting support - although this game won't get much action. Pointing out how we evaluate the situations and incorporate some stats. 

The UNC Wilmington Seahawks (20-9) fit 5-of-6 parameters noted above, and also play with motivational redemption off back-to-back losses. The Towson Tigers (18-12) are tied with UNCW at 11-6 in Coastal Conference play, cut UNCW is No. 2 in league scoring at 76.5 PPG (8 PPG more than Towson). Sure the Tigers are allowing a league-low 62.6 PPG but No. 4 in FG% defense. Wilmington still has a better scoring margin at +6.6 per game and the Seahawks shoot the ball better (45.6) from the field than Towson (42.6%). Neither team shoots or defends the 3-point line too well, but if this game is mildly close, then note that UNCW leads the league in free throw shooting (78.0%) and Towson is dead last (67.3%). Towson does have a rebounding advantage, but UNCW has a league-best turnover margin (+2.53) while Towson is negative, and the Seahawks are No. 2 in Assist/TO ratio while Towson is No. 9. Wilmington also leads the Coastal in home attendance averaging 5,000 fans per game, and this is a very positive profile across the board in UNCW's Last Home Game. Finally, these two teams are tied for 4th in the CAA, and the top-4 seeds in next week's Coastal Conference Tournament get bye's into the quarterfinals on March 10. So the winner will get a bye and the No. 3 or 4 seed, while the loser falls to No. 5 or 6 and plays an extra CCT game starting on Sat., March 9 at the Entertainment & Sports Arena - Washington, D.C. 

More college basketball content and NCAA Tournament seeding profiles including top seeds and 3-5 seeds as we've provided in recent seasons. 

You can bet on it. 

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