Week 2 NFL Underdog Selections

Strong start to the NFL season with a 4-0 ATS sweep on our NFL Week 1 underdog picks. That included an outright winner on San Francisco, and three others that were right there for victory in the closing minute and overtime with all three at least a +6.5 underdog or more - Colts, Bengals and Texans on Monday night losing on a last second 58-yard field goal at New Orleans. 

Many bettors are (over) reacting to Week 1 results, and that provides plenty of opportunities in Week 2 as one of the best weeks of the season to wager on NFL games. The linemaker also adjusts, and will sometimes protect itself from being overexposed in teasers, providing even more value on underdogs as we noted in our analysis last week on the Bengals (up to +9.5 instead of +8.5).

My perfection reflection shows why I look forward to NFL Week 2, as a decade ago I went 10-0 on my point spread prognosis picks documented publicly. We won't have 10 picks to share this week, but at least 10 bets will be on my card combining various wagers from side bets to first half and halftimes, totals, props and of course money line underdogs. 

To keep you grounded in your evaluation of lines, I provide the look ahead lines for NFL games in which selected bookmakers provide advance lines for the following weeks games prior to that week's NFL games being played. It's worth reviewing each week, and then breaking down the match-ups, fundamentals and situations to support your plays. On Thursday, the Panthers closed a 6.5-point favorite this week and the look ahead line was -4.5 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Bettors liked the Panthers, but took a bath when Tampa Bay won outright 20-14; failing to head my warning on Twitter.

Bet on college football at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Here is a 'recency report' I provide each week with current week market moves and the NFL Week 3 look ahead lines. I hope this information helps you in your pursuit of profit, as I try to provide added insights beyond just the picks with the proverbial wisdom, "give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime." 

With eight (8...!) home underdogs in Week 2, the NFL card is ripe with potential upsets. Competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less, and playing a smaller percentage of your point spread wager on the money line is a prudent play when wagering on NFL underdogs. Over the past 2+ seasons, our NFL record on these pages is 55-27 ATS (67%) including 38 outright underdog winners. As mentioned previously, our 'Dog log will once in awhile (rarely) include a very slight favorite of 2 points or less, as these teams at home are considered underdogs based on the line, and this week Cincinnati was an underdog on the opening line that has now flipped to a slight favorite. 

If you like tracking NFL odds and percentages of bets on teams each week from a consensus of 7 leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes, then check out Sports Insights Live NFL odds for Week 2. 

This week's picks and plays – Shop lines at the leading online sports books. 

264 Detroit (+2.5) vs LA Chargers – Lions Money Line +115
273 Cincinnati (-1 or -1.5) vs San Francisco - Bengals Money Line -115
286 Denver (+2.5) vs Chicago - Broncos Money Line +115
290 NY Jets (+6.5) vs Cleveland - Jets Money Line +245

The Lions ran out of gas after mostly dominating the Cardinals for more than 3 quarters last week and keeping rookie QB Kyler Murray in check. Then a combination of conservative defense and less pressure and perhaps the amount of plays in the desert caught up with the Lions. Detroit led 24-6 seconds into the 4th quarter and blew it, allowing a late TD and 2-point conversion to send the game into overtime, where a pair of field goals ended in 27-27 final. It cost us a Under the total winner too, but we're back on the Lions in their own den for the home opener. Expect similar but more productive running against the Chargers after the Lions rushed the ball 32 times last week and LA allowed 203 rushing yards to the Colts and escaped with an overtime win. Matthew Stafford was very sharp last week passing for more than 360 net yards and 3 touchdowns with a more balanced attack this season in a new offense and improved offensive line. Match-up to watch is Lions CB Darius Slay against quick-release off the line WR Keenan Allen. Philip Rivers is a tremendous competitor, but he'll face more pressure this week and the Chargers offensive line is a weakness according to Pro Football Focus. Despite the Chargers road success a season ago winning seven regular season games, we'll call for them to drop their road opener as the Lions get on the board with a victory. 

The Bengals defense had a top-5 pass rush grade in Week 1 according to Pro Football Focus. Cincinnati out-gained the Seahawks in Seattle 429 (6.1 YPPL) to 233 (4.8) and somehow lost 22-21 while holding the Seahawks offense to just 12 first downs. Oh, a 3-1 turnover margin favoring the Seahawks was the difference. Bengals QB Andy Dalton passed for nearly 400 yards, and one concern is that the Bengals had no running game, mostly by design, while rushing just 14 times for 34 yards. Will the Bengals OL hold the 49ers defensive front in check? More issues with SF quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who played pretty poorly and was uneven and perhaps rusty in his return last week. The 49ers offense managed just 256 yards (4.3 YPPL), but took advantage of four Tampa Bay turnovers to get the road win. Both Cincinnati and San Francisco cashed in for us in our 4-0 Week 1 'Dog log, but beyond the stats and home opener for Cincinnati, the back-to-back road games to start the season for San Francisco suggests some struggles against an improved Bengals defense. 

There are some teams with lines that are clearly inflated this week on the Ravens, Texans and Patriots, who are laying a near record 19 points at Miami. Waiting until Sunday to bet those underdogs and others could provide you a little better price on already inflated favorites.    

Plenty of value and buy low, sell high opportunities this week and in early season NFL match-ups as the linemaker and sportsbooks adjust. Many bettors over-react to the NFL scores and results, media hype and noise that surrounds the most popular sport to bet on. Hazards and things out of your control during a game including turnovers and a bad bounce of the ball can turn winning bets into losing ones. But if you stay grounded in your approach, study and review relevant stats and insightful information, evaluate and understand the fundamental match-ups, you'll find the end zone and cashiers cage more often. 

You can bet on it.  

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay