College football analysis and underdog free picks

A subpar season thus far as we turn to the back nine of the college football season. A 1-2 result last week on our underdog picks included an outright winner with Cincinnati 27-24 over then No. 18 UCF, who has now dropped out of the Top 25 while Cincinnati moves in. Michigan State wasn't up to task against Ohio State, as the Buckeye's strong, balanced offense was too much for Sparty in a 34-10 win. Ohio State had over 500 total yards offense for the fourth time this season with a dominating 323 rushing at the point of attach. Our other ugly 'Dog was on winless New Mexico State (+4.5) , who tied the game midway through  the 4th quarter only to give back a quick touchdown. New Mexico State had the ball first and goal at the 5-yard line in the closing minutes only to fumble the game away in a 20-13 loss in a game they out-gained Liberty but suffered a 3-0 turnover margin deficit in defeat. 

Teams playing this week off a bye last week include (top 25 teams in bold):

Alabama, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Utah, USC, Arizona State, Washington State, BYU, Houston, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, So. Miss, No. Texas, Louisiana Tech, Miami (OH), Akron, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, Texas State  

We've been getting beat up taking some big 'Dogs against top teams, so we'll take our bone and go back to the 'Dog house and find some opponents in more competitive contests this week. However, if you asked me to pick sides this week in some of the big games and Top 25 match-ups, I would side with Texas A&M (+17.5) over Alabama, Texas (+10.5) over Oklahoma, Michigan State (+11) over Wisconsin and Florida (+13.5) over LSU. Yes, that's against those four highly-ranked teams with LSU (52 PPG), Alabama (52) and Oklahoma (49) the highest scoring teams in the country as well followed closely by Wisconsin (43). I would add Iowa (+3.5) over another Top 10 team in Penn State, but I said not included them on these pages this week. Note Texas and Washington State are scoring more than 40 points per game as well.   

NCAA Underdog Selections for Saturday, Oct. 12  

121 Louisville (+7) at No. 19 Wake Forest - Cardinals Money Line +205 
128 Temple (+5) vs Memphis - Owls Money Line +185
129 Nebraska (+7.5) at Minnesota - Cornhuskers Money Line +250 (see injuries)
147 Washington State (+1.5) at Arizona State - Cougars Money Line +105

Wake Forest is 5-0 and up to No. 19 in the current Associated Press poll. I cover the Top 25 weekly, but the polls are mostly meaningless yet add to the weekly college football conversation. The Demon Deacons are 2-0 in ACC play with close wins over North Carolina and two  weeks ago at Boston College. In that game, Wake allowed BC 533 balanced yards in just 24 minutes of possession for the Eagles, but 3 turnovers cost the Boston College in a 27-24 defeat despite a plus 2-yards-per-play advantage over Wake Forest. Then last week, Louisville (3-2) hosted Boston College and flew over the Eagles 41-39 racking up 664 yards offense at 8.5 yards per play with two quarterbacks splitting time. Louisville was more than 1-yard-per-play better than Boston College. Louisville is not only one of the most improved teams in the country under 1st year head coach Scott Satterfield , but also on our short list of efficient and balanced offenses.  In fact, Louisville is one of just eight teams that runs (207) for at least 200 yards and passes (263) for at least 250 yards per game. Wake Forest is also on that list, so the Deacons are not to be taken lightly. The Deacons defense is also allowing a league-low 26% third down conversions. But digging a little deeper, we note that Louisville has played a stronger schedule or opponents and has the better yards per play differential. The Cardinals lost at Florida State by 11 and opened the season at Top 10 Notre Dame and covered in a 35-17 defeat in a game the Cardinals rushed for 258 yards and had more first downs in a near even yardage game on the road. In a higher-scoring ACC game, we side with Louisville. 

Early kickoff Saturday and we turn to a defensive dominator in Temple (4-1) to slow the strong, balanced offense of Memphis (5-0). The Owls did just that back in Week 3 when they shutdown Maryland 20-17 as a home 'Dog at this same price point. Temple's defense is allowing just 4.0 yards per play versus FBS opponents to rank top-6 in the country. Memphis allowed 535 yards to UL Monroe last week, but still won 52-33 in a misleading final score with more big plays including on defense and special teams, which is better in this match-up. The Tigers offense is strong, but face by far their toughest defense to date and a top-tier pass defense. Coach Rod Carey has continued his success at Temple in his first year after many seasons leading the strong No. Illinois program. Let's try this defensive 'Dog at home with a few extra days of preparation for Temple.

My Golden Gophers (alumni) are off to a 5-0 start and many in Minny are happy. But in a game that would have had Nebraska a slight favorite early in the season, we must turn to Big Red to turn around their fortunes - of course with the assumption QB Adrian Martinez will play. The Gophers have won four of their five games against a softer schedule by 7 points or less. They caught Purdue without their quarterback and star receiver Moore, escaped in overtime at Fresno State and had to score a touchdown in the closing seconds to beat Georgia Southern. Only one of those opponents might end up in a bowl game. Nebraska (4-2) has covered just one game this season to cost their betting backers plenty. Dual-threat QB Martinez has not lived up to billing in his sophomore season, but he's still a dangerous weapon and leads a 'Huskers balanced offense that both runs and passes for at least 200 yards per game despite tons of turnover troubles. Nebraska has faced a stronger schedule of teams in Ohio State, No. Illinois, Northwestern and Colorado in a game Nebraska gave away after leading 17-0 at halftime. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan is having a breakout sophomore season with better than 11 yards per pass and an 11/3 TD-to-INT ratio. He passes to an excellent pair of receivers in Bateman (537 yards) and senior Tyler Johnson, who you'll be watching on Sunday's next season. Still, in a key Big Ten West battle, we side with Nebraska with an *, as Martinez (knee) must play for us to include and rate here. Martinez (knee) did practice the end of the week along with leading receiver JD Spielman (knee), but both are game time decisions following injuries in last week's win. The Cornhuskers also have two kickers ailing. A backup quarterback starting for Nebraska may see this line rise, which I may still play taking more points and also evaluate in-game betting opportunities. Also, watch the weather which shows a 50% chance of SNOW showers and rain mix with temps dipping below 40 degrees (it's October, you know why I left). Harder to Row the Boat, and while I like Goldy Gopher, the price is rising and they now face a stronger opponent.

Remember that yards per play stat? Washington State (3-2) is gaining 7.5 yards per play this season to rank top 5 in the country. That’s right up their with Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia and ahead of LSU. The Cougars pile up 535 yards per game which is also top 5 in the nation lead by a nation-best passing attack going for 442 per game and 52 pass attempts per game. Senior QB Anthony Gordon is having a heck of a debut season passing for more than 2100 yards and 22 TD's in coach Leache's Air Raid.Not sure how ASU will slow the Cougars offense having allowed Colorado 34 points and 337 passing yards in a loss on this field. Wazzu is 0-2 in Pac 12 play after allowing UCLA to get one of the greatest comeback wins in college football history 67-63. The loss at Utah followed last week and cost defensive coordinator Claeys his job. The Cougars now have 9 TO's in their last two games, but a bye week to get it cleaned up. Arizona State also enters off a bye and has beaten a pair of defensive dominators in Michigan State and Cal. Digging deeper we see some plus turnovers for ASU, who we realize will have the better of it in the running game. But most teams do against Wazzu, and the Cougars still have a better yards-per-play edge in this match-up with the Sun Devils averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and 4.8 yards per play on defense. The Cougars defense allows 6.6 yards per play, which is not good, but we like Leach over Edwards and the passing attack of the Cougars to lead WSU to a bounce back win. 

Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks, and if you want to check out where the money is being bet on these games from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker and 5Dimes, then check out Sports Insight's live college football odds and see the percentage of bets, most money and over/under money being wagered.     

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay