Week 3 NCAA Underdog Selections

We had a hangover in Week 2 following our brutal breaks and ATS losses in Week 1 college football. A 1-3 week included two terrible sides in blowout losses and a late winner on Texas A&M. We also went off the grid with Texas State, but suffered another bad ATS loss again as Texas State (+7) lost at home 23-14 despite out-gaining Wyoming 444 (5.8 yds per play) to 293 (4.4), 27-16 first down advantage and lost by 9 points as a 7-point underdog. When that happens, look at the turnover column and you will often find your answer, as Texas State was minus 2 in the TO column (3-1). Wyoming of course was a popular side, but a wrong one that got there to cash. 

That wasn't the only misleading final last week, and we'll try to take advantage of another one in our Week 3 college football underdog picks. 

There are no Top 25 match-ups in Week 3, and many top teams were winning one-sided games again last week. We'll go against a pair of Top 25 teams this week, and also make a situational play on a team coming off a bye week. 

Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks, and if you want to check out where the money is being bet on these games from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker and 5Dimes, then check out Sports Insight live college football odds and see the percentage of bets, most money and over/under money being wagered. 

Not as much to like or of interest with competitively-priced underdogs, but there will be plenty more in the weeks ahead. We'll shoot for some bigger 'Dogs against Top 25 opponents this week. 

NCAA Underdog Selections for Saturday, Sept 14

119 Pittsburgh (+17.5) at Penn State - Panthers Money Line +640
125 Air Force (+3.5) at Colorado - Falcons Money Line +145
138 South Carolina (+25.5) vs Alabama - Gamecocks Money Line  +1150 

The Pittsburgh offense has not performed well through two games, but improvement should be expected. It could be difficult against a solid Penn State defense, but Penn State struggled last week and had a most misleading final, scoring a miraculous ATS cover and 32-point win over Buffalo. But Penn State was out-gained by the Bulls 429-357 and Buffalo played ball control while running 90 offensive plays to just 46 for Penn State. The Nittany Lions were passing deep in the final minutes leading by 25. How could Penn State win 45-13? Whether a letdown, look ahead or other factors like lack of motivation, Penn State now goes from being out-yarded and out-played at times against a MAC team to an improved Panther on the prowl and plenty motivated for their cross-state rival after being embarrassed by the Big Ten boys last year 51-6. 

Air Force enters off a bye week and tries to tackle big brother after Colorado rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit last week to pull off a surprising finish and win over Nebraska, 34-31 in overtime. That emotional win for the Buffs saw them lose the battle in the trenches and the running game, and now the Air Force option will control the ball, clock and chains perhaps even more. Replicating the timing and pace of the Air Force triple option and slowing a precisely executed attack can be difficult with limited prep time. The rested and experienced Falcons are a solid Mountain West team, and better than the Colorado State team that out-gained Colorado 505-475 in the Buffs opening week misleading 21-point win. 

South Carolina plays the toughest schedule in the country this season, and the SEC grind starts against No. 2 Alabama at home. Of course the Tide are taking nearly 80% of the spread bets at the leading online sportsbooks consensus, as Alabama's fine-tuned offense can be unstoppable. The linemaker has to inflate the lines a little bit on powerful top teams that score plenty like Alabama. But South Carolina is no bottom feeding SEC team, and taking these points at home, even with a freshman QB Hilinski making his first conference start replacing Bentley, is the preferred play. The Gamecocks lost at North Carolina in their opener as a double-digit favorite, then took out their frustrations last week on FCS Charleston Southern 72-10 with highly-touted Hilinski playing well in his starting debut. South Carolina set school records for most yards (775) and rushing yards (493) last week, and we'll bet that they will do enough to stay inside the huge impost at home. 

Check out the latest scores and odds along with current online sportsbook offers as you pursue more profit in Week 3 college football. Be sure to follow my NFL Picks and Insights following a 4-0 Week 1 result.  

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay