Betting information for every Derby contender

It seems that Triple Crown winners come in bunches. In the 1930s there were three Triple Crown winners (Gallant Fox, Omaha and War Admiral), in the 1940s there were 4 winners (Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assault and Citation) and in the 1970s there were three winners again (Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed). But the 25 year drought between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 1973 and the 37 year old drought between Affirmed in 1978 and American Pharaoh in 2015 shows that the Triple Crown feat is still very rare. If a horse can win the Triple Crown in 2019 that will make 3 winners in the 2010s and the industry can desperately use a feel good story. American Pharaoh, and Justify last year, brought a new focus on the racing industry and their success, particularly American Pharaoh seemed to encouraged a new younger generation to adapt to the 'Sport of Kings'. But the remainder of 2018 and 2019 were a rough year for the racing industry.

Justify had to retire from racing after Bob Baffert noticed an injury to the horse’s leg, which prevented him from running in the Breeders Cup and in 2019 Santa Anita had to close for almost three weeks after 21 horses died on the race track either during a race or in workouts. The closure led to Belinda Stronach, the CEO of Santa Anita, to call for action on drug use to prevent horse deaths. Those deaths also seemed to invoke memories of tragedies past like Go for Wand and Eight Belles dying on the racetrack after a grueling race and media coverage led to protests from groups like Peta saying horse racing is cruel. The deaths also raised the question of racing surface and had many in the media questioning whether racing commissions and track owners are willing to sacrifice horse safety for the almighty dollar. Even England saw their share of misery when horse races were cancelled across the country for almost two weeks due to an outbreak of equine flu, which saw the deaths of some horses. So, the industry can use some good news for a change and the best remedy may well be another Triple Crown winner.

The question is which horse can do so.

Unlike in 2005 and last year, there is no clear-cut favorite entering the Derby, especially after Omaha Beach was scratched on Wednesday due to a throat problem. And there is a great question wondering whether any of the 19 horses entered have both the speed and stamina necessary to win the Derby and last the mile and a half Belmont Stakes.

Time will tell if its possible, but for now let’s focus on the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. I will be examining all horses, although certain horses can be quickly ruled out. Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Cutting Humor, Master Fencer, Long Range Toddy, Country House and Bodexpress have no real chance of winning. Some analysts are excited about Cutting Humor’s win in the Sunland Derby, but he beat nothing in that race and was trounced by Long Range Toddy prior to that, a horse I also have as a no-chancer. So here is an examination, by preference, of the other 13 horses entered in Saturday’s race following the scratch of favorite Omaha Beach.

Game Winner (odds 4-1)
Game winner was the clear favorite entering the 2019 season after going 4 for 4 in 2018, including three Grade 1 wins and a romp in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. The Bob Baffert trained horse started as the 1 to 2 favorite in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and looked on his way to passing Omaha Beach for the victory, but came up short in the stretch run. In his subsequent race, as the overwhelming favorite at the Santa Anita Derby, he again failed to pass Roadster. In that race he stayed close to the lead, but the very slow pace clearly didn’t help his running style. Consecutive close defeats may be a cause for concern due to what Andrew Beyer called "a sucker horse" in his book Picking Winners, but Game Winner proved last year that he is full of game and two good workouts after the Santa Anita Derby could set him up for the win, provided he gets a decent trip. He will be starting from post 15 which has produced three winners in the past and his running style should ensure he won’t have too many traffic problems. Game Winner was my pick to win the Derby entering the year and two close defeats to excellent horses isn’t a cause for concern. The 1 ¼ mile distance could be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Maximum Security (odds 6-1)
It’s hard to fathom that a horse who started his career in a maiden $16,000 claimer is a serious candidate to win the Run for the Roses, but Maximum Security has been shockingly good in each race. After two dominant wins in optional claiming races at Gulfstream, he decided to run in the Florida Derby. Almost every handicapper assumed that race would bring him back to reality, but Maximum Security led every step of the way and pulled away in the stretch to win by 3 lengths in good time. The Florida Derby has been a decent predictor of Derby success in the past and there is little speed in this race, which could play right into this horse’s hands. He starts from post 7 which has been among the most successful starting positions in the Derby and Luis Saez who has a 22% winning percentage in 2019 and 51% in-the-money will retain the mount on the horse following his Florida Derby win. A victory here would surely rank among the Cinderella stories of all Derbies and may be something that the public may get excited about to change some of the negative attitudes that currently exist for horse racing.

Improbable (odds 5-1)
Another Bob Baffert trained horse, Improbable has never been worse than 2nd and ran a close 2nd to Omaha Beach in the Oaklawn Derby. He seemed to be a bit better in 2018 than the start of 2019, but Bob Baffert seems to like this horse over his other two runners, Game Winner and Roadster which could say something. Improbable is also the oldest runner in the field having been born among the first foals and he is from the same connections as Justify last year. Improbable also gets post position 5, which has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners with 10. Still, if Improbable is going to win this he’ll need to show more than he has in his last two races.

Roadster (odds 9-2)
The 3rd Bob Baffert horse in the field, Roadster held on strongly as mentioned earlier to beat Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby. Prior to that race he had two victories, but also suffered a sound beating by Game Winner in the Del Mar Futurity as a 2 year-old. He was foaled in May which is a bit of a concern since 80% of Kentucky Derby winners have been foaled in January, February or March. He starts one position outside of Game Winner in post position 16 which could help both jockeys keep an eye on the other horse if they deem each other to be the main competition. My hunch is that Roadster is still a cut below Game Winner.

Tacitus (odds 8-1)
After a mediocre start to his career, Tacitus has run off three straight victories, including an impressive win in the Wood Memorial, despite being bumped. Jose Ortiz, who has ridden him in every race will be aboard him again. He has a running style that wins the Derby and gets post position 8, which has produced multiple Derby winners. One concern may be that Juddmonte Farms, despite 7 Breeders Cup wins and hundreds of other Grade 1 wins throughout the world, has never had a Kentucky Derby winner. The Wood Memorial has also not been a great predictor of Kentucky Derby success. Nevertheless, Tacitus has to be considered a serious contender, but is not my pick to win.


Tax (odds 20-1)
Another possible Cinderella story, Tax started his career in maiden claiming races, but after being claimed for $50,000 from Claiborne Farms by R.A. Hill Stables, his new owners decided to try him in stakes races and were pleasantly surprised, finishing 2018 with a 3rd place finish in the Remsen and in 2019 he had a win at the Whitney despite stumbling and a close second to Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. His times after being claimed improved dramatically making some wonder what his new stable did to turn him around. Tax’s biggest drawback could be the number 2 starting stall and his name. It’s hard to see anyone rooting for a horse named Tax only a couple of weeks after the April 15 tax deadline date.

Vekoma (odds 20-1)
Vekoma has 3 wins in 4 races including an impressive victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, but he really hasn’t beaten much. He was 3rd in the Fountain of Youth to Code of Honor who really hasn’t shown much of late. Vekoma starts from post position 6 which is a positive.

Win Win Win (odds 14-1)
Win Win Win had a good 2 year-old season beating mediocre horses in 4 victories at Laurel and Tampa, and in 2019 he came charging through the stretch in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, losing to both Tacitus and Vekoma. That big burst of speed has many handicappers excited, but rarely do horses come from nowhere to win the Derby and especially in races devoid of speed as this year’s Derby seems to be. He starts from post position 13.

War of Will (odds 20-1)
A confusing horse, the Canadian started his career on turf where he had fairly poor results, but improved dramatically when switching to dirt, finishing 2018 with a win at Churchill Downs to break his maiden. He impressively won two races at the Fair Grounds and was the overwhelming favorite in the Louisiana Derby, where he threw a clunker finishing near the back. His handlers believe he had an excuse in that race, although no one is sure what that was. He loves to close and that will be important coming from the rail which is deemed to be the worst starting spot in the Derby, despite 8 winners having come from the number 1 post in the past. It would be a miraculous turnaround after the Louisiana Derby, but anything is possible.

By My Standards (odds 20-1)
This horse lost three straight maiden races before breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds in February and he followed it up with a close win in the Louisiana Derby. He likes to close, but does have tactical speed, which is important in the Derby. Still a win by By My Standards would be a shock.

Code of Honor (odds 10-1)
A Doctor Jekyll and Mr. Hyde horse, he looked great in winning the Fountain of Youth, but had an average race in the Florida Derby, where he suffered traffic problems after being bumped. His biggest asset may be jockey John Velasquez, who has won the Derby on multiple occasions and seems to get the best out of horses in the big races. Code of Honor has post position 12 which is an ideal starting spot for the Derby. He could be a possible upset, but I don’t like the low odds.

Spinoff (odds 30-1)
The horse looked like nothing special until he romped in an optional claiming race at Tampa Bay to start 2019 and followed that up with a close 2nd place finish to By My Standards in the Louisiana Derby. In that start he got bumped badly at the beginning which may have cost him the win. He would be a major surprise.

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