NBA Best Betting Picks: Suns and Mavericks – Encore!

Phoenix beat Dallas on Wednesday in the final minute of play. Can they beat the Mavs again on Friday night?

After a thrilling game on Wednesday, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks meet again this Friday night. Phoenix (11-3) returns as a slightly bigger betting favorite per their NBA odds, although it took them to the last minute to put away Dallas (9-5).

Devin Booker hit a tough three-pointer in the final minute to seal the game for the Suns. Phoenix struggled against a scrappy Dallas team, which was without its superstar, Luka Doncic. The Suns failed to cover the eight-point spread but preserved its winning streak, which now sits at ten and is the best from the franchise since the 2006-07 season. 

As an encore, Phoenix will look to beat Dallas more convincingly this time. The Suns are 3-0 in rematches this season, including two games against opponents who beat them. Doncic will likely be absent for Dallas, which faces another uphill climb to cash as underdogs. 

Game of the Night: Can Suns Burn Mavericks Again?

Phoenix is the rightful favorite here, having beaten Dallas in seven of their last ten meetings. The Suns have also not lost at home against Dallas with Chris Paul in their roster, and are 8-1 against them in their last nine games in the arena. 

The Underdog: Mavericks Get A Second Shot

Dallas held their ground in the first meeting, limiting the hot Suns to just 105 points. This was the third-fewest points Phoenix scored in its ten-game streak. The Mavericks limited Phoenix to a 51.1% effective field goal (EFG) rate, below their 53% average. 

Dallas Mavericks free pickDallas did worse on their end though, shooting just 50.5% EFG while also losing the turnover battle and allowing eight more free throws. In a tight game, these edges proved to be the difference. 

Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. led the team in scoring with 43 total points. But they also shot a combined 16-of-43 (37.2%). They’ll need to do better here, and in Porzingis’ case, he will need to reassert himself as the dominant big man as Suns center DeAndre Ayton can’t be scoring freely in the post… again. 

Stat To Watch: If Dallas will cash as an underdog on the NBA betting lines, it will need to start fast against Phoenix. Dallas was neck-and-neck with Phoenix from the get-go. They can take advantage of a Phoenix team that tends to start slow on defense, allowing 27.5 first quarter points when at home.

Pick: First To Score 20 Points – Dallas Mavericks +150

The Favorite: Suns Looking To Repeat

Few NBA teams are as consistent as the Phoenix Suns. Most have had their highs and lows in this young season, but the Suns keep delivering. Phoenix beat Dallas to improve to 6-2 at home and 11-2 as a betting favorite. The Suns may have also failed to cover the spread, but that would only be the third time in their ten-game winning streak. 

Led by Paul, the Suns are one of the most efficient teams in the league. Phoenix’s assist-to-turnover ratio is second in the NBA during their current run and the team only had a 6.6% turnover rate against the Mavericks. 

Phoenix Suns predictionPhoenix focuses on a ball-control style, which is hard to disrupt when most of the Suns players are on the same page. There is plenty of continuity with this team and they can score from anywhere on the court. If Phoenix is to lose, the opponent will need to find a way to get at their ball movement. 

Stat To Watch: Dallas hung around but ultimately the Suns overwhelmed them in the fourth. That’s almost by design, as the Suns are averaging a whopping 124.4 offensive rating in the fourth quarter when at home. This turned out to be the highest scoring quarter in their first meeting — so at 2-1, it’s worth betting it will be again.

Pick: Highest Scoring Quarter – 4th Quarter +210

Our Pick To Win . . . 

Phoenix is even better the second time around. Two coaches with great chemistry: Monty Williams on the bench and Paul on the floor. The Suns are great at making adjustments, reading and reacting to their opponents. Dallas played above itself in the previous game but still lost. 

It’s tough banking on Phoenix though to blow out the Mavericks here, as their focus on efficient possessions prevent them from exploding on teams. It is more of a slow and consistent process. As such, take the short payout and lay the price with Phoenix at the BetUS sportsbook — don't chance the points and take the near 30% return.

Pick: Phoenix Suns -350

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