NBA Betting -- Warriors Want to Exploit "Deflation Rate" in Portland

  • In Charles Jay
  • Mon, May 20th, 2019 11:46:03 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Portland Trail Blazers will attempt to avoid being swept by the Golden State Warriors as they host them in Game 4 of the NBA West finals at the Moda Center.


Let's pose a serious question regarding the NBA playoffs - just because a team is down three games to none, is it somehow automatic that they would come back with a big effort in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, as they seek to avoid being swept? And will the team that is virtually assured of a series victory let up a little, thus helping to pave the way?

These are essential questions to be asked as we approach Game 4 between the Golden State Warriors (up 3-0) and the Portland Trail Blazers (trying to "stave off" elimination, as they say), which tips off at 9:05 PM ET at the Moda Center.

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Warriors NBA playoff preview
Golden State has now won consecutive games in which they have come back from at least thirteen points, and that is the first time that has happened in the NBA playoffs. And it has to be very deflating for the Blazers to have gone through an experience where they had victory in the palm of their hands in Oakland, then turned around and blew an 18-point second quarter lead in Game 3. They have played well enough to win, but unfortunately, only for about 36 of the 48 minutes.

They have been blitzed pretty good in the third quarters of these games, outscored by a total of 28 points. To think that they could go from scoring a robust 66 points in the first half of Saturday's game, then tally only 13 points in the third period, that's, well, deflation.

And remember that this is taking place against a team that is missing two All-Star players (Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins). So naturally, coach Terry Stotts has to be wondering what he can do to put a win on the board, especially as no one can really expect that the Warriors are going to repeat their three-point shooting efforts from Game 3 (outside of Steph Curry's 6-of-16, they were just 20%).

In the NBA betting odds for this Game 4, the Warriors are now the favorites, after being a 2.5-point underdog in Game 3:

Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-105)
Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 (-105)

Over 219.5 points (-102)
Under 219.5 points (-108)

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Portland NBA pick vs WarriosI'm not sure if I mentioned this in the recent past, but before the playoffs started, Jerry West, an executive with the Clippers who had previously worked in the Golden State front office, remarked that if the Warriors had a glaring weakness, it was their bench.

Such has not been the case against Portland. Steve Kerr may get flagged from time to time for being a "push button coach," and he does admittedly have some of the most dazzling talent at his disposal. But in the wake of injuries, and in pursuit of taking advantage of matchups, whatever buttons Kerr has been pushing here, they've been the right ones.

The bench has been absolutely critical to their success, as Kerr has managed their minutes. Just take a look at the Net Ratings (Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating) for these reserves:

Kevon Looney +54
Quinn Cook +27
Jordan Bell +25
Shaun Livingston +43
Jonas Jerebko +31
Alfonzo McKinnie +64

McKinnie in particular was a standout in Game 3, racking up a plus-minus of +24 (a high for the game) while pulling down nine rebounds in just 21 minutes of action. This bench will be taxed once again, with the possibility that Andre Iguodala, who injured his Achilles, can't play (he's listed as questionable).

We would imagine that Enes Kanter, who has the top rebounding percentage of anyone who has played more than fifteen minutes in this series, will get more playing time in Game 4. Kanter, who is operating with a bad shoulder, fasting for Ramadan and dealing with death threats coming from the dictatorial regime in his native Turkey, had seven points and five rebounds in a little more than seven minutes on Saturday.

But his defensive shortcomings tend to be exploited by this Golden State team, which makes him come out and defend pick and rolls and often puts someone on the floor at center (Draymond Green) who can cause hurt in so many ways on the offensive end.

I wouldn't blame the Blazers if they were discouraged. But right now, it appears as if Kerr is able to dial up so many matchup advantages that there is nowhere to turn. And that is, once again, deflating. Because we know that there is a real-world benefit in the Warriors wrapping this thing up early and getting some extra rest over the next opponent (whether it's Toronto or Milwaukee) we tend to minimize the "letdown" factor. So we'll lay the points, although it's not the biggest play we'd make in these conference finals.

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