NBA Finals Betting – Oh, the “Other” Story: Raptors and Warriors Play Game 6

  • In Charles Jay
  • Thu, Jun 13th, 2019 12:48:00 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Golden State Warriors are looking to even up the NBA Finals with the Toronto Raptors at three games apiece on Thursday night.


Well, we wanted to wait to see what the word was on Kevin Durant as of Wednesday, and we find out that not only was he diagnosed with a ruptured Achilles tendon, he was already operated on.

And so now the struggle begins, and the speculation as to what potential suitors will do about it intensifies.

Oh yes, not to mention more and more speculation about who knew what and when - a story line that, frankly, has become juicier than the games themselves that are being played out in the NBA Finals.

The players on the Golden State Warriors, some of whom, prior to Game 5, may have been questioning whether Durant should get out there and "take one for the team," have now seen him go out there and do just that - and then some. And so they were set to use that as a rallying cry.

It's easy to reinvent; to revise the narrative. Whatever works.

And Durant has quickly transformed himself from a guy that a lot of people had questions about to, well, damn near a martyr. A hero.

But it's neither unfair nor inaccurate to say that he is still damaged goods.

Whatever the case, there is Game 6 to play, even though some social media mavens may find less interest in that.

If you're handicapping, you obviously can't afford to get sentimental or emotional about it, and you have to be able to see through the posturing. That gets us back to the fundamentals that govern this matchup. And while I looked at this series and thought the Warriors could win this without their two-time Finals MVP, the Toronto Raptors have exceeded my expectation in terms of the poise with which they have handled things, and frankly, the performance of their first-year coach.

Nick Nurse has had that edge over Steve Kerr, and while that's not a major surprise on the part of this reporter, it is nonetheless something to be admired. What’s NOT to be admired is the "I knew nothing" attitude on the part of Kerr, retrospectively, toward Durant's injury, at least as evidenced by his quotes. He said that he was “shocked” that it could have escalated into an Achilles injury, although there were doctors speaking in public, including a regular "news source" named Dr. Alan Beyer, who were pretty clear about that.

Don't think those players who feel very badly for Durant are ignoring that either.

In the NBA Finals betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Warriors are the favorites:

Golden State Warriors -2.5 (-108)
Toronto Raptors +2.5 (-102)

Over 211.5 points (-105)
Under 211.5 points (-105)

And remember, those numbers reflect "reduced juice," which in effect gives you the most value of any deal in the online sportsbook industry, because it works on every wager, and can work on other sports like baseball and football. It's a useful tool as you seek profitability.

There are, of course, plenty of story lines to look at here, other than Durant. One of them is that the Warriors will be playing their last game at Oracle Arena in Oakland - no ifs, ands or buts - and therefore there is speculation that somehow this provides some kind of major emotional boost. Well, how did they know they were ever going to get back here? This is the NBA championship series, and Game 3 and 4 were not close. At home. As Golden State had the opportunity to first really get a leg up in this series, then (in Game 4) to even it up. They just won a game in Toronto, albeit by the hair of their chinny-chin-chin. That means this could have been a "close-out" game, if they had been able to win ONE game on their own floor.

So I am not convinced that emotion can carry the day, any more than I was moved by the fact that the Boston Bruins were hosting Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time ever. By this time, everybody knows the other team's secrets. And fatigue trumps emotion. Really, the last great variable in this series was the participation of Durant, who had dropped 51 points on the Raptors in one game during the regular season.

Another thing here is that if you believe in regression to the mean, the battle of three-pointers could be something that tells the difference. Durant made three triples in the first quarter alone, and that was on Golden State's way to making TWENTY on the evening. Meanwhile, Toronto went just 8-of-32 from beyond the arc. If that evens out just a little, are you not looking at something that more than makes up the difference in Game 5?

We figured Durant might be a distraction for the Warriors if they put him in the game. But what they did instead was just put the ball in his hands and, essentially, but themselves in his hands. It worked that way, as KD actually had a plus-minus of +8 on the floor. Now they are back to what they were doing before, which wasn't incredibly effective.

Steve Kerr saw inconsistency in DeMarcus Cousins, and did not really have any intention of playing him very much in Game 5 - that is, until Durant went down. But Cousins, ironically having come back from a torn Achilles, was a godsend, with 14 points and six rebounds in 19 minutes. He's a legitimate scoring threat, and the Dubs could probably use the balance he brings, but again, he's been off-and-on and does NOT defend well. Toronto has figured out various ways to compromise him that way.

And we're not sure at all about the status of Kevin Looney, who can do some of the things Cousins can't, but has been doing those things with an incredible amount of pain.

I read somewhere that Toronto has won 16 of the 20 quarters that has been played between these teams. That, along with the fact that they have done a better job in offensive rebounding, free throws and turnovers, should give you a road map here. We know that the Warriors haven't lost three playoff games in a row at home under Kerr. And we know that the "smart money" has already moved the line Toronto's way.

Still, I think the value could be with the Raptors at this point.

Remember that you can get reduced juice at BetAnySports. And so you don't have to lay the customary -110 in basketball, and can get better odds on other sports as well. Could there be a better value than that? And if you want to keep the action going after the game begins, real-time wagering comes through Live Betting Ultra. ........ Open your account using a major credit card or person-to-person transfers (like Western Union or MoneyGram). You can also use cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which NEVER incurs a transaction fee.

(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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