Free Pick for the Week 4 NFL on Prime matchup between the Lions and Packers

It’s the fourth week of the NFL season beginning Thursday evening, an NFC North scrum with the 2-1 Detroit Lions visiting Lambeau Field to oppose the 2-1 Green Bay Packers. The winner of this game is the early-season leader of the division.

Detroit is a tepid 1½-point favorite (total at 46), according to NFL odds.

The moneyline is Detroit favored at -125, with Green Bay a home dog at +105. 

Detroit entered this season as the favorite to win the North, and nothing’s changed. It is currently just below even-money at -105, while the Packers are second choice at 3-2 (+150), per NFL division odds.

Detroit lost, 37-31, to the Seattle Seahawks at home, sandwiched by a pair of wins (at Kansas City in the opener and against Atlanta last week).

Green Bay, having blown away the Chicago Bears to begin the season, played two subsequent one-point games (a loss at Atlanta, win over New Orleans).

Long a rivalry in the old Black and Blue Division. Green Bay has a 105-75-7 lead (including two postseason games), though the Lions have won the last three. 

Restoring the Roar

Other than its lone losing effort, Detroit has played some defense. It was able to edge the mistake-prone Kansas City Chiefs on the road, then limited the Atlanta Falcons to a pair of field goals. 

Coach Dan Campbell made it clear that his team would be aggressive on that side of the ball, and this point, it’s been true. Having surrendered just 72 rushing yards per game, Detroit is ranked fifth in that category. 

There are some questions in the secondary, Detroit allowing 225.3 yards/game (bottom half of the league).

Quarterback Jared Goff (819 passing yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions) is still somewhat of a wildcard, but has reliable targets in Amon-Ra St Brown (21 receptions, 275 yards) and Sam LaPorta (18 receptions, 186 yards). 

Love in Wisconsin

It’s still way too early to grade quarterback Jordan Love. but the first reviews have been positive. While the completion percentage (53.1%) isn’t great, 655 yards with seven touchdowns against just one interception means there’s more good than bad thus far.

Green Bay, playing without some key personnel during much or all of the season (running back Aaron Jones, wide receiver Christian Watson [both hamstrings] among them), may be getting one or both back Thursday evening.

Green Bay has averaged just 308 yards per game, actually surrendered more yardage than it accumulates.

That’s not necessarily a fair number to use, playing shorthanded the way Green Bay has to this point in the season. 

Packers to Prevail

While the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers both enter at 2-1, one hasn’t looked that much better than the other,

Expect an extremely tight game between these foes, perhaps the return of some weapons (and home field) making the difference. Thus, we are endorsing Green Bay on the moneyline (+105) in this game.