Betting tips and top picks for the AFC and NFC Championship

The AFC and NFC conference championship games are upon us. Four teams - Buffalo, Kansas City, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay - remain in the race to Super Bowl LV.

Bettors and fans have been blessed with outstanding playoff football, which will likely continue this Sunday. Both home teams - Kansas City and Green Bay - are favorites, which is not surprising.

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Also, not surprising is that the betting value this week lies squarely on quarterbacks, though said value may not be on the quarterbacks you think.

Aaron Rodgers & Green Bay (-3.5)

The Packers will host Tampa Bay and future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady. The Bucs quarterback led Tampa Bay to an upset of New Orleans last week, which was his 31st (NFL record) playoff victory. Brady has won nine conference championship games and the Bucs have won seven straight games on the road.

Sports betting on Brady and the Bucs makes perfect sense. Legendary quarterback. Team on a hot streak. But, Green Bay has a future Hall of Fame quarterback of its own, as well as its own streak.

Aaron Rodgers has been good to bettors his entire career. Rodgers is 120-84-5 ATS for his career. At home on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, Rodgers is 62-35-4 ATS. Betting on Rodgers has proven effective historically.

This year, Rodgers is enjoying an MVP-worthy season with 4,299 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. The Packers have won seven straight and they are 5-2 ATS during that span covering every spread -8.5 or lower. 

Oh, and there is Tampa Bay’s record at Lambeau. The last 16 times the Bucs have played in Green Bay, they are 1-15.

We went 1-2 on our picks last week, check them out at NFL Divisional Round best bets.

Josh Allen & Buffalo (+3)

The Bills will play in a conference championship game for the first time since 1995. They travel to Kansas City, the home of reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. The big question, of course, for the Chiefs is the status of Mahomes who left last week's win over Cleveland in the third quarter.

Mahomes suffered a concussion and must clear the league's protocol in order to play on Sunday. Either way, it may not matter. Here's why.

Kansas City is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games. The point differential in their last eight wins is 2, 4, 3, 6, 6, 3, 3, and 5. The Chiefs have had a difficult time covering point spreads over the last half of the season. 

One of the big reasons why, is their performance in certain situations. Take red zone defense as an example. Kansas City ranked dead last in the NFL in red zone touchdown conversion rate. Opponents that got into the Chiefs’ red zone scored 76.6 percent of the time.

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Over the second half of the regular season, Chiefs' opponents scored touchdowns on 18 of 21 red zone trips. The bottom line is the Chiefs have a problem covering spreads.

Heading into Sunday, they will face a quarterback in Josh Allen that has been very good to bettors throughout his short career as the Bills starter. Allen is 27-17-2 ATS in his two-plus seasons under center.

He rates very well as an underdog too with a 14-6-2 ATS mark and performs equally as well on the road where he is 13-5-2 ATS. Make Allen a road underdog and he really turns it on. He is 8-2-2 ATS in such situations. 

With the Bills 9-1 ATS since Week 9, and the possibility of Mahomes not playing, it makes complete sense to back Buffalo in the AFC title game.