New Year's Six Bowl Previews and Picks

Following our college football championship previews and picks, along with our season-long Top 25 previews and picks that hit the mark on some of the biggest games and finished slightly above .500, it's time to analyze the biggest bowl games and chip-in some big game bets.

Of course there is added caution with so much line movement at the online sportsbooks, plus the ongoing opt-outs of players, coaching changes and motivation issues to monitor. 

So much to cover and follow during college bowl season, and I added some pre-Christmas bowl coverage, and can certainly do better like we did in our 2021 New Year's Six Bowl betting picks. My bowl coverage has also included onsite media coverage of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, where I chipped in coverage and a over the total winner in Kansas' 49-36 victory over UNLV. I'll continue coverage when I attend Saturday's Arizona Bowl in Tucson, and a major line move now shows Wyoming (-3.5) favored over Toledo with the Rockets QB opting-out earlier this month and transferring through the portal. 

I've added my picks and opinions for the New Year's Six bowl games plus an added Top 25 match-up on New Year's Eve and Dec. 30. Monitor the betting lines at the online sportsbooks of choice, including reduced juice shops. Compare the best spreads and moneylines, and support Offshore Gaming Association by becoming an OSGA VIP! 

The bookies who built the business

There are more factors than ever that go into handicapping and betting college football bowl games. Beyond the motivation and stat profiles, you can see how the odds, lines and totals adjust. That will continue to be something to monitor with coaching changes, injuries, suspensions, transfers and players opting out, all impacting the games and betting market. While we have made some picks below, and not at the best numbers posting days before the games with more line movement, it's recommended to cut back your wagering size (except on Michigan!) if you decide to bet these games and picks. I've reduced ratings accordingly. 

With the biggest bet bowl games, we'll feature some of the Best 'B' leading online sportsbooks below.

New Year's Day Bowl Games: Predictions, Opinions and Leans

ReliaQuest Bowl | 12 p.m. | ESPN2 | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Wisconsin vs. No. 13 LSU (-10), total 55.5 at BetUS
Opinion: Wisconsin 

Little line movement since opening LSU -10.5 back in early Dec., and the total is holding steady at 55.5. LSU Heisman-winning QB Jayden Daniels will not play, and Garrett Nussmeier makes his first start. He's not nearly as mobile as Daniels, and he'll face a Wisconsin defense that hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game this season. LSU's defense was the worst in the SEC allowing 417 yards per game vs. FBS opponents and 30+ points seven times. The Badgers won’t have star running back Braelon Allen, but they appear the better option with the Vols a bigger risk laying double-digits with such a suspect defense. 

Cheeze-It Citrus Bowl | 1 p.m. | ABC | Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 21 Tennessee (-6.5), total 35.5 at BetAnySports
Opinion: Iowa 

The side and total has dipped 1/2 to 1 point, and this game features teams with very contrasting styles. Tennessee's up-tempo offense averages 453 yards per game vs. FBS opponents - more than 90 YPG more than their opponents allow. But the Vols struggled against top end defenses including Georgia late season in a 38-10 loss. Iowa's dreadful, dogged offense averages just 16.6 points per game and a nation-worst 240 YPG - 111 YPG less than their opponents allow on average. They also were shutout by Penn State and Michigan in the Big Ten Championship game, but both those defenses are also top 5 in the country like Iowa's. The Hawkeyes defense allows just 274 YPG and just 3.9 yards per play - No. 2 in the country. Vols QB Joe Milton will not play, and Nico Iamaleava makes his first start against an elite defense. 

VRBO Fiesta Bowl | 1 p.m. | ABC | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon (-16.5), total 67 at BetMania
Lean: Oregon

The side and total are both up about 3 points, and the Ducks motivation will be a factor but Oregon is clearly capable of running up the score. 

The Rose Bowl presented by Prudential | 5 p.m. | ABC | The Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan (-1), total 45 (CFP Semifinal) at BetUS   
Pick: Michigan 

Michigan is down to -1 at BetUS, and as high as -2.5 at BookMaker, so monitor and shop the best line knowing their is more betting support on Alabama. I disagree, and this game is right in front of you in black and white with the total down from 46.5 to 45. Michigan is 25-1 SU under ultra-efficient future NFL quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Alabama is the one team that doesn't belong in the College Football Playoff, as the CFP committee chose prized TV ratings over actual results on the field to include Alabama. Quarterback Jalen Milroe's early season struggles found him on the bench. While his late-season ascension helped lead 'Bama back to an SEC Championship and CFP, the 'Tides unbelievably lucky win (no cover winner) over Auburn with Milroe claiming he's a Heisman winner (hu?) is driving more media hype. Georgia did a good job of bottling up Milroe in the SEC Championship game with 'Bama's QB running 14 times for 29 yards and just 13/23 passing for 192 yards in Alabma's 27-24 win. Milroe will makes mistakes and we'll see some turnovers with knowing too that Alabama finished the season 76th in passing and 49th in rushing with a weaker offensive line than we are used to seeing. Milroe and his mates are about to find out what it's like to be smacked and sacked by an elite defense as the Wolverines win and power their way to the national championship game. 

All State Sugar Bowl | 8:45 p.m. | ABC | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, New Orleans, LA
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas (-4), total 63 (CFP Semifinal) at BookMaker
Opinion: Over total 

No movement on the total, and slight downward move on Texas from -4.5 to -4. Efficient offenses averaging 36-38 points per game. Texas is more balanced, but Washington and QB Michael Penix, Jr. showed they can score more against a solid defense with a pair of 30+ point wins over Oregon.

Dec. 30 

Chic-Fil-A Bowl Peach Bowl | 12 p.m. | ESPN | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Penn State (-4.5), total 48.5 at MyBookie
Lean: Ole Miss 

Penn State is up 1 point to -4.5, and -4 at more online sportsbooks with the total has held steady. Penn State start edge rusher Chop Robinson won't play, or Ole Miss DE Cedric Johnson. But reports are now that Penn State star CB Kalen King will play, along with OL Olu Fashanu. The Nittany Lions elite top 5 defense that allowed a nation-low 231 yards per game (FBS) will still have to try and disrupt top QB Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss and the Rebels more balanced offense that averages 436 YPG. More changes include Penn State defenses coordinator leaving to take the Duke HC job, and while the Ole Miss defense is far more vulnerable, this is another example of so many changes, preparations and more to monitor. 

Capital One Orange Bowl | 4 p.m. | ESPN | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia (-19.5), total 44.5 at BetOnline
Lean: Over

This line has surged the most of all the big bowl games, up from Georgia -14.5 to -19.5 and now -20 at BetOnline. The total is down a point. So many changes and motivation issues for Florida State especially after what many believe that the CFP committee stole a CFB spot from the Seminoles. 

Dec. 29

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic | 8 p.m. | ABC | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State (-5.5), total 50.5
Opinion: Ohio State

I played Ohio State when this line dipped below -3, and on game day it's risen from -3.5 to -4.5 and even -5.5 as more bets pile in on the Buckeyes. The total is down 1-1.5 points at 50.5. 

Happy New Year and see your for the national championship game Jan. 8, 2024 from Houston. 

Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting news and insights.