Lines are available for every NFL game this season, but why would anyone bet them at this time?
I realize there are many that will defiantly debate me that playing the opening NFL lines are a wise investment. But there is a relatively new custom that offers a spread, money line and point total for EVERY SINGLE NFL game during the regular sixteen game, seventeen-week season.
Do these experts know something that others don’t? Like which starting quarterbacks will likely be injured for the remainder of the season. Which franchise running backs or wide receiver will be on potential extended suspension for beating their significant other. And most certainly, what weather will be exactly forecasted for that specific football day. Alright, maybe that’s why there are all these new stat companies aiding bettors for this type of 21st century info.
Let me point it out, the point spread and every other sports bet is created for the exact moment with the intention to play fairly to both sides. The bookmaker’s dream is to obtain even wagering, receive their vigorish (commission) for every bet and retire. Of course, that does not happen, often creating valued risk and opportunity for either the bettor or more often, the bookmaker. But to confidently guess on events happening two to six months in advance with unlimited added uncertainties is certainly insane. Especially, especially in the most unpredictable and injury-riddled sport of all – NFL football.
Who Started All This?
CG Technology is the first sportsbook operator in Nevada, and the US, to release point spreads for the entire 2019 NFL season. It is expected that many others will follow suit in the U.S. adopting the opportunity upon demand. There are some special rules to bet on these games stated by CG for all NFL games next season. The most critical thing to know is that the lines will change as bettors place wagers. The same point spread, or total will not likely appear in a few days and beyond obviously not be available in a few months.
The event must be played on the scheduled date and venue for these early wagered upon football games. Bets placed early could be canceled if a game is postponed or the venue is moved to an alternative location. We all can remember perhaps the best game of the 2018 NFL season, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams, was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles shortly before the event was to take place that Monday night. Proving my point (and total), who knew about that flooded field in Mexico?
The early lines also have limits on what kind of bets can be made. Point spreads, money lines, and totals must be bet individually. Just in case a curious bettor is beyond insane, parlays or teasers are NOT allowed for these early lines.
Looking for Tasty Worms
Yes, I will admit to the other side it is tempting to be the wise-guy, the 'told-you-so' to look smart with your friends right after Halloween or Thanksgiving. Going back to last year many San Francisco 49ers games had them giving generous points in Week 9 or 10, way before star QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down for the season. On the other side, you would have received many gift points or (+) money lines on San Diego Chargers games by forecasting their success in the second half of the season.
Just for fun (and sheer stupidity) I will look at a few tasty worms this upcoming NFL season:
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Dallas Cowboys -3
Speculating, guessing, whatever…. on the line itself, should the Eagles get off to a great start, they are likely to be the favorite in this game. They’re putting up the traditional -3 line involving two relatively evenly matched teams playing on the Cowboys AT&T Stadium turf. Which is an old, worn-out theory. Not speculating on the outcome here, but focusing on the line value, could be generous looking ahead. Even better on the point total going Over. With no prospective major injuries on offense, these two teams playing a late day game should light up the scoreboard in an evenly matched traditional NFC East rivalry.
Kansas City Chiefs +1
Chicago Bears -1
Here's two teams known for offense that will be depending on DEFENSE to live their Super Bowl dreams this year. More important factor, I’m counting on Global Warming to hit exactly on game day, delivering a potential windy snowstorm to Soldier Field or possibly 8-degree temperatures. No specific scientific data behind this theory, but if you’re going to be dumb enough to wager these awful futures, could debaters come up with better reasoning? Remember, if it happens, and the game goes UNDER 51, I’m the one who told you so. Predicted Over - Under Total that game day under those football and weather conditions 42.5.
Limited Risk, Limited Opportunity
Most noteworthy is that CG Technology is limiting their game lines to very modest amounts for their affiliated books in Nevada. Almost certainly expect this caveat to take place if these NFL future game bets are adopted in New Jersey or other new U.S. regulated gaming states.
At this juncture, it’s more noticeable to observe that none of the top or top online sportsbooks have put out lines for the ENTIRE NFL game season, though top rated BetOnline has cherry-picked some MNF and marquee games throughout the season. And they say, the line tells you something. Often, so, so true. In this case, it tells you there should be no advance weekly lines. Thus far the offshore books are screaming they don’t want to accept such an overall foolish risk and they don’t want to encourage their bettor clients to waste their funds. And this from companies that are currently putting up daily odds on events like cricket, darts and snooker.
Just not five months away.
Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, including previews and picks from Glenn, click here.