Preakness Stakes Matchups Preview -- In Wide-Open Field, Who Can Surprise?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, May 18th, 2019 4:26:08 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


They won't have Maximum Security or Country House there, but the Preakness will move forward with some "new shooters" on Saturday at Pimlico.

The Preakness Stakes may have lost a little luster, because of the fact that the rematch between Maximum Security and Country House is not going to take place, so it's somewhat anti-climactic. Still, there is a wide-open nature to this race that is somewhat attractive and intriguing for the handicapper.

It's set for 6:48 PM ET at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, where the latest weather report indicates that the conditions will be agreeable. The coverage is provided by NBC. And BetAnySports not only has the race - as well as all the races from the nation's leading tracks - listed on the menu at the racebook (read more about that at the bottom), but they have head-to-head matchups that you can't play at the track itself.

Let's analyze some of them:


IMPROBABLE -170
ANOTHERTWISTAFATE +150

Improbable is likely going to be the favorite in this race when the gate opens, and since the forecast for Pimlico calls for only a slight chance of rain, Bob Baffert's charge will be spared the kind of sloppy track he was presumably disadvantaged by in the Kentucky Derby. That was the only time he's been lower than second place. Improbable is winless this year, but lost only by a length against Omaha Beach (who would have been the Derby favorite) at Oaklawn.

This may be too big a price to give to Anothertwistafate, which has made a successful transition from synthetic surfaces to the dirt, and has been nicely consistent with his efforts over these last three races, which coincidentally has happened as he's started to go around two turns. Here's a horse who has won from out front, and also from off the pace. Sire Scat Daddy counts Triple Crown winner Justify among his offspring. Might have overtaken Owendale in Sunland Derby with the slightest break. Let's take this price.


OWENDALE -150
WARRIOR'S CHARGE +130

Is Ownedale the best horse in this race? Well, a case could be made in this wide-open field, inasmuch as he came motoring back after a disastrous Risen Star stakes effort, then took control in the Grade 3 Lexington. But as we stated above, he could have been a bit fortunate that Anothertwistafate got boxed in and wasn't able to move when he wanted to. Nonetheless, Owendale hung a Beyer of 98 up there, and there's some buzz about his works.

In Warrior's Charge, we have an interesting proposition, because this is a colt that has never been in a stakes race of any kind, and seems to be bred for sprinting. He will also be extended beyond any distance he has gone before. But the connections have supplemented him into this race for $150,000, so they are seeing something. Maybe it's the fact that since they have allowed to him to open things up and run on the lead, they've seen great results, and around two turns to boot. The last effort produced a Beyer Speed Figure of 97. As we do not have Maximum Security, Country House or Code of Honor in this race, it's more wide-open than usual. And so the prospect of having a horse with a lot of speed who has suddenly turned things around with a tactical change brings up the proposition that he have some undiscovered upside to explore. In a field where most of the contenders are limited to some extent, that kind of potential could go a long way.


BOURBON WAR -165
WIN WIN WIN +145

Bourbon War is going out for the first time with blinkers, but that won't necessarily make him faster. This is a closer, and we're not sure there is going to be enough pace up front to maximize his ability to make a late run. Was second in the Fountain of Youth, aided by blistering fractions. But the top Beyer figure is 93. Is that fast enough? This horse is being touted as a bigger possibility for the Belmont.

Win Win Win is a worthy underdog here; we don't necessarily want to hold the Kentucky Derby effort against him. Every other outing was commendable, and one of those was a Tampa Bay track record in the Pasco. He runs late too; there's no reason he shouldn't be able to get the distance. There's a lot of life in this underdog.


SIGNALMAN -175
MARKET KING +155

Market King, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, is likely going after the lead early, but will fade at some point. In the two stakes races he's participated in, he's lost by 8-1/4 and 37 lengths. With a top Beyer figure of 83, this horse is a long way from contention.

Signalman is not very highly regarded here, but the credentials outdistance Market King by a mile. Yes, the top Beyer is 88, which is poor, but this is the top money earner in the field. He's been on the board in six of seven races, with third place in both the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Blue Grass Stakes, not to mention a win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. We'll gladly lay the price.


BODEXPRESS -135
LAUGHING FOX +115

Bodexpress is still a maiden, but grabbed second place as a huge longshot in the Florida Derby - the first time around two turns. John Velasquez rides, and that is a vote of confidence, and remember that the sire is Bodemeister, who was second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Laughing Fox will be looking to close, but maybe the setup for this race won't allow such a thing to happen. We just don't know if this horse is quick enough to get this done. Bodexpress may even run better late, so we'll lay the price.

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