Preview and pick for Super Bowl 57
Now that 30 plus states have legalized sports betting, the Super Bowl has engulfed the public like never before. It seems everyone knows (or thinks they know) the winner. SBLVII has been so hyped up the public expects fireworks from the opening kick.
From our perspective, we see two games being played this coming Sunday. One game is on the side lines between two savvy head coaches and the other is on the field between the Chiefs and Eagles top tier players. Of all the games since the Hall of Fame Game back in August 2022, this Super Bowl is the one game to place a simple wager and NOT a large bet. This is ONLY a game to watch and root for your favorite team, both of which happen to be the very best from the 2022 season. It’s worth noting this as Kansas City and Philadelphia both won their respective conference titles and earned the coveted bye week between the end of the regular season and the start of divisional playoffs.
Overall, the Eagles have a better team. However, do they have the QB that measures up to 2022 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes? No, they do not. Is Kansas City leader Andy Reid the better Head Coach? Yes, he is. Is KC’s tight end (and future HOFer) Travis Kelce the better TE in this game? Yes, he is.
Let's look at each team's points gained and given up in the 2022 season.
The Chiefs scored 496 points in the regular season. The Eagles scored 477.
The Chiefs gave up 369 points in the regular season. The Eagles gave up 344.
Despite this, sportsbooks have the Eagles favored to win by 2 points. Why?
Both teams have strong running backs and will try to establish a "run first, then throw" offense. The Chiefs just got back a now recovered Clyde Edwards-Helaire and is sure to pair him with Isiah Pacheco in the back field. If the Chiefs' OL plays to their potential, KC will run the ball and win.
On the other hand, the Eagles are loaded. Their defense matches up well against the Chiefs' offense, with a line built to rush the passer. Philadelphia's linebackers and corners on defense play hard and tight. The only weakness we saw in them this season was how they reacted against the run.
On offense, Jalen Hurts can pass from the pocket, on the run, and, if all else fails, he runs like the wind. Once he takes off, his runs can quickly turn into game winning plays. Miles Sanders, the other speed demon in the back field who hits the hole with the best of them. He averages close to five yards a carry will have to be stopped. Looking at his fellow offensive weapons, wide receivers DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, it's hard to bet against the Birds.
At 6’1’’ and 226 lbs., A.J. Brown is a problem for Kansas City. He has the height, speed, quick hands, and knows how to get open. Last year, he was the most dangerous WR in Tennessee. This year, he is the perfect fit for this championship team. He was incredible this past year, catching 88 passes and receiving over 1,496 yards. Add in his 11 TDs and average of 17 yards per catch, it’s easy to see why A.J. Brown is one of, if not, the most dangerous players on the field.
After all is said and done, these players still make mistakes. The Chiefs had 87 penalties compared to the Eagles 90. Philadelphia does have a tendency to jump offside. For us here at PFWW, we see the Eagles as the better team and the Chiefs as the team with more players who know how to win. In the 2022 regular season, the Eagles played against four of the playoff teams (the Vikings, Jaguars, Giants, and Cowboys) and gave up a total of 101 points. The Chiefs played against seven playoff teams (the Buccaneers, Chargers, Bills, 49ers, Jaguars, Bengals and Seahawks) and gave up 156 points.
These numbers tell us, KC give up an average of 22 points compared to the 25 points a game given up by Philadelphia. The numbers show exactly how close these two teams really are.
Before making our pick on the game, it should be noted that Andy Reid was kicked out of Philadelphia when his experiment with Michael Vick at QB failed. Someone had to take the blame, and Andy was asked to leave.
This game will be a close one. That said, we are going with Andy, and a quiet chip on his shoulder, Patrick, and the rest of the KC Chiefs plus the 2 points.
As always, we analyze games and pick winners for the entirety of the NFL season. Our write-ups can be found both on OSGA and on our website, www.pfww.vegas. Come to our site and check out all our articles and postings from 2016 to the present. If you like what you see, register to receive weekly updates of our newest blog called, Our Take on the NFL.