Pro Basketball Picks -- Heat aims to snuff out Spurs' offense in rematch

  • In Charles Jay
  • Wed, Apr 28th, 2021 6:03:52 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The San Antonio Spurs will pay a visit to the Miami Heat in a game between teams fighting for playoff berths on Wednesday night.


The Miami Heat (32-30 SU, 27-35 ATS) have been through a trying year. They were supposed to be taking the next step after winning the Eastern Conference title last season. And they also added Victor Oladipo to the roster during the regular season.

But Oladipo has only been able to play four games. And Miami has not been able to get the same fire they got from some of their key performers in the playoffs. Can they turn things around quickly, in time to make another run?

We're not certain, but they are in the middle of trying to get some favorable placement in the post-season queue. We'll see what happens against the San Antonio Spurs (31-29 SU, 38-26-1 ATS), who are a very real possibility to be in the "play-in" tournament that is a new part of the NBA playoff format.

The Heat and Spurs meet on Wednesday night at the American Airlines Arena. Game time is 8:10 PM ET, and at BetAnySports, you'll be able to get reduced juice for better odds, in addition to real-time wagering after the opening tip with Sports Betting Prime.

Here are their NBA betting odds on the game:

Miami Heat -5
San Antonio Spurs +5

Over 210.5 Points -110
Under 210.5 Points -110

Oladipo sits out again with a knee problem, and the team hopes that he can be fresh enough and healthy enough to help out in the playoffs. Meanwhile, there are a number of other players who are listed as questionable, including Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, who had to be removed from a loss to Chicago the other night with an illness.

The Spurs come off a wild 146-143 overtime win over Washington, in which they committed only six turnovers. That's nothing unusual for this club, which is second best in the league in that category.

But what is really notable is that no one in San Antonio's starting lineup made a three-pointer. That simply isn't this team's game. What they want to do is get mid-range shots, and DeMar DeRozan is a pretty good example of that.

So it would stand to reason that if you could take them out of their desired offensive game, you can extract a matchup advantage. And the Heat have the kind of defensive scheme that can make San Antonio take a turn they don't want to.

Miami does a good job of closing passing lanes and making it difficult to shoot from mid-range. Bam Adebayo, for example, is a player who can switch and guard against almost anybody.

The Heat have forced their opponents into the second-most attempted threes,and the fewest two-point attempts,of any team in the NBA. And maybe that's not such good news for the Spurs, who are first in in the NBA in two-point shots.

That played itself out in their previous meeting just a week ago. What happened is that a team (San Antonio) that takes 68% of its shots inside the arc saw that percentage go to 54.5%. So they were completely out of their game. Miami held them to 34 points in the second half and rolled to a 107-87 victory.

So you have to concede the possibility that this is just a bad matchup for the Spurs. That's what we're banking on when we lay the points with the home team.

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