Sunday Night Football Betting -- Broncos Aim to Keep Mahomes, Chiefs Off-Balance

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Dec 4th, 2021 10:41:02 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take a four-game winning streak into Sunday night's game against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium.


The Kansas City Chiefs have been looking better lately, although that doesn't mean they've been looking like themselves. They are indeed the first place team in the AFC West, with a chance to end up as the #1 seed, and that is quite the accomplishment, considering some of the disappointing performances they have turned in.

BetAnySports patrons have seen that Patrick Mahomes has really struggled at times, and has registered a quarterback rating over 100 just once in the last seven games. And on Sunday night he'll engage in the first of two meetings with the Denver Broncos, in the NBC game that is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium.

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Kansas City lost three of its first five games, and it is probably worth mentioning that those defeats took place at the hands of the Ravens, Chargers and Bills, all of who are right in the middle fo the playoff picture. A subsequent loss came against Tennessee, which is still in the running to be the #1 AFC seed as well.

The Broncos have been up-and-down, at best. They came out quick, with a 3-0 record, and the defense had given up 665 yards. But those games came against the likes of the Giants, Jaguars and Jets, who are more orless moribund offensively.

Since then they have surrendered at least 350 yards in six of eight, losing five of those. But they have also posted soime great defensive efforts, including one against the Dallas Cowboys, who they had shut out until 4:08 left just a month ago.

In the Sunday Night Football betting odds posted at BetAnySports, the Chiefs are the considerable favorites:

Kansas City Chiefs -9 (-104)
Denver Broncos +9 (-116)

Over 46.5 points -105
Under 46.5 points -115

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With four consecutive victories, the Chiefs are considered to be a team with a lot of forward momentum. Two games ago, Mahomes had 406 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-14 rout of what seemed like an indifferent Raider team. KC has also beaten Green Bay (without Aaron Rodgers) and Dallas (WITH Dak Prescott) in this four-game streak. But they have topped 20 points just once in their last five outings.

The other side of that coin is that the defense, which was much maligned and spent some time giving up the most yards per drive in the NFL, has made some strides under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, allowing 47 points in he last four. In the first five games, KC allowed 437 yards per game. In the last six, they've surrendered only 303.5 per contest.

That looks like vast improvement.

It is likely not going to be a cakewalk for Mahomes against the kindof defense employed by Denver head coach Vic Fangio, who is known as a "guru" for this kind of thing around the NFL. Fangio's scheme is designed to take away explosive plays on the part of the opposing passing game, and in the case of the Chiefs that is especially important.

In the first meeting between the teams last year, KC won 43-16, but that was because they were the benficiary of four Denver turnovers. Mahomes had just 200 yards, and only two of his pass plays went for 20 or more yards. The second time, the Chiefs scored only 22 points in a six-point victory.

So what will likely happen here is that Kansas City will have to work its way down the field with short and medium-range pass plays, which takes up more time on the clock. And speaking of that, Denver ranks seventh in the NFL in time of possession. They take more time between plays than all but two teams. And they are dedicating themselves to running the ball lately (49% of calls over the last three), and why not, as they have an emerging rookie in Javionte Williams, who has the most forced missed tackles of anyone in the league (35) and will carry the load in the absence of Melvin Gordon.

Looking for trends? the Chiefs have played five of their last six games under the total, while Denver has played nine unders in eleven games this season. So which way do you think we'll be going here?

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