General guidelines for Super Bowl Prop betting
Sports betting is rising quickly in mega popularity within our culture and thus massive prop betting on SBLVII is front and center for bettors on Super Bowl Sunday. How boring to wait three and half hours for simply one or two ways to collect or lose your dough when you now have seemingly unlimited possibilities at your fingertips to wager on.
However, be ever so careful in your pursuit of collecting on 'the game within the game'. The Super Bowl final score and total points lines are offered at the customary -110 or 10% commission to the bookmaker, exactly as any other game during the NFL season. What differentiates prop wagering is the house opportunity to set "Man Made odds", an extremely important distinction that a player must be observant to notice. What the bookmaker will argue is while they can hope or adjust for balanced action on the final score and total points, it is virtually impossible to anticipate even action on props. Another factor is the reduced amount of money wagered per prop compared to the multi-millions wagered on the traditional game line and total as the player's primary focus.
By defining "man made", we explain the sportsbook has liberty to set whatever odds they feel the public will accept purchase. The true/actual odds of the occurrence are far different than they are willing to post. For example, the line listed for this year's Super Bowl of whether the First Score in Arizona will be a Touchdown (not a Field Goal or Safety) is -201 or $201 to win $100 at industry leading sportsbook BetOnline. The line against is +140 or $100 to win $140. The bookmaker knowing the money will likely favor Touchdown already puts them at an advantage. Expect the line to move higher toward gameday. The spread (vigorish) between -201 and +140 (61 cents) is a extremely high and may move toward 70 cents, an uncommon and typical advantage the book enjoys in proposition wagering.
OK, you've got the basic understanding why Mr. Bookmaker salivates come Super Bowl Sunday. That's not to say you can't uncover some ample proposition opportunities to cash in on. Through experience, rule changes, hard work, several celebrations and a few spankings, the following are some fundamental rules and opportunity plays to look for when the Eagles line up on Super Bowl Sunday against the Chiefs:
1. Have a proposition game plan. The critical facet is to stick to it, not getting swayed with emotion through good fortune by pressing your luck early or pressing too hard to get even late. Isolate the best opportunities well before the game begins by reviewing the odds, your bankroll and designating your funding assigned to the best particular plays.
2. Limit your plays. Do not feel the need to have action continuously during the game, eliminating the basic enjoyment of the contest. Odds are (pun intended) your highest investment will be on the final spread or over/under, therefore you don't want to be caught counting Miles Sander's yards in the 2nd quarter, charting 1st downs or sweating the points scored in the 3rd quarter.
3. Have some reason for your investment! Please, no need to bet on the coin flip, which coach will throw the first challenge flag, color of the Gatorade at the end of the game, etc. Life is unpredictable enough. You'll notice again the odds maker will force you to pay -120, -140 or greater instead of the traditional -110 often for the right to being clairvoyant. Concentrate on proposition plays that have some handicapping thought, history and purpose behind them.
4. Watch Rhianna, but check the lines during halftime. Most everyone watches the halftime show of the Super Bowl as the biggest stars in the world strive to put on a huge show for just a few minutes. And, of course, you can bet on the halftime show. Before betting on Rhianna's performance, remember that it's been six years since the nine-time Grammy-winner dropped an album! However, there may be more wagering opportunities for the actual game - think second half. Take the halftime to show to explore a wager or two for team or combined scoring depending on what occurred in the 1st half of the game. If you happen to wager with a reputable online sportsbook, a great deal of money flows in that can often be exploited in your favor. HINT: if you're wagering under 2nd half, wait until the last possible moment before the 3rd quarter commences.
5. Props to consider. Sadly, the best proposition bet has been discovered and priced perhaps out of the market. Wagering on a team to score in the last 2 minutes of the first half is a very high probability in any NFL game and a near certainty in a playoff game due to an important momentum incentive, the timeouts, the rules and likelihood of a reasonably close score at that juncture. Years ago this prop was -150, where now it is priced at -300 or higher, if you can find it. And, only bet on props that are aligned with your vision of the game. Cor example, if you think the Chiefs are going to win, don't wager on Jalen Hurts over 237.5 yards.
6. Early bird catches the worm and value. Keep your eye on where the early money, mainly from sharper bettors, is going. Each sportsbook will adjust pricing for money coming in and will likely keep their eye on money flowing in early on prop wagering at other books. Though they largely limit action, you'd be surprised how many clever bettors take early advantage of the numbers.
Player propositions are similar to coin flips due to the evolving nature of the game, but at least they are something that can be researched. Believe me, Patrick Mahomes would sleep well on Monday throwing for only 175 yards with no interceptions and no touchdowns in a 24-7 win. What good are the Eagles going over 2.5 sacks with no purpose? Predicting who scores the first touchdown can be examined, but in reality, it is not an easy prop to predict and wagering dollars should be spent accordingly.
Overall, isolate lower risk, lower return props with value and shoot for the moon with one or two crazy "lottery odds" props if you must. Losing an disproportionate amount of your bankroll on high odds (-) Super Bowl props can potentially distort your pleasure watching the game early-on and affect your judgment.
Remember, if you're awaiting the big meal there's no need ordering several appetizers to spoil the enjoyment and savor the experience. Proposition wagers are there to enhance the overall experience, not replace it. Funny thing about these prop bets, if you hit them you feel brilliant, when you lose you ask yourself "what was I thinking"? Whatever the outcome, the proposition lock I'm offering is that you'll be watching every play with your mind on nothing else. Enjoy.