Preview, predictions and player performances for the 123rd U.S. Open
It's time to tee it up and bet on America's championship at the U.S. Open. It's California dreamin' this week for the top pros as Los Angeles Country Club hosts the golf event with it's unique setup featuring three Par 5's and five Par 3's including two daunting Par 3 holes measuring more than 275 yards. In total, the golfers will be shooting for Par 70 or better on the 7,421 yard course.
Check out the hole-by-hole flyover of the course, and betting promotions and options at leading online sportsbooks, including perks and props at BetAnySports.
Note: Player profiles and stats will continue to be updated leading into the tournament.
Profile of a U.S. Open Winner
Each of the last 10 U.S. Open winners were inside the top-30 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR), and six won America's championship while sitting inside the top-10. Those trends need to note LIV Golfers not being able to accumulate OWGR points except in majors. Note that LIV Golfer Brooks Koepka is a 2-time U.S. Open champion (2017, 2018) who has +1091 odds to win (11/1). Fellow LIV Golfers Cameron Smith (+2250) and 2016 U.S. Open winner Dustin Johnson (+4910) are also major contenders.
In addition, each of the 10 most recent champions had previously finished in the top-25 of the U.S. Open. Of course, major longshot Lucas Glover won in 2009 after going through sectional qualifying to get into the U.S. Open field providing big longshot hunters hope.
I'll limit some of the insight and analysis below as some of the top-30 players in the OWGR have not posted a top-25 in the U.S. Open. As tee time approaches, I'm firing this update but may add additional stats, so check back later Wednesday for bonus bets before finalizing your U.S. Open win wagers and golf portfolio.
U.S. Open courses
2023 - Los Angeles Country Club
2022 - The Country Club Brookline
2021 - Torrey Pines
2020 - Winged Foot
2019 - Pebble Beach
2018 - Shinnecock
2017 - Erin Hills
2016 - Oakmont
2015 - Chambers Bay
2014 - Pinehurst
2024 U.S. Open is at Pinehurst and 2025 at Oakmont for a record 10th time.
Here are the top 30 players in the OWGR and their odds to win, courtesy of top online sportsbook Bookmaker, which offers best odds and more major matchups. Strokes Gained stats are for last 50 rounds unless noted.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+628) - Best U.S. Open finishes in five starts is T2 in 2022. The 26-year-old also finished T7 in 2021. Elite strokes gained stats show Scheffler ranks No. 1 in SG: Total, Tee-to-Green, Ball Striking, Approach and Around the Green. His putting (96) has been holding him back from more wins, but that is a problem at the U.S. Open if his flat stick is not sharp.
2. Jon Rahm (+1005) - 2021 U.S. Open winner became the first player from Spain to win any USGA championship. The 28-year-old T12 in 2022 and T3 in 2019. Putting is top-tier but not quite as good on bentgrass. But those courses show top-10 stats or better in T2G, BS, OTT and Approach.
3. Rory McIlroy (+1120) - 2011 U.S. Open winner at Congressional. The 34-year-old has finished top-10 in each of the past four U.S. Opens. No. 2 in SG: Tee-to-Green, Ball Striking and top-12 in Approach, Around the Green, OTT and Total. His odds to win drifted up to +1500, but leading online sportsbooks have dropped him down.
4. Patrick Cantlay (+1533) - Player of the Year on Tour in 2020-21 and still elevating his game. California 31-year-old UCLA golfer now lives in Florida. But his game travels just not yet a major winner. Cantlay T14 last year and T15 in 2021 U.S. Open his best finishes in seven starts. No. 1 on Tour in SG: Total, Short Game and Putting, No. 2 T2G and top-6 in Ball Striking, OTT and Around the Green on courses with bentgrass greens.
5. Viktor Hovland (+1859) - Hottest player in golf off his Memorial win and T2 at the PGA Championship. Bentgrass greens not his best as the 25-year-old Norwegian shoots for his first major. Hovland missed the cut the last two years but finished T13 in 2020 and T12 in 2019.
6. Xander Schauffele (+1658) - Still shooting for his first major, but the San Diego native has the best U.S. Open profile and results of any non-U.S. Open winner. Five-straight top-7 finishes until T14 last year for the now Las Vegas-based pro. Schauffele's elite ball striking shows that he's gained more than 33 strokes over his last five tournaments. He also ranks top-10 in SG: Total, T2G, BS and Approach on bentgrass where he's top-20 in Putting. No. 2 in Greens in Regulation Gained and top-15 in Fairways Gained with solid enough Proximity stats.
7. Max Homa (+2864) - Three missed cuts and a best T47 last year at the U.S. Open for the Valencia native and Cal-Berkeley star. Six PGA Tour wins, excels in California but no major wins yet.
8. Matt Fitzpatrick (+3595) - The 2022 U.S. Open champion had two other T12 finishes before winning his firs major last year. Winner at Harbour Town this year and T9 at Memorial, Jack's Place. Bentgrass is not his preferred putting surface, and his accuracy numbers not strong enough. Missed cuts this year at PGA Championship, PLAYERS Championship and Riviera (Genesis) don't offer support.
9. Cameron Smith (+2050) - LIV Golfer missed the cut at last year's U.S. Open and then won the British Open. Finished top-10 at last month's PGA Championship.
10. Jordan Spieth (+2512) - Won the 2015 U.S. Open when DJ three putted from 12 feet on the 72nd hole. Spieth is playing in his 12th U.S. Open at the age of 29 with a T19 his best finish since winning. His game looks like a good fit here, and Spieth has six top-6 finishes in his last 11 events. Solid Par 4 efficiency stats and No. 2 in Around the Green, top-10 in Short Game and SG: Total. Finished 5th last out at the Memorial, and only his sub-par Putting has let him down since May. Recall, Spieth had three straight top-5 finishes in March and April including at The Masters on bentgrass greens.
11. Will Zalatoris - Out for rest of 2023 season following back surgery in May.
12. Tony Finau (+3798) - Top-5 in Tee-to-Green and Approach play. Since holding off Jon Rahm and winning the Mexico Open to close April, Finau has just one top-25 in three starts. The 33-year-olds best U.S. Open finish is 5th in 2018, and he's missed the cut in 4-of-7 starts.
13. Brooks Koepka (+1091) - LIV Golfer is a two-time U.S. Open Champion (2017, 2018), but finished T55 last year. Major form and top finishes include 2nd at this year's Masters followed by winning last month's PGA Championship.
14. Tyrrell Hatton (+3768) - The 31-year-old Englishman finished T6 in the 2018 U.S. Open for his best finish, and T21 the following year at nearby Pebble Beach. Pretty solid stats across the board with strength in Short Game and Putting. Excellent sand player, good long irons in Proximity and very solid Par 4 efficiency stats from 400-500 yards. Playing elite golf since start of May with three top-5 finishes plus two other top-15s.
15. Sam Burns (+6078) - Other than a sharp Short Game and Putting, Burns' stats are very sub-par. He's missed the cut in 2-of-4 starts with best finish of T27 last year while finishing +5. Burns is outside the top-75 in Good Drives Gained, Fairways Gained and GIR Gained which would suggest significant struggles if that continues at the U.S. Open.
16. Justin Thomas (+4750) - Have you ever seen Thomas priced in this range the past 5-6 years? He missed the cut at The Masters and Memorial and finished T65 at The Players Championship. Par 4 efficiency is off-course, and Thomas has lost strokes putting in 7-of-8 events entering the most challenging U.S. Open.
17. Cameron Young (+4069) - Terrible form and stats for Young since finishing 7th at The Masters. Young has since missed two cuts with no top-50 finishes. Last year's PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is having putting problems but also struggling in Good Drives and Fairways Gained and GIR Gained. He's also missed the cut in all three of his U.S. Open starts.
18. Collin Morikawa (+3065) - The two-time major winner has been quiet this year, and perhaps being back in California will bring his poor Putting and Short Game alive. The former Cal Berkeley star ranks top-5 in Approach stats and top-15 T2G and Ball Striking. Add in elite Fairways Gained, GIR Gained and Good Drives Gained and it's a bit surprising Morikawa isn't being mentioned more as a major contender this week. He finished top-10 at The Masters, Players Championship but has Genesis at Riviera, but he's not finished in the top-25 since The Masters. Seems like his game is a fit and more evaluation leading into Thursday's tee times.
19. Sungjae Im (+5074) - The 25-year-old South Korean is playing in his fifth U.S. Open with a best finish of T22 in 2020. But he's another player with strong Fairways Gained, GIR Gained and Good Drives Gained. I can overlook his two missed cuts recently including the PGA Championship. As Sungjae was striping it in March and April with three top-10s plus T16 at The Masters. His superior long-iron game, strong tee-ball accuracy and top-tier Around the Green game make him a viable longshot contender.
20. Kurt Kitayama (+18635) - The 30-year-old Chico, CA native now living in Las Vegas has missed the cut in his two U.S. Open appearances. Kitayama hit the jackpot earlier this year winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But he's been dreadful since with five missed cuts and poor play with Short Game and Putting stats his worst.
21. Tommy Fleetwood (+5315) - The affable Englishman with flowing flocks just missed his first PGA Tour win last week losing in a playoff at the Canadian Open. I've been riding Tommy Boy, and he's been playing very well. A pair of top-5 finishes at the U.S. Open in 2017 and 2018 includes a T2. But he's not cracked the top-50 since, until this week at LA Country Club. Darkhorse contender to consider with solid Short Game and Putting to lean on.
22. Tom Kim (+15320) - The 20-year-old Korean has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the game since tying for 23rd in his U.S. Open debut last June.
23. Jason Day (+5576) - The 35-year-old has three top-5's and a pair of top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open, but none since 2016. Still, he's having his finest season on Tour in five years. He's missed three cuts in his last four events but did win the Byron Nelson and was rolling well early in the year with four top-10s. His stats don't stand out, and his recent form is a concern entering the most demanding tournament of the year.
24. Keegan Bradley (+9050) - Bradley's best U.S. Open finish is T4 in 2014. He's made the cut in 5-of-10 starts. The 37-year-old is very efficient on Par 4s longer than 450 yards. Nothing stands out in his SG profile with 30th to 60th stats rankings nearly across the board. No top-25 finishes in his last six Tour starts over the past three months.
25. Justin Rose (+5476) - The 2013 U.S. Open winner at Merion with three other top-12 finishes including T3 at Pebble Beach. The 42-year-old Englishman has very solid Proximity stats from 175-200 yards and beyond, along with Good Drive's Gained and Greens in Regulation Gained. A solid stats profile across the board, and Rose has a reinvigorated game this year winning at Pebble Beach, 6th at The PLAYERS and top-12 in his last three events including the PGA Championship with strong Putting, Approach and Tee-to-Green game.
26. Hideki Matsuyama (+4571) - Six top 10s in ten U.S. Open starts includes T2 in 2017 and 4th last year. Why is the 31-year-old Japanese star priced outside 30/1? Finished T5 at The PLAYERS Championship with three other top-16 finishes since. Bentgrass greens not his best, but Hideki has strong T2G and Approach play stats and did win The Masters on bentgrass when his putting was worse.
27. Shane Lowry (+6250) - Ten U.S. Open appearances with two top-10s including a runner-up finish in 2016. Like Corey Conners below, Lowry hits excellent long irons with very solid Proximity to the hole stats from 175+ yards and longer. Putting and Short Game have been the problem ranking outside the top-100.
28. Sahith Theegala (+12608) - Two missed cuts in two U.S. Open appearances. Still, California kid is a popular pick and dark horse for many in the media. But I'm not buying it and neither should you, Bro.
29. Corey Conners (+9050) - Four missed cuts in four U.S. Open starts. Still like his accuracy, and enough in his stats profile to support. The 31-year-old Canadian is also top-5 in Good Drives Gained, Fairways Gained and Greens in Regulation Gained which is ideal for a U.S. Open. Combined 175-200 and 200+ yards iron play show Conners is among the leaders in Proximity to the hole.
30. Russell Henley (+13613) - T13 in 2021 best in nine career U.S. Opens. Poor Putting and Short Game outside the top-90 in each including on bentgrass. But No. 1 in Approach on bentgrass courses and top-10 in Tee-to-Green and Ball Striking.
Leading online sportsbook BetMGM passed along the following betting data as of Wednesday heading into Thursday's opening round.
Line Movement (opening, current)
Scottie Scheffler +1200, +700
Brooks Koepka +3300, +1100
Viktor Hovland +3000, +1600
Max Homa +5000, +2800
Max Homa 9.4%
Scottie Scheffler 7.7%
Brooks Koepka 7.5%
Brooks Koepka 13.0%
Max Homa 11.7%
Scottie Scheffler 10.7%
US Open Odds To Win— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) June 13, 2023
Top 5 Bet Count
1. Viktor Hovland 18-1
2. Brooks Koepka 13-1
3. Max Homa 28-1
4. Cam Smith 28-1
5. Jordan Spieth 25-1
Top 5 Liabilities
2. Scott Scheffler 13-2
3. Sepp Straka 250-1
4. Phil Mickelson 275-1
5. Jon Rahm 10-1
Also, top online sportsbook BetOnline has some added props and unique ones, plus a winning over/under score of 265.5 (-15.5).
Highest Round 1 score
Highest 18-hole score in any round
Most strokes recorded on any hole
Over/Under 9.5 strokes
Lowest Round 1 Score
Over/Under 64.5 strokes
Lowest 18-hole score in any round
Over/Under 64.5 Strokes
Largest front-9-to-back-9 differential for any player
Over/Under 8.5 strokes
How many players will finish under par?
Over/Under 143.5 strokes
Length of winner's final shot
Over/Under 3 feet
What type of putter will be used by winner?
Blade -400, Mallet +250
U.S. Open Tournament Match-ups and Picks to Win
Regarding outright strategy, I don't bet golfers to win at low odds pre-tournament like Scheffler, but plenty of media and other 'experts' will make the case and say these are fair odds and can support. Ugh. Perhaps in the adjusted odds market during the tournament, as that's often a better way to approach your golf win wagers. After all, Viktor Hovland rallied to win the recent Memorial Tournament, and Emiliano Grillo was 20/1 into the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge before winning and he was also one of the leaders into the weekend.
I'll pass on the three favorites, but add Rahm over Scheffler in tournament match-up with full disclosure that I've lost my fair share betting against Scheffler.
Fairway's Favorites to win and top finishing position bets to consider include:
- Favorites: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton
- Longshots - Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners
With past success in tournament match-ups and far more favorable odds to cash in for profit, I'll chip-in these tournament match-ups for the 2023 U.S. Open.
- Corey Conners (+100) over Sam Burns (FanDuel)
- Xander Schauffele (-115) over Viktor Hovland (FanDuel)
- Jon Rahm (+121) over Scottie Scheffler (BookMaker)
- Rory McIlroy (+140) over Scottie Scheffler (BetMGM)
Enjoy the U.S. Open as you shoot for more Birdies and Green, and stay on Course.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper including in golf. He's recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.