2024 Presidential Election -- Any Trump-related surprises in New Hampshire?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Tue, Jan 23rd, 2024 4:46:10 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA

Donald Trump essentially has only Nikki Haley to compete with in New Hampshire, while Joe Biden has to fight it out through a write-in campaign.

Well, Donald Trump did not disappoint those who were looking for a decisive win from him in the Iowa Caucuses. With 51%, he reaffirmed his position as the clear front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. And he is also expected to win the GOP primary that takes place on Tuesday night.

Trump comes into the proceedings with a 22-point lead in the latest Boston Globe poll, with Nikki Haley coming second. The former South Carolina governor and (Trump-appointed) Ambassador to the United Nations was predicting that once the campaign left Iowa, this was going to be a two-horse race.

And it is, even though it's not necessarily a reflection of her own strength. On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Vivek Ramaswamy, who got a little less than 8% of the vote, dropped out of the running. He endorsed Trump, which was not surprise, inasmuch as he had sounded like a supporter of Trump all the way through the process. Perhaps he is hoping for some Cabinet post, like Ben Carson, another contender without political experience, got when he left the 2016 race and endorsed The Donald.

In the latest numbers posted at BetOnline, these are the odds on prospective victory margins for Trump in New Hampshire:

15% or More -150
12.00-14.99% +300
9.00-11.99% +600
None (Lose) +900
6.00-8.99% +1400
0-2.99% +2000 +2000

There were some people who were surprised that, after beating Haley by two points in Iowa, Ron DeSantis picked up and left the race on the eve of New Hampshire. He was not expected to compete in the state, but some had expected him to launch a big effort, and stay involved at least through Super Tuesday.

But it's tough to raise money without a realistic chance of winning. And truth be told, he thought he'd do better than to lose by 30 points to Trump in Iowa. There were almost no resources devoted to the primary in New Hampshire.

He had been polling at between 8% and 10% in the Granite State, and he does remain on the ballot. So there is an interesting proposition as to what his share of votes is going to be. At BetOnline, he is -130 to go below 6.5% (-110 to go over). Will people run from him as he runs from the race?

Things were looking bright for DeSantis when he first decided to get involved in the Republican presidential process, and even prior to that. In fact, he was considered to be a legitimate challenge to Trump. But then Trump got indicted, which was just the kind of thing to rally his supporters. The "Us vs. Them" theme was too much for potential contenders to deal with, and the former President broke out to a lead and extended it.

Haley was listed at +900 to win the primary. She was polling at about 36%. How long she is willing to stay in the game remains to be seen. In the latest Emerson poll, she is behind Trump by 29 points (54%-25%) in her own home state.

There are some factors that make polling a little trickier than normal; namely that Democrats can cross over and vote in the GOP primary. And there is not a whole lot of action on the Democratic side. Joe Biden had directed the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to make South Carolina the first primary, which New Hampshire - by law,as it turns out - cannot stand for. So the party organization in that state chose to have an unsanctioned primary, which Biden can't really bye a part of.

With his approval ratings dwindling, however, Biden backers have rushed to launch a write-in campaign in an effort to beat out people like Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips, a Congressman from Minnesota, along with a bunch of other names.

At BetOnline he is a -120 favorite to garner 61.5% of the votes through write-ins.

If and when Haley drops out, it will be the end of the line for her (particularly for her vehement opposition to Trump) but it won't be the end of the story for women on the GOP ticket. South Dakota governor Kristi Noem is the +400 favorite to be Trump's running mate, and next in line (at +475) is upstate New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who gained a lot of notoriety for the way she grilled the three Ivy League university presidents (two of whom have since resigned) for their non-action regarding violent anti-Semitic rhetoric on campus.

You will absolutely not believe all the political props that are available at BetOnline........ Check it all out in the sportsbook menu, and if you're not on board with us, it's easy - just use your credit card or any of sixteen different cryptocurrency options, including Bitcoin!

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