AFC Championship Props -- QB Figures... And How Much Do the QBs Figure? Know What We Mean?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 24th, 2021 3:13:08 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA

How much can we expect Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to throw for in the AFC Championship Game? That's just one of the questions we explore as we take a look at the BetOnline props.

If you are a BetOnline customer, you have probably already discovered that you can find literally tons of props available to wager on for each of these NFL games. And we have found intrigue in some of the numbers for the AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.

If you read our main analysis of this game, we expressed that we wouldn't be surprised if Kansas City kept running the football until the Bills proved they could stop it. And after they piled up 245 rushing yards in a Week 6 meeting, would you blame them?

Maybe they will do well in that regard. Maybe they'll be doing their best to protect Patrick Mahomes. But who will do most of the damage?

In the previous 26-17 victory, it was rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, with 161 yards. But he is questionable with ankle and hip injuries. Le'veon Bell is out, so what does that mean for Darrel Williams, who had 78 yards last week against Cleveland, playing a pretty crucial role?

Here is the prop on him:

Darrel Williams - Rushing Yards

Under 38.5 Yards -143
Over 38.5 Yards +110

I think there is real value in the "over" here, for some of the reasons I talked about above. Don't be shocked if it is less of an aerial assault and more of a ground attack for Kansas City. And inasmuch as Williams delivered when he was called upon last week, I don't think Andy Reid has any problem putting some responsibility on his shoulders. OVER

As far as the quarterbacks are concerned, here are the BetOnline props on those:

Josh Allen - Passing Yards

Over 307.5 Yards -114
Under 307.5 Yards -114

Patrick Mahomes - Passing Yards

Over 312.5 Yards -114
Under 312.5 Yards -114

We'll put them together because we think in a game like this, and in wet conditions (with wind later), it might be a bit much to ask that Mahomes be practically at his season average of 316 passing yards per game, and that Allen will exceed his average (284) by 24 yards. Our forecast is that the running games may be more of a factor than most expect. So we go UNDER with both of these.

Josh Allen - Rushing Yards

Over 38.5 Yards -130
Under 38.5 Yards +100

This is not based on any season average (Allen has 421 rushing yards), but we would not be shocked in the least if - with Zach Moss out and Devin Singletary being the only viable back left - Allen took matters into his own hands a little more than usual. The Chiefs have not been airtight when defending the run (allowing 4.5 ypc), and the metrics indicate that if Allen can get about five yards beyond the line of scrimmage, he could make a big play of it.

Allen may also be forced to run out of the pocket if the Chiefs blitz a lot. And since KC likes to come with pressure up the middle, that will send Allen to the perimeter, which could help him make an explosive play. OVER

Dawson Knox - Receptions

Under 2.5 Receptions -143
Over 2.5 Receptions +110

Obviously Knox, a second-year man out of Ole Miss, is in this prop because he was the most productive tight end in a largely unproductive bunch. He caught 24 passes for 288 yards this season.

Kansas City's secondary has done a more-than-respectable job against opposing wide receivers; in fact, they have allowed the second-lowest yardage total to wideouts in the NFL.

Since Allen likes to throw the ball down the field a little, it might not be unnatural for him to be looking in short range for his tight end. And KC's linebackers have, for the most part, been very subpar in coverage. So perhaps a bit of value here. OVER

Don't forget that with BetOnline, you get a great selection of props, covering just about every angle on the game. And after the kickoff, you can engage in live betting to further the action..... Check out Odds Booster on the sportsbook menu. you'll see some great payouts on pre-selected parlays..... And remember that no matter which way you want to deposit, you can get it done, and that of course includes the digital currency of Bitcoin, which offers the ultimate in convenience and confidentiality!

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