2021 PGA Championship Odds, Stats, Picks And Betting Insights
I'm covering the 2021 PGA Championship from tee to green for a number of companies and outlets, and thought I would chip-in more stats and information you can bet on in your pursuit of profit when betting golf and this week's PGA Championship.
The odds to win have been adjusting at the leading online spotsbooks for the 2021 PGA Championship, and the favorites and big name players are taking more of the betting action. Of course, last week another big longshot won on the PGA Tour, and K.H. Lee was 175/1 or greater.
There are so many longshots and dark horses capable of contending this week with a top finish or victory on the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island. I identified some PGA Championship golfers at longer odds, and added more in my Vegas update and chip-ins at FanDuel, TheLines and Forbes.
While the Ocean Course hosts a PGA Tour event for just the second time since the 2012 PGA Championship, there are still key stats to identify for bettors and players to position themselves for sucess. Of course, wind speeds will be in play more this week on the links course alongside the Atlantic Ocean, and if the wind picks up to higher speeds, all bets are off!
During the second round of the 2012 PGA Championship at the Ocean Course, there was strong winds and weather delays. Scores went way North, and the field averaged 78.09 - the highest single round at the PGA Championship in the last 40 years.
Here are key stats to consider and players that have performed the best in those categories across their last 36 rounds. I research data from Fantasy National, and also reference other sources to assist with time and verification.
Distance off the tee will be an advantage this week with the course stretching to nearly 7,900 yards on the par 72 links layout. Stokes Gained: Off-the-Tee is a key category, but driving accuracy will be a prerequisate for success as well, as the rough will be more punishing near 3.5 inches in length. The course will not be as soft, so moderate hitters that can handle the wind off the tee and on approach can still succeed if their longer iron games and approach play is hitting at a premium level.
Strokes Gained: Approach is the another key state to prioritize, as it is most weeks. There is more leeway with fairway width, and it's of important to be dialed in on approach, trajectory and distance control. Proven players in windier conditions, links specialists and those that have shown strong ball striking and approach play on Pete Dye designs can move to the front as they also navigate the many well-placed bunkers, waste areas, and potentially more penalizing rough. The paspalum greens are slower and grainier, which also may favor top European players that handle wind conditions better.
There are six par 4's at least 450 yards with two greater than 500 yards. Check the proximity to hole stats to confirm players that have more success hitting into greens from longer distances with longer irons. Those players are likely to fare better in windier conditions with ball striking and solid iron play.
Shop and compare golf odds and lines at leading online sportsbooks BetOnline, Bookmaker, My Bookie, Bovada, GT Bets and Jazz Sportsbook.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee leaders last 36 rounds: (Fantasy National database)
1. Bryson DeChambeau 40.5
2. Viktor Hovland 30.3
3. Sergio Garcia 29.6
4. Jon Rahm 27.8
5. Rory McIlroy 26.3
6. Corey Conners 25.9
7. Cameron Champ 24.5
8. Sungjae Im 22.9
9. Bubba Watson 22.7
10. Joaquin Niemann 20.7
11. Daniel Berger 19.7
12. Cameron Davis 19
1. Collin Morikawa
2. Justin Thomas
3. Corey Connors
4. Will Zalatoris
5. Charley Hoffman
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Sam Burns
8. Brooks Koepka
9. Keegan Bradley
10. Abraham Ancer
11. Tyrrell Hatton
13. Tony Finau
14. Paul Casey
Proximity to hole (175-200 yards and 200+ yards)
Morikawa, Zalatoris, Hoffman, Berger, Hatton, Griffin, McIlroy, Cantlay, Hovland, Leishman, Bradley, Connors
Casey, DeChambeau, Hatton, C. Davis, Palmer, J. Thomas, Hoffman, Leishman, Hovland, Garcia, Champ, Bradley, Rahm, Woodland, Berger
Players and Picks
Fairway Golfer to Fade: Patrick Reed
Fairway Favorite: Viktor Hovland
Fairway Legit Longshot: Tyrrell Hatton
Tournament match-up: Tyrrell Hatton (-130) over Tommy Fleetwood - best odds at William Hill.
Patrick Reed has not fared well on Pete Dye designed golf courses. He's 0-for-7 at placing top 20 at TPC Sawgrass, and 0-for-3 at TPC Louisiana. Reed has zero top 40 finishes in four appearances to Harbour Town. He's managed three top-20 finishes in nine starts at Dye's inland course at TPC River Highlands. Reed did finish T30th at Whistling Straits in the 2015 PGA Championship, but nearly missed cut with opening 75.
Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton are strokes gained studs.
Viktor Hovland - last 36 rounds
No. 2 SG: Off-the-Tee
No. 2 SG: Total
No. 4 SG: Ball Striking
No. 8 SG: T2G
No. 24 SG: Approach and Putting
Proximity to hole: No. 9 from 200+ and No. 11 from 175-200
SG: Proximity Par 4's all distances - No. 6, tied with Hatton
Tyrrell Hatton - last 36 rounds
No. 20 SG: Off-theTee
No. 10 SG: Approach
No. 12 SG: Ball Strikings
Proximity to Hole: No. 3 from 200+ and No. 6 from 175-200
Top 10 in sand saves
Enjoy the PGA Championship and your pursuit of profit as you shoot for more fairways and green$.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay