Tua Time in Miami? Not This Year

Don’t hold your breath yet. The Miami Dolphins are going to the Super Bowl, but it will not be the next one, SBLVII. Even though they were 9 - 8 last year, winning four of their last five games, we can’t see 2022 being the Year of the Dolphin. 

Let’s take a deeper look at the Dolphins and, specifically, QB Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins opened the 2021 season in New England against their newly minted QB Mac Jones. Miami managed to squeak by 17 – 16, despite Tua throwing an interception at midfield with eight minutes remaining. The Pats drove to the 11 and fumbled it away with 3:35 left and, luckily, Miami held on.

The next seven games saw Miami lose to Buffalo, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Buffalo again. The latter two losses in Weeks 6 and 7 against the Jaguars and Falcons left a bad taste in our mouth. We can't blame Tua entirely. He got hurt in Week 2 and was carried out of the game with a nasty rib injury. Even though he was back in time for games 6,7 and 8, Tua was still in recovery mode.

In Week 9, Tua fractured his finger and was out against the Texans. Despite his absence, the Dolphins managed to win 17 - 9.

Week 10 saw the Ravens, who finished the year 8 – 9, fly into Miami and lay an egg in the middle of the field. Baltimore had two blown coverages of 52 and 64 yards and a fumble, which accounted for at least 14 unanswered points. Ultimately, Miami got away with a 22 – 11 upset. In this game, Tua shared QB duties with Jacoby Bissett.

The Dolphins were victorious in Weeks 11 thru 16, beating the Jets twice, Panthers, Giants and Saints. If you notice, not one playoff team is in there. Looking at Week 16, the Saints had to start Ian Book, their 3rd string QB because of COVID cases. Due to the COVID rules and restrictions by the NFL, we saw an opportunity and jumped on this game late. We did very well to say the least.

Week 17 saw the Dolphins get crushed by the Tennessee Titans. Then, they finished out the season in Week 18 with a win at home over the Patriots, who were looking forward to their wild card game the following week. Miami missed the playoffs at 9-8, but managed to finish just a game behind the Patriots in the AFC East.

Dolphins in transition

All of this is to say: the Dolphins are still a team in transition. Tua is an average QB at best. In the AFC East, the Dolphins still trail the Patriots and Bills in both talent and coaching. 

After everything that's been written above, if you still feel the need to make Miami your team at the sportsbook, then you should be aware of the following. The true secret to betting Miami is to look at their schedule in September and October. The heat and especially the humidity take its toll on the visiting team. The visiting team's bench is directly in the sun from 1:00 to 4:00 PM. Miami's founder Joe Robbie knew exactly what he was doing when in 1987 he moved the team from the Orange Bowl to his new stadium, known today as Hard Rock Stadium.

Take a good look at Miami’s schedule for the past three years. You’ll notice the upsets and blow out wins over Tennessee, Oakland, Chicago, NY Jets, Washington, and even the Rams. Take a look at November 1, 2020 when the Rams played in Miami. By game time, it was 86 degrees, with 85 percent humidity and the winds were 5 to 10 mph. LA roasted in the South Florida sun and got smoked 28-17.

The bookmakers have the Dolphins listed at 40-1 to  win the Super Bowl 57 and rightfully so. Don't forget, Miami has a new head coach in Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa cannot be trusted to lead this team deep into the playoffs and make a Super Bowl run. For the 2022 NFL season, look for your real edge to win betting on the Dolphins with an above average defense and hot, muggy weather at home in September and October.  

Howard Schwartz has been providing betting insights for over a decade on Facebook. Check out his social media group for more betting tips and NFL wagering advice.