Preview and Top 25 Picks for NCAA Football Week 9 

Just six teams remain undefeated as the NCAA football season hits the final weekend in October. The big showdown in Ann Arbor looks one-sided this year with No. 4 Michigan holding all the edges against state rival Michigan State. The betting lines continue to move and adjust, and this one is up from the opener last Sunday of Michigan -21 to -22.5. 

The big Cocktail Party is in Jacksonville as No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) tackles Florida. But the three AP Top 25 matchups will be generating big betting interest again this week at the leading online sportsbooks. Let's shoot for more winners in our Picks, Opinions and Leans in these three key contests.

- No. 2 Ohio State (-14.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Total 60.5 | 12 p.m. | FOX
- No. 3 Tennessee (-12) vs No. 19 Kentucky, Total 62.5 | 7 p.m. | ESPN
- No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5), Total 56.5 | 3:30 p.m. | FOX

Odds are subject to change and current betting lines from top rated sportsbook BetOnline.  

We split out Top 25 Picks last week and No. 14 Syracuse (+14) was a no sweat winner for OSGA VIP members as the Orange led the No. 5 Tigers 21-10 into the fourth quarter before Clemson rallied for a 27-21 win to remain undefeated. 

I've updated the stats with top defenses and defensive dominators this college football season. Perhaps you would have made a bigger bet on Syracuse had you known the undervalued Orange were a defensive dominator and also near Clemson's equal on offense. Along with the 200 Club offenses that are both balanced and efficient, you can perhaps be better prepared in analyzing the weekly college football match-ups and determining where the edges and value lies. 

Top 25 Matchups and Picks 

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Penn State | 12 p.m. | FOX
Line: Ohio State -14.5 and Total 60.5 at BookMaker 

This line has dropped a full point in the past day. Historic trends mean little to nothing, but Penn State hasn’t lost by this many points to Ohio State since 2015. But this Buckeyes bunch is a beast led by Heisman favorite QB CJ Stroud with 2,000+ passing yards and 29 TD passes. Ohio State is a true defensive dominator, allowing less than 15 points per game, 240 YPG, 4.1 yards per play 91 rushing yards per game. Penn State makes the outside edge of Top defenses, and the Nittany Lions 19 PPG scoring defense will surely rise against Ohio State's powerful, balanced offense now averaging 517 yards per game - 205 rushing and 312 passing while scoring a nation-high 50 points per game averaging. Why is the line then dropping? 

Lean: Penn State  

No. 3 Tennessee vs No. 19 Kentucky | 7 p.m. | ESPN
Line: Tennessee -12 and Total 61 at reduced juice sportsbook BetAnySports

This line is up 1 point from last Sunday's opener in Las Vegas, and was at -12.5 yesterday. The total is down sharply 4-points from the opener. We've cashed in on Volunteers victories a number of times this season including Tennessee's 52-49 Week 7 win and Pick over then No. 3 Alabama. Tough to tackle undefeated Tennessee (7-0) and go against the Volunteer's elite, top rated offense piling up a nation-high 551 yards per game against FBS opponents and adding 696 yards offense last week in a 65-24 blowout win over FCS Tennessee Martin. Tennessee has a huge game at No. 1 Georgia next week, and Kentucky (5-2) has proven unafraid of these sorts of challenges having covered three straight against Georgia themselves. Kentucky is off a bye and can't get into a shootout. The Wildcats average 34 minutes of ball possession per game (top 6 in country) while Tennessee plays very fast. The Wildcats ended a 17-game losing streak in Knoxville with a win over Tennessee in 2020. Kentucky has been outgained in both SEC road games this season and will be again Saturday. But the 'Cats might be able to claw their way to hang with their own top-rated QB Will Levis, who revealed the Wildcats game plan to slow the pace and sustain drives.   

Lean: Kentucky

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
Line: Kansas State -1.5 and Total 56 at MyBookie

Another team we've ridden to paydirt is Oklahoma State (6-1), including a Week 7 Pick against TCU and Week 8 win over Texas with the Cowboys missing some players to injury. Now Oklahoma State catches a Kansas State (5-2) with injury issues and down it's top two QB's including Adrian Martinez, who was knocked out early last week with a leg injury and is a game-time decision vs Oklahoma State (don't count on him). Middle LB Daniel Green was injured and is also a game time decision. Bottom line, injuries, fatigue and beat up bodies take its toll on teams, and we're riding the Cowboys again with the league's leading passer Spencer Sanders (290 YPG) against the wobbly Wildcats. The Cowboys deficient pass defense (303 YPG) may not be taken advantage of this week with the K-State injuries and the Wildcats running more with their league-high rushing attack (232 YPG). Oklahoma State had a good lead at undefeated TCU two weeks ago before blowing the game in a 43-40 OT loss. The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS as 'Dog this season and on a 13-1 ATS run in Big 12 regular season games. 

Pick: Oklahoma State

Bonus Pick

If you're looking for a big match-up edge at the point of attack, then go hog wild with the Razorbacks this week. Arkansas (-3.5) travels to the Plains to run all over Auburn and their lame duck head coach Bryan Harsin. Both teams off a bye, and Arkansas pound the ground rushing attack is elite averaging 245 yards per game vs FBS foes and a never stop 50 rushing attempts per game. Duel QB KJ Jefferson has 18 total TD's (4 rushing) and just 1 INT, and Jefferson completes the Razorbacks 200 Club top, balanced offense profile with 225 passing YPG. Sure the Arkansas defenses is deficient which is why this should be a higher scoring game over 60 points. But the Auburn rush defense is allowing 226 YPG vs FBS opponents. Go Hog wild on the bowl bound Razorbacks against the timid Tigers. 

All Top 25 Games on Sat., Oct. 29 

No. 1 Georgia tackles Florida this week in the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, and Florida is worth a bet as big 'Dog. The battle of Michigan is a big one, and the No. 4 Wolverines are also laying a huge price vs Michigan State, but all the stats suggest Big Blue can bury Sparty in the Big House. No. 2 Ohio State is laying more than 2 TD's at No. 13 Penn State, while No. 3 Tennessee also tries to remain undefeated in a top 25 matchup against Kentucky. 

Odds below on Top 25 games from BetOnline. 

No. 1 Georgia (-22.5) vs Florida, Total 56.5 in Jacksonville, FL | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 2 Ohio State (-14.5) at No. 13 Penn State, Total 60.5 | 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 3 Tennessee (-12) vs No. 19 Kentucky, Total 62.5 | 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 4 Michigan (-23) vs Michigan State, Total 54.5 | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 7 TCU (-7.5) at West Virginia, Total 68.5 | 12 p.m. | ESPN
No. 8 Oregon (-17) at Cal, Total 58.5 | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5), Total 56.5 | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
No. 10 (tie) Wake Forest (-3.5) at Louisville, Total 63.5 | 3:30 p.m. | ACC
No. 10 Southern Cal (-15) at Arizona, Total 76.5 | 6 p.m. | FS1
No. 12 UCLA (-16) vs Stanford, Total 66.5 | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 14 Utah (-7) at Washington State, Total 54.5 | 10:00 p.m. | FS1 (Thurs, Utes won 21-17)
No. 15 Ole Miss (-1.5) at Texas A&M, Total 55.5 | 7:30 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 16 Syracuse (-2.5) vs Notre Dame, Total 47.5 | 12 p.m. | ABC
No. 17 Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska, Total 50.5 | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-2), Total 56.5 | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 21 North Carolina (-3) at Pittsburgh, Total 64.5 | 8 p.m. | ACC Network
No. 25 South Carolina (-3.5) vs Missouri, Total 46.5 | 4 p.m. | SEC Network

College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings begin next week. 

A few advanced betting lines on some of the biggest games in November include: 

Nov. 5 Tennessee at Georgia (-12.5) 
Nov. 26 Michigan at Ohio State (-10.5)

Check back for more college football betting updates and information you can bet on as the biggest games ahead decide conference titles, bowl game spots and a trip to the College Football Playoff for the top four teams. 

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.