Analysis and predictions for college football week 11 Top 25 games

Eight ranked teams lost last week in the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings. But the top-8 teams remain the same led by the top 5 who are still undefeated - Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Washington. No. 6 Oregon has a case to be in the elite category as they take more money and up to a -15.5 point favorite over USC, who has fallen out of the Top 25 after starting the season ranked No. 6 while Oregon was No. 15. 

There are four CFP Top 25 matchups this week drawing more watch and wager interest, including two top-10 matchups.

- No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia (-11)
- No. 3 Michigan (-4.5) at No. 10 Penn State
- No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-8.5)
- No. 13 Tennessee (-1.5) at No. 14 Missouri

Last Saturday's Week 10 Picks and Opinions stumbled going 1-5 with a second-straight week of very unfortunate breaks. The Rutgers (+18.5) loss by 19 points was disgusting, as the Scarlet Knights led 9-7 at halftime, settling for 3 very short FG's, and outgained Ohio State for the game with the Buckeye's getting ahead of the spread in the final two minutes. More rushing yards by margin, 22-15 first downs edge for Rutgers, good Lord. Texas (-4) also won by 3 points after leading 27-7 late in the 3rd quarter at home. Our winner was the bonus pick on Clemson outright as 'Dog over Notre Dame, and bonus picks are now 5-0 this season. 

All college football 2023 Picks and Opinions through Week 10 are 23-21, including 20-16 ATS on sides. 

Top 25 Matchup Picks: 3-6 
Top 25 Matchup Opinions: 7-8
Top 25 Game Picks: 3-1
Bonus Picks: 5-0
Bonus Opinions: 1-1
Top 25 Games Opinions: 3-2
Top 25 Totals Opinions: 1-3 

Bet Fairway's Picks at these Top Online Sportsbooks for more profits and payouts. 

Top 25 Games, Odds and TV Schedule

College football odds from BetAnySports refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern (ET). 

Saturday, Nov. 11

No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5) vs. Michigan State | 7:30 p.m. | NBC
No. 2 Georgia (-11) vs. No. 9 Ole Miss | 7:00 p.m. | ESPN
No. 3 Michigan (-4.5) at No. 10 Penn State | 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 4 Florida State (-14.5) vs. Miami | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 5 Washington (-8.5) vs. No. 18 Utah | 3:30 p.m. | FOX
No. 6 Oregon (-15.5) vs. USC | 10:30 p.m. | FOX
No. 7 Texas (-11.5) at TCU | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 8 Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky | 12 p.m. | ESPN
No. 11 Louisville (-20.5) vs. Virginia | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN (Thursday)
No. 12 Oregon State (-21) vs. Stanford | 5:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 13 Tennessee (-1.5) at No. 14 Missouri | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 15 Oklahoma State (-2.5) at Central Florida | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 16 Kansas (-3.5) vs. Texas Tech | 12 p.m. | FS1
No. 17 Oklahoma (-12.5) vs. West Virginia | 7 p.m. | FOX
No. 19 LSU (-14.5) vs. Florida | 7:30 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 20 Notre Dame | Bye
No. 21 Arizona (-10.5) at Colorado | 2 p.m. | Pac 12 Network
No. 22 Iowa (NL) vs. Rutgers | 3:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
No. 23 Tulane (-22.5) vs. Tulsa | 12 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 24 North Carolina (-14) vs. Duke | 8 p.m. | ACC Network
No. 25 Kansas State (-21) vs. Baylor | 3 p.m. | ESPN+

I'll also be at the key Mountain West game Friday night in Las Vegas as Wyoming battles vs. UNLV (-5.5) at Allegian Stadium and TV coverage on FS1 starting at 10:45 p.m. ET. The Rebels (7-2) are 4-1 in conference play while Wyoming (6-3) is 3-2 with both teams chasing Air Force (8-1, 5-0), who UNLV plays next week. UNLV is also 8-1 against the spread (ATS) this season - tied with Oregon for best in the country.

Week 11 College Football Playoff Top 25 Picks And Matchups 

No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State | 12 p.m. on FOX
Line: Michigan -5.5 and Total 45.5
Opinion: Penn State 

More stats and analysis of this Michigan-Penn State matchup in my Top 25 coverage in Forbes. Both teams are defensive dominators and rank top-3 in the country in scoring defense and yards against with Michigan No. 1 in both categories. Select leading online sportsbooks with top payouts are dealing Michigan -5.5, including Caesars in the U.S. So take back the best number if you support Penn State. This will likely be the last time I consider going against Michigan this season in their toughest test yet, although the Wolverines will be laying double-digits at Maryland next Saturday with the huge lookahead rivaly game for all the marbles and spot in the Big Ten championship game the following week vs. Ohio State. 

No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington | 3:30 p.m. on FOX
Line: Washington -9.5 and Total 49.5
Opinion: Utah

Utah's offense found its groove last week in a 55-3 win over Arizona State. The Utes (7-2) have allowed the fewest points (142) in the Pac 12 and have the conferences top pass efficiency defense to somewhat slow QB Michael Penix, Jr. and the country's top passing attack. Washington remains undefeated, but their defense is allowing more than 410 yards per game to Utah's league-low 292.  

No. 13 Tennessee at No. 14 Missouri | 3:30 p.m. on CBS
Line: Tennessee -1.5 and Total 57.5
Opinion: Tennessee

Both the Volunteers and Tigers are 7-2 including 3-2 in SEC play. Tennessee is the No. 1 rushing team of all power conference teams averaging 227 yards per game vs. FBS opponents. Missouri averages 141 rushing yards per game. Add in the Volunteers 240 passing yards per game (Mizzou 290), and we have a balanced, efficient '200 Club' offense that plays fast and is more efficient passing the past month with Joe Milton completing 75% of his passes the past three games without an INT including 272 yards in a loss at Alabama. Last road game for Tennessee, who has Georgia on deck. But Mizzou battled hard in a 30-21 loss to Georgia last week, and the Tigers actually led in the fourth quarter. Play the Volunteers to get the victory. 

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 3 Georgia | 7 p.m. on ESPN
Line: Georgia -11 and Total 58
Opinion: Ole Miss

The terrific Ole Miss trio of QB Jaxson Dart, RB Quinshon Judkins and WR Tre Harris will be more than Georgia can handle as the Rebels can balance the attack and move the ball with a near 200 Club offense. Mississippi is 8-1 SU with just two point spread losses. Sure, Georgia (9-0) is an undefeated top Dawg who is also playing their last home game. But plenty of points to take with a quality team. 

Top 25 Picks

Stanford at No. 12 Oregon State
Line: Oregon State -20.5
Opinion: Oregon State

Big chalk eaters will love piling on Oregon State in this matchup. The Beavers may well steamroll the Cardinal with a balanced offense that I project will both rush and pass for more than 200 yards. Teams that do that this season are covering the spread just over 75% ATS with a sample size of more than 100 games. The Beavers (7-2) have lost just two games, and both in conference by 3 points on the road. At home at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon State has been the most dominant team in college football going 17-1 SU/ATS the past three years. Stanford (3-6) has seen a slight uptick in play while also catching a few teams in good spots. Stanford won at Washington State last week 10-7 with just 217 yards offense. Beavers bury another opponent at home. 

Bonus Pick

Washington State at California
Line: Pick 'em
Pick: California

Our college football bonus picks are 5-0 this season, and this is just pick overall on these pages that hasn't included a Top 25 team. We add it knowing that Cal (3-6) is going to both run and pass for at least 200 yards against a deficient Washington State (4-5) defense. Both teams are 1-5 in Pac 12 play, and the one dimensional Wazzu offense passes for 317 yards per game and runs for 59 yards per game - worst in the nation. The Golden Bears gave it their all two weeks ago with more than 500 yards balanced offense and a missed 2-point conversion in a 50-49 defeat to USC. Then the letdown, emotion and no energy blowout loss to top team Oregon last week while WSU was losing to Stanford at home 10-7. That's fives straight losses for the Cougars, including two straight vs. Pac 12 bottom feeders Stanford and Arizona State. The Bears are a much better candidate to bounce back from last week's loss and we like the offensive balance profile and matchups despite some defensive deficiencies on both teams. Let's put the spotlight on the Pac 12 with our two additional picks outside of Top 25 matchups, as the Pac 12 is enjoying a superb sendoff season before the conference collapses with more realignment. 

The other big game in the Pac 12 is worth noting with USC (+15.5) taking back huge points at Oregon. The dominating Ducks are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS - best in the country with UNLV. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS and just fired their defensive coordinator. If you're in the buy low, sell high business of sports betting, then you get bonus points as this is the time to get USC at it's lowest point and Oregon at its peak. 

Check back for more updates, analysis and information you can bet on by Saturday morning, along with any additional picks.

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