Preview and picks for NCAA Football Week 1

I cover college football and the NFL throughout the season for a number of media companies and online platforms, including Forbes. I'll be updating the AP Top 25 each week with betting lines, key matchups, insight and odds updates from leading online sportsbooks along with additional information you can bet on. 

You can follow along and decide if you want to bet on the NFL and NCAA football Picks, Opinions and Leans provided each week, as available.

In 2022, our college football Top 25 matchup Picks went 11-7 ATS.

Last season in 2023 I expanded to add more, and the results were mixed and included some separate picks and underdogs from other games on the schedule in separate college football articles and updates. The bonus picks went 6-0 ATS for the season. Overall, all college football Top 25 Picks and Opinions went 28-27 ATS including 22-19 ATS on sides. That was a disappointing finish since through Week 7 in October Fairways Forecast and Top 25 Picks and Opinions were 18-11, including 15-8 ATS on sides.

I'll be pulling stats and data from leading sources, industry colleagues and football newsletters which provide ATS info and other stats that can be so time consuming to research. But I'll use my own insight, intuition and years of experience and research as a proven football handicapper and point spread prognosticator to try and guide you towards more winners. I like to dig into stats and have provided information and insight for years looking for match-up edges, along with stats and situational plays that can often be overlooked when evaluating the games and matchups. 

Winning bets is always the goal and how we keep score. But developing a process in your handicapping approach, monitoring the betting market, overreactions and making adjustments while searching for value should be of great significance. As you shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron, recognize there are plenty of hazards and rough along the way as you navigate and manage all the information put in front of you each week. 

Also understand that while the top teams in the Top 25 rankings draw most the headlines, attention and betting action, those games often don't offer the best value or betting opportunities. The online sportsbooks take the most bets on those games, which in turn drives the handle on the top teams and matchups.

But since those games are of most interest to many fans and get the most media coverage and betting action, I'll try to cover those college football games from tee-to-green and chip-in information you can bet on. As available or through social media and distribution updates I received from top online sportsbooks, I'll provide added sportsbook betting data as benefits and update as available so you can see which teams are attracting more bets and money (handle).

Early season and nonconference play is predominantly packed with Power Four conference teams playing Group of Five conference opposition. That lends to more lopsided point spreads and often one-sided results. The transfer portal is only adding to the discrepancy. 

Bet on NCAA Football at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Week 1 Top 25 Matchups and Picks

The season begins with three Top 25 matchups in 2024. There was just one in opening week last year, three in 2022 and five in 2021. 

NCAA football odds courtesy of BetOnline and affiliate Sportsbetting.ag. 

Sat, Aug. 31
No. 14 Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia (Atlanta) | 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+
Line: Georgia -11.5 and Total 48 
Lean: Clemson team total under 17.5

The gap has widened between these two top programs in recent years. But money is talking on the Tigers with Clemson now +11.5 and down from +13.5 just days ago. That despite Georgia's dominance of 42-2 SU since 2021 and offensive line potential problems in this matchup for Clemson, who ranked very poorly in PFF's pass blocking efficiency last season. 

Sat., Aug. 31
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M (-2.5), Total  | 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+
Line: Texas A&M -2.5 / 3 and Total 46 
Pick: Texas A&M

Notre Dame lost both their starting offensive tackles to the NFL, and earlier this month starting OT Charles Jagusah was lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. That means true freshman Anthonie Knapp makes his debut on the road in College Station, and across from him is A&M All-American edge rusher candidate Nic Scourton, a projected first team All-SEC dominator who leads the SEC's top-rated defensive line that led the SEC in sacks and No. 2 in tackles for loss last season. That edge up front for Texas A&M with four returning OL starters and defensive dominators will show in this matchup, and teams that outrush their opponents by at least a 2/1 margin is a very positive ATS play. That's possible in this matchup with A&M's running game to be significantly improved with first year head coach Mike Elko, who was the Notre Dame defensive coordinator in 2017. Elko also coached Notre Dame transfer senior QB Riley Leonard for 2 years at Duke. We like that edge for Elko and the Aggies also while highly-touted Soph QB Conner Weigman returns from a season-ending foot injury last year after playing four games. His debut in 2022 as a true freshman was special passing for 338 yards and 4 TD's in a 31-28 loss to Ole Miss. He'll face a top Irish secondary, but the Aggies look ready and the line is up from -2.5 and showing more -3 (-105) with reduced juice. The Aggies have won their last 6 season openers, and now 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS in home openers.  

Sunday, Sept. 1
No. 13 LSU vs. No. 23 USC (Las Vegas) | 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+
Line: LSU -4 and Total 64
Opinion: LSU

This line has dropped from LSU -6.5 to -4. But the better running game with top OL is on LSU's side with four returning starters including Will Campbell, who is one of two NFL prospects at offensive tackle, and two other LSU guards that have combined for 30 starts. On the opening game in Las Vegas, Campbell says "We're not there to go to Caesars Palace. We're there to go get in a fist fight." I like it, along with preference to LSU with both the Tigers and Trojans starting QB's replacing the last two Heisman Trophy winners and top picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams (USC) and Jayden Daniels (LSU). 

Top 25 Games and Lines

Betting lines and college football odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Games Aug. 31-Sept. 2. All times ET. 

Friday, Aug. 30 

No. 16 Oklahoma (-42.5) vs. Temple | 7 p.m. | ESPN 

Saturday, Aug. 31

No. 1 Georgia (-11.5) vs. No. 14 Clemson (Atlanta, GA) | 12 p.m. | ABC
No. 2 Ohio State (-48.5) vs. Akron | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 3 Oregon (-44.5) vs. Idaho | 7:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
No. 4 Texas (-32) vs. Colorado State | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 5 Alabama (-32) vs. Western Kentucky | 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 6 Ole Miss (-42.5) vs. Furman | 7 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M (-3) | 7:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
No. 8 Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia | 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 9 Michigan (-21) vs. Fresno State | 7:30 p.m. | NBC
No. 15 Tennessee (-38.5) vs. Chattanooga | 12:45 p.m. | SEC Network
No. 17 Oklahoma State (-9.5) vs. South Dakota State | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
No. 18 Kansas State (NL) vs. UT Martin | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
No. 19 Miami (-2.5) at Florida | 3:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+
No. 21 Arizona (-31) vs. New Mexico | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
No. 25 Iowa (NL) vs. Illinois State | 12 p.m. | Big Ten Network 

Sunday, Sept. 1
No. 13 LSU (-4) vs. No. 23 USC (Las Vegas | 7:30 p.m. | ABC/ESPN+

Monday, Sept. 2
No. 10 Florida State (-16.5) vs. Boston College | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN/ACC Network

I'm traveling this weekend and attending a college football game as well. But check back later and Saturday morning for more updates, analysis, ATS and information you can bet on. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.