A look at four underdogs for 11/17

A pair of outright underdog winners on the Steelers and Vikings in our Week 10 picks and preview was not enough as a 2-3 week drops our record to 16-16 ATS this season. Lions QB Matthew Stafford was ruled out on Sunday without notice and the line moved from Bears -3 to a 6.5-point favorite and Chicago held on for a 20-13 win despite the Lions out-gaining the Bears 357 to 226 (4.3 yards per play) and just 13 first downs for Chicago. 

On to Week 11 with more storylines and market moves as teams push towards the playoffs. 

NFL Week 11 - Sunday, Nov. 17

465 Houston (+4.5) at Baltimore - Texans Moneyline +185
470 Philadelphia (+4.5) vs New England - Eagles Moneyline +180
473 Chicago (+6.5) at LA Rams - Bears Moneyline +250
454 Tampa Bay (+6 or better) vs New Orleans - Buccaneers Moneyline +200  *see analysis

The Texans (6-3) are off a bye and face the red hot Ravens (7-2) on a 5-0 SU and 3-0 ATS run that includes the 37-20 Ravens romp over the Patriots two weeks again when Baltimore was off its bye week. We'll sell high on the Ravens here despite their league-leading running game (197/game) with QB Jackson making defenders miss and leading the team in rushing (702) with RB Mark Ingram (619) a strong runner leading the team in rushing touchdown with eight. The Texans run defense allows just 84 yards per game to rank No. 3 in the league, and even better over their last four contests. Jackson is an elite runner and improved in passing, as he now has two games this season with a perfect passer rating. But Deshaun Watson is an excellent quarterback and more proficient passer with 70% completions and 8.1 yards per pass to rank among the league-leaders. Both quarterbacks are in the MVP discussion as serious contenders for first place teams. Coach Harbaugh is one of the best as well for Baltimore, while Texans coach O'Brien is far from it and one of the worst past head coaches is the Texans defensive coordinator (Romeo Crennel), who we're not thrilled about having him game plan for Ravens QB Jackson and the Baltimore offense. But we're confident the Texans will move the ball and score and the Ravens have allowed at least 17 points in all four home games including 40 to the Browns in defeat back in Week 4. The Texans are 5-0 ATS off a bye and rest when coming off a double-digit win and their last win was an impressive one burying the Jaguars 26-3. 

A check of the consensus picks against the spread from the leading online sportsbooks shows that the Patriots (8-1) are taking more than 80% of the spread bets against the Eagles (5-4) as documented by Sports Insights. That's most of the week behind Dallas, who is taking the most bets into a rising line with Lions QB Matthew Stafford (back) ruled out. I was going to pull the Eagles (+4.5) off our 'Dog log on these pages after reading more into the injury updates. Running back Jordan Howard is a game time decision (shoulder) and Miles Sanders will carry the load as a most capable rookie. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey is out leaving Philadelphia thin at receiver. But now the Patriots have ruled out safety Patrick Chung (heel, chest). The Eagles are tied on top with Dallas in the NFC East. All the talk about not betting against Brady and Belichick off a loss, but we'll do that despite New England being 45-8 straight up in their last 53 regular season games following a loss, including 30-2 ATS in those games off a loss when not favored by more than 6 points. The totals picture shows the Patriots 11-0-1 UNDER the total in their last 12 regular season games following a loss. Is that a tidbit or a meaningless trend? The match-ups matter up front and the Eagles will continue to turn to their All Pro right tackle Lane Johnson, who is the best run blocking tackle according to Pro Football Focus, and he's surrendered just one sack this season. The Eagles run defense allows just 87 yards per game to rank No. 4 in the league, while the Patriots have surrendered 150 rushing yards per game over their last three contests (210 to Ravens) to rank second-to-last in the league. The Eagles have rushed for 160 YPG over their last three contests, and controlling the ball, clock and chains will be their focus in this match-up. Taking an extra point with the market move has us flying with the Eagles (+4.5) just as we did in the 2018 Super Bowl against the Patriots. 

The Rams (5-4) offensive line is hurting, and they lost two more offensive linemen to injuries in last weeks loss at Pittsburgh - a winner for us on these pages. Quarterback Jared Goff turned into a puddle of panic in defeat with his worst stats of the season completing just 53% of his passes with a pair of interceptions and a lost fumble. Goff is in the bottom third of the league: DVOA, 24th; QBR, 28th. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the worst quarterback – by passer rating – under pressure this season. The Rams rank No. 21 in the league in offensive efficiency, and they are rushing for less than 100 yards per game this season. Star RB Todd Gurley has yet to rush for 100 yards or more in a game this season, and that won't improve against the Bears top 5 run defense. Pressure from the Bears defense will be plenty this week on Goff, and but the Bears Bears (4-5) offense is also unlikely to get much traction averaging just 262 YPG this season an less over their last three contests with poor quarterback play from Trubisky. The total has dropped sharply to 40 and we understand and agree with offensive issues and both defenses top-5 in yards per play against. But defenses and turnovers can create shorter fields and scores, which is still a concern with a lower total. What's of greater concern for Rams bettors is spotting this price on a banged up and beaten team that is three games back of the NFC West division lead and two games behind in the wild card after making the Super Bowl last season. The Bears defense should have a say in this outcome and we take the points with some money line as well on competitive underdogs expecting this line to close 6 or less. Note: Bears RB David Montgomery (ankle) is a game time decision.   

If the Buccaneers hit +6 as a home 'Dog against the Saints at the leading online sportsbooks, we'll add Tampa Bay to our 'Dog log and keep whacking our head against the wall with mistake-minded QB Jameis Winston, who leads the league in interceptions. Tampa has 21 turnovers including 15 in the last four games with most of them by Winston. Tampa is on a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS slide because Winston is a fk-up and can't stop making mistakes. The Saints were a 3-point home favorite at Tampa Bay on Oct. 6 when QB Brees was out and New Orleans won 31-24 with Winston actually having zero turnovers. Now the Saints are laying a bigger price on the road, providing value with the Bucs as the Saints looked way out of sorts last week in a 26-9 home loss to the now two-win Falcons. 

Shop and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers. including the most recent from BookMaker and 5Dimes. You can also check out Sports Insights NFL live odds and betting data with percentages of bets on teams taking from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks Including BookMaker and 5Dimes. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay