Week 3 NFL Underdog Selections

Strong start to the NFL season now 6-2 ATS following a 2-2 week on our underdog picks. That included an outright winner on the Lions, and near miss but cover on the Broncos (+2.5), who took the lead in the final minute only for them (the officials) to allow the Bears to keep a drive alive, and then complete a 4th and 15 for 25 yards with less than 10 seconds left before the game-winning 53-yard field goal at the gun, 16-14. 

Week 3 has seen a lot of line and market moves, and 8 backup quarterbacks will start this week due to injuries or coaches decisions to make a change. 

Jaguars: Gardner Minshew - Nick Foles (shoulder) out
Colts: Jacoby Brissett - Andrew Luck retired.
Jets: Luke Falk - Sam Darnold (mono), Trevor Siemian (ankle) out
Dolphins: Josh Rosen - Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced
NY Giants: Daniel Jones - Eli Manning replaced 
Panthers:  Kyle Allen - Cam Newton (foot)  out
Saints:  Teddy  Bridgewater  - Drew  Brees  (thumb)
Steelers:  Mason  Rudolph  - Ben  Roethlisberger  (elbow)  out

Here is a 'recency report' I provide each week with current week market moves and the NFL Week 4 look ahead lines. I hope this information helps you in your pursuit of profit, as I try to provide added insights beyond just the picks. 

If you like tracking NFL odds and percentages of bets on teams each week from a consensus of 7 leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes along with BetOnline, then check out Sports Insights Live NFL odds for Week 3. 

Part of our delay this week was being sidetracked the end of the week, but to also review injury reports, and scanning them and getting information like this on the Bengals and their laundry list of injured players and added problems along the offensive line is key when wagering. 

Over the past 2+ seasons, our NFL record on these pages is 57-29 ATS (66%) including 39 outright underdog winners. Let's keep it going with this week's play. Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks.

473 NY Jets (+21.5) at New England – Jets Money Line +1380
488 Cleveland (+3.5) vs LA Rams - Browns Money Line +160

The Jets start third-string QB Luke Falk, who will make his NFL starting debut after going 20-of-25 for 198 yards in relief last week. Falk and the Jets embarrassing home loss 23-3 Monday night is part of the reason why this line is greater than 20 points with the lookahead line a week ago Patriots -14.5. Another reason is the Patriots have blown out their first two opponents Pittsburgh and Miami by a combined 76-3 and became the first team in 25 years to start the season 2-0 while covering the point spread by more than 20 points in both games. Still, Falk has a past history of beating the odds, and he also has elite RB Le'Veon Bell to rely on, which he will both running and in the short passing game. New England's secondary is top level, which will make it hard on Falk moving the ball down the field. The Patriots will go to a heavy two-back formation and run the ball more often with the Jets also missing a few key defenders including middle linebacker C.J. Mosely (groin) and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams (ankle). Those are also big concerns, as the potential rushing edge for the Patriots increases their chances of covering. Still, the Patriots are 0-4 ATS as a 20+ point favorite under QB Brady, and this line is huge. The under is dropping and we agree, but we'll still try to take advantage of the line over-reaction and step in with the very big 'Dog.

The Browns are getting little backing from bettors, as the Rams (80%) are taking the highest percentage of spread bets of any team this week according to live NFL odds from Sports Insights and the consensus data from seven leading online sportsbooks. The Rams make their second trip East and the Dawg pound will be a tough trip on Sunday night football. The Browns were buried here opening week 43-13 by the Titans but three turnovers and 18 penalties for 182 yards were also an issue. Cleveland's bounce back on the road Monday night to win 23-3 at New York saw them gain 375 yards at 6.4 yards per play, but QB Baker Mayfield must still play better and improve accuracy. Expect RB Nick Chubb to be a focus this week, and the Browns returning home as 'Dog off a win is a positive situation that has us biting with the line move upward.

Some line moves off numbers no long available on the Lions, and concerns with new starting QB's including Steelers Rudolph on the road. Sharps are lining up on the Steelers, but the line is not moving despite Pittsburgh taking slightly more bets than San Francisco according to Sports Insights live data. Despite the big adjustment and perceived value on Pittsburgh, who does have key players available in RB Connor, CB Haden and new FS Fitzpatrick, we'll still watch with interest and consider in-game wagering at the sportsbooks with more info as the game moves along. Back next week looking to deliver with more 'Dogs.    

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay