Our worst week of the season on the weekly NFL 'Dog log on these pages going 1-3 ATS in Week 7 and dropping the season-to-date record to 13-9 ATS. We've hit 100 plays over the past 2+ seasons posting on these pages and now 64-36 ATS (64%). 

We continue our pursuit of profit underdog style looking to avoid the turnovers by our teams which can be so costly. Teams that have a negative turnover margin of 3 or more in a game are 3-18 SU/ATS this season. The Giants (3-0), Falcons (3-0), Bengals (4-0), Eagles (4-1) and Jets (6-1) all suffered terrible turnover troubles in Week 7 SU/ATS defeats. Teams that have exactly a negative turnover margin of 2 in a game are 2-21 SU and 5-18 ATS. So if a team is on the wrong side of a two or more turnovers margin in a game, they are 8-36 ATS this season and just 5-39 SU. 

More injury news, analysis and market moves at the sportsbooks along with a Week 9 look ahead lines.. The dreadful Dolphins (0-6) are a 14.5-point underdog Monday night at Pittsburgh (2-4) with the Steelers off a bye. I may add the game separately after further review.

NFL Week 8 - Sunday, Oct. 27 

251 New York Giants (+7) at Detroit - Giants Moneyline +245
253 Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Tennessee - Buccaneers Moneyline +125
273 Cleveland (+11) at New England - Browns Moneyline +450

The NFL weather report shows a 100% chance of rain in the forecast in Foxboro Sunday for the Patriots and Browns game.  

The Browns enter off a bye, and that situation combined with this huge price also sets up a very positive ATS profile for Cleveland. The Browns are also getting healthier especially in the secondary with two key players returning this week in Ward and Williams. The Browns offensive line is better than it's shown, and expect a stronger performance similar to when Cleveland went to Baltimore and romped over the Ravens scoring 40 points. 

The Patriots have pounced all opponents other than the Bills, who outplayed New England in defeat but had 4 TOs. We can't predict turnovers, or the many bad calls by the officials that are changing the complexion of many games. The weather is another hazard to deal with this week. The Patriots defense is strong, and especially the secondary. New England also has the superior run defense in this match-up. New England is setting DVOA records, and the powerful Patriots have outscored opponents by 175 points, the most through 7 games in 100 years. That won't continue of course having faced a ridiculously soft schedule that now toughens over the next 6 games. New England is also coming off a Monday night game and easy win against the giving Jets. The public bettors love the powerful Patriots, who are taking more than 70% of the spread bets at a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks as tracked by Sports Insights. Yet the line has dropped. The Browns are a bet.

The Buccaneers (2-4) are off a bye following the debacle in London against Carolina when QB Winston's poor decision-making and all-to-often mistakes hurt his team again with 5 interceptions in a 37-26 defeat. Winston's inconsistency and turnover troubles have been problematic in three games this season and most of his 4+ year career. In his other games this season, Winston has performed like the former No. 1 pick he was in 2015. Perhaps he'll continue to develop further in coach Arians system and the bye week will help. Rest assured if he doesn't, you're seeing his final two months in Tampa. Playing the Titans should help, as Tennessee has been carved up pretty well this season by the quality quarterbacks in Cleveland, Atlanta and last week the LA Chargers. The Bucs have been good enough to win at both Carolina and Los Angeles against the Rams, and the DVOA numbers are stronger than the Titans (3-4). The Bucs run defense also allows just 68 rushing YPG; best in the NFL. Now they get defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul back this week for his season debut. The pass defense is a problem, and new Titans QB Ryan Tannehill was much better in his Titans debut last week than former No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft Marcus Mariota. Tennessee escaped at home last week 23-20 on the Chargers fumble at the goal line in the closing minute. Hopefully the Buccaneers don't suffer the similar turnover troubles and Winston can perform up to expectations. Tough to count on that, but we'll be on it this week. 

Shop and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers. You can also check out Sports Insights live odds and betting data with percentages of bets on teams taking from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks, including BookMaker and 5Dimes. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay