Sports betting news and underdog picks for NFL Week 10
The Week 10 schedule has just two division games and another contest in Germany between the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) and New England Patriots (2-7). One week after fans in Germany got to see two division leaders play with the Kansas City Chiefs 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins, now they are stuck with two of the worst teams the AFC has to offer.
Last week on these pages was the worst we had to offer, going 0-4 ATS on our NFL Week 9 underdog picks. Three conference contenders all lost one score games as underdogs - Miami, Dallas and Buffalo. The Dolphins out-gained the Chiefs, but a defensive score was the difference in defeat. The Cowboys outgained the Eagles by more than 110 yards, but you saw the two point conversion failure stepping out of bounds, and then Dallas' first and goal failure at the end of the game. The Bills were minus (-2) in turnovers losing to the Bengals and also turned the ball over near the Cincinnati 10 yard line.
The fourth loss was on the Carolina Panthers, who outgained the Colts (198 yards) by more than 75 yards, but were also minus (-2) in the turnover column - a greater than 72% ATS losing situation and stat. Overrated rookie QB Bryce Young tossed 3 interceptions, including a pair of long pick-6s to Colts CB Kenny Moore II. We'll save further comments. Oh, and the Panthers out-rushed the Colts 138-78, and were the only team last week to outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards and not cover the spread (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, 76% ATS this season).
For the season, underdogs are winning just 44% ATS following last weeks 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS results. While we could discuss other bets or teaser winners on those three top teams as 'Dogs last week, it's not what this exercise and weekly 'Dog log and picks are about. We try to provide underdog winners and added insight to help you profit from the experience.
No good #NFLWeek9 underdog picks as Favorites go 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS ahead of MNF. 3 conference contenders all lost one score games, but MIA, DAL, BUF cashed teaser bets to soften blow pic.twitter.com/NxBV1yE6Dz— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) November 6, 2023
Our NFL underdog picks are now 12-16 ATS this season, and 174-133 ATS (56.7%) the past 6+ seasons posting at OSGA. You can see how quickly a bad week or two can impact the winning percentage, as our 58% history into this season is going down sharply, and the 70% season of 2021 is a thing of the past with the what have you done for me lately ringing through.
On to the Week 10 Underdog Picks, and some added insight on quarterbacks and scoring in the NFL Week 11 lookahead lines report. So many QB injuries, rookie and inexperienced quarterbacks that have been a factor in less scoring and game totals going Under at a 62% success rate. More on scoring, rushing and quarterbacks in weeks ahead.
NFL Week 10 Odds
- 59% CHI -3.5 v CAR
- 55% IND -2 @ NE
- 55% BAL -6 v CLE
- 62% CIN -6.5 v HOU
- 67% SF -3 @ JAX
- 57% MIN +2.5 v NO
- 82% PIT -3.5 v GB
- 65% TB -1 v TEN
- 61% ATL -1 @ AZ
- 92% DET -1.5 @ LAC
- 67% DAL -16.5 v NYG
- 77% SEA -6 v WSH
- 65% LV +2 v NYJ
- 51% BUF -7.5 v DEN
NFL Week 10 Underdog Opinions and Considerations
We'll handicap and research more into Friday before posting our final underdog picks, analysis and any additional information you can bet on.
- Jacksonville (+3) vs. San Francisco
- Minnesota (+2.5) vs. New Orleans
- Los Angeles (+2.5) vs. Detroit
- Washington (+6) at Seattle
NFL Week 10 injury reports
Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 10 Underdog Picks
Washington (+6) at Seattle - Commanders Moneyline +210
New England (+2) vs. Indianapolis - Patriots Moneyline +110 (Germany)
Tennessee (+1/1.5) at Tampa Bay - Titans Moneyline -105
Washington at Seattle - Commanders QB Sam Howell is turning the corner, and was very impressive last week other than a poor interception. He pass for 325 yards and spread the ball well to his receivers, including underrated star Terry McLaurin. Washington out-played New England far more than the 20-17 score and win. The Seahawks (5-3) were as bad as the score last week in a beatdown by Baltimore 37-3 with a 298-28 rushing advantage for the Ravens and just six first downs and 151 yards offense for Seattle and the QB Geno Smith we have known from the past. It wasn't just Smith's fault or poor production, as the Seahawks offensive line allowed 19 pressure and 3 sacks on 34 dropbacks last week. Seattle's offensive line enters Week 10 ranked No. 27 by Pro Football Focus with its running game averaging just 85 yards per game over their last three contests and just 28 vs. the Ravens. Now it's back-to-back road games and long travel for Washington, who has some defensive deficiencies but also held the Eagles to just 59 rushing yards two weeks ago. My projections have Washington outrushing and outgaining Seattle and we have a confident and more capable QB in Sam Howell and a solid running back tandem. Take +6.5 if it pops and bet the over too. Watch the injury reports, along with scheduling. Seattle has the Rams, 49ers (2x), Cowboys and Eagles before Chrismas Eve, and there will be many more losses with the Commanders capable of the road win too.
New England vs. Indianapolis (Germany, > 50% chance rain) - After further review, we'll add the Patriots (2-7), who are on a 1-5 SU/ATS run but did manage to beat the Bills. In my NFL Week 8 coverage in Forbes, I noted the defensive deficiencies and secondary injuries and concerns of the Colts (4-5). The Saints rolled up a week-high 511 yards at 7.7 yards per play to crush the Colts, 38-27. Indianapolis had just 198 yards offense last week against the worst team in the league, Carolina, but managed to win 27-13 thanks to a pair of pick 6's of Panthers clueless rookie QB Bryce Young. The Patriots have a top-3 blitz rate, and Colts QB Gardner Minshew is averaging -0.27 EPA/play versus the blitz, per my sports betting colleague and other Football Outsider stats. Minshew also has the highest PFF turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL at 6.3%. My rushing guidelines favor the Patriots by a good margin, as the Colts allowed 138 yards rushing on 28 attempts to the Panthers last week and Indy ranks 27th in EPA/rush allowed since interior defender Grover Stewart was suspended.
Tennessee at Tampa Bay - Also adding the Titans, who sport the better offense and defense in this matchup. Both teams are 3-5 SU, but the Titans are gaining momentum with rookie QB Will Levis looking comfortable and playing well (500 pass yards, 4/1 TD-INT) in his first two starts. The Bucs are getting buried and on a 0-4 SU run while getting out-gained in four straight games. Head coach Todd Bowles, who is supposed to be a defensive guru, has a bottom-3 defense in the Buccaneers, who allow 372 yards per game, including a league-worst 441 YPG over their last three contests. The Bucs -0.9 yards per play differential is one of the worst in the league and they are -70 yards per game differential. In what should also be another 'rushing to the window' performance by Derrick Henry and the Titans running game, we'll ride the Titans and rookie QB Will Levis to a road win with more scoring than expected (over).
Still reviewing more and considering additional picks with the Vikings and Chargers both now +3. Note the Commanders are +6.5 across the board on Thursday/Friday. Yes, we're supporting some less experienced and sub-par QB's this week after three conference contenders with top QB's all lost one-score games for us as 'Dogs last week. Check back over the weekend for more updates, analysis and underdog picks.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.