Super Bowl 57 picks and props from winning NFL analyst FairwayJay
Betting on Super Bowl 57 between the slight favorite Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) and Kansas City Chiefs has been going on for more than a week. We've seen the online sportsbooks move the line from pick 'em to Eagles -2.5 back down to -1.5. Sportsbetting.ag notes the immediate action and line move on Super Bowl LVII the opening 24 hours after posting the betting line and total (see below), which is currently at 50.5 at BetOnline after the over/under was sitting at 49.5 for most the past week.
Opinions: Chiefs +1.5, Moneyline +100, Over 50.5
Some of my weekly NFL underdog picks and insights reviewed my rushing guidelines when making weekly bets on select match-ups each week. I don't often bet against those, and my data and research suggests the Eagles will outrush the Chiefs by at least 30 yards. Philadelphia also has the stronger defense, and the Eagles are now 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS when they outrushed opponents this season (including playoffs). But I'm still providing an opinion on the Chiefs. I bet KC and the Over at a better number and prefer the total a little more.
Turnovers may surely impact the result, and hopefully QB Hurts finds his first Super Bowl an OVERwhelming experience.
The team that had fewer turnovers are 37-7 SU and 35-8-1 ATS (81.3%) in the 44 Super Bowls where there was a turnover advantage for either team.
Strength of Schedule
The Eagles played the 31st strength of schedule (SOS) this season (2nd easiest) and the Chiefs No. 16 according to Jeff Sagarin ratings. Prior to the season, the Chiefs schedule rated one of the toughest in the NFL based on opponents season win totals. In 13 Super Bowls with a strength of schedule (SOS) difference of 10 or more spots, the team that played the better and stronger schedule is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS. One of those losses was the miraculous Patriots comeback from a 28-3 second half deficit in the 2017 Super Bowl LI to beat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime (We bet the Falcons +3 and moneyline). The Patriots played the league’s lowest SOS that season.
The only other team to play a schedule as weak or weaker than the 2022 Eagles is the 2005 Seahawks, who lost 21-10 to the Steelers in Super Bowl XL.
Record Wagering on Super Bowl LVII
I've been traveling and in paradise, and the Super Bowl is paradise for many sports bettors and additional recreational fans that place bets. Leading online sportsbooks offer even more cash bonuses and incentives for betting on the Big Game. This year's Super Bowl a is expected to set records with 50.4 million American adults planning to bet $16 billion on Super Bowl LVII. That’s an increase of 61% over last year, according to the data sent out this week by the American Gaming Association.
Our 2023 NFL playoff selections of Picks and Opinions are 6-3 following a 2-2 result in the conference championship games (Leans no good). I'm usually all-in on adding Super Bowl prop bets, but limited this year. So check out additional betting tips, trends and prop bets in my Super Bowl coverage in Forbes where I add a few props including Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith to go over his receiving yards prop (63.5 yards).
Check out additional Eagles - Chiefs betting information and analytics that may help you with formulating other prop bets. From coverages, match-ups, personnel to pressure rates, there is real data to assist you more than your buddy who spews out other opinions without accuracy. I've reviewed more to determine how the game will play out in assisting me with a few additional prop bets, but much more limited for Super Bowl LVII as I've been unavailable for extended time leading up to the Big Game.
Know too that the prop numbers move and are subject to change, but have fun betting on Super Bowl LVII where prop bets often offer more opportunities to cash in. But no need to be foolish like one better at a leading online sportsbook (BetMGM) who wagered $5,000 on the exact, correct score at 200/1 odds - Chiefs 33, Eagles 30. While I would also like to see a similar score and final result, know he could have gotten 250/1 odds had he placed his bet a little earlier like another bettor who bet $1,600 on a correct score of Chiefs 31, Eagles 26.
“The Chiefs winning the Super Bowl is what BetMGM needs. The worst scenario is Travis Kelce scoring the first touchdown and the Eagles winning 37-34. We’d lose sleep over that result.”— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) February 10, 2023
– Seamus Magee, Sports Trader, @BetMGM
By the way, at least 2 out of every 3 spread bets are on the Eagles at most leading online sportsbooks and 65% or more money on the Eagles.
Super Bowl Line Movement
Here is a timestamp of the movements from the opener through the first 42 minutes on the board, courtesy of SportsBetting.ag:
10:03 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 51)
10:04 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (+1, 51)
10:04 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 51)
10:05 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (+1, 50.5)
10:05 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 50)
10:06 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 49.5)
10:06 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (+1, 49.5)
10:07 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 49.5)
10:07 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-1, 49.5)
10:08 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 49.5)
10:08 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (+1, 49.5)
10:09 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 50.5
10:09 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (+1, 50.5)
10:11 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 50)
10:14 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-1, 50)
10:14 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (PK, 50)
10:16 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-1.5, 50)
10:16 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-1, 50)
10:17 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-1.5, 50)
10:20 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-2, 50)
10:21 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-2, 49.5)
10:27 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-2.5, 49.5)
10:45 p.m. EST – Chiefs vs. Eagles (-2, 49.5)
And there are more than 10,000 ways to wager at online sportsbooks like Sportsbetting.ag, an affiliate of BetOnline, where novelty props like the national anthem props had to be canceled and closed due to suspicious betting patterns.
Super Bowl Contests and Bonuses
Length of National Anthem
(NOTE: Prop was closed at 127 seconds due to suspicious betting patterns on “OVER”)
Over/Under 125 seconds
Length of "brave" during National Anthem
(NOTE: Prop was closed due to above prop closure)
Over/Under 5 seconds
Check back for any additional updates including prop bets and information you can bet on this weekend before Super Bowl LVII.
Look forward to more NFL underdog picks and playoff coverage next season. Super Bowl LVIII is in Las Vegas where a new wagering records will be set on the Super Bowl.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.