Betting advice for the Indy 500, Monaco Grand Prix and Coca Cola 600

For car racing enthusiasts, nothing beats the Sunday of the Memorial Day weekend. Three of the biggest races in their respective series run virtually back to back and many car racing buffs will sit down around 9 am ET to tune into the Monaco GP and won’t turn the TV off until the Coca Cola 600 is completed around 11 pm the same night. And in between those 2 races of course is the granddaddy of them all, the Indianapolis 500. Aside from the excitement of the racing is the history of each event as well as the ability to win money on them either in Vegas, offshore, with local bookmakers and more recently at legal sportsbooks in various states. With that in mind the following is my analysis and picks for each of the races.

Formula 1 – Monaco GP

The Monaco GP which is run on the streets of Monte Carlo and La Condamine is known for two things, high attrition and the difficulty in passing. The Monaco GP course is so narrow with tight turns and a tunnel that it has been said that if it wasn’t already on the schedule it would be banned since it is such a dangerous track. Nelson Piquet also famously said that driving at Monaco is like trying to ride a bicycle around your living room. Because of the design of the track passing is extremely difficult and the only real way to pass other drivers is with bad pit stops by other teams or a safety car coming out at the right time. And make no mistake the safety car comes out often. Since cars drive so close together in single file, it’s not unusual to see cars leaning up against a wall, flipped over and multi-car crashes when one driver brakes too early. There is one small passing zone, but the only time there ever seems to be a pass there is when a far superior car outbreaks an inferior one. Since 1996 no driver has ever started worse than 4th and won the race and most winners have started either first or 2nd on the grid. The farthest back any driver ever started and won the Monaco GP was in 1996 when Olivier Panis won from 14th place. That year, however, was an anomaly as terrible weather led to multiple crashes and mechanical breakdowns and only 3 drivers finished the race. The track is also a very high downforce track which gives Red Bull an edge over Ferrari in race conditions. This is actually Red Bull’s most successful track.

With that in mind here is my expected result in this race:

Winner: Lewis Hamilton (6/5 odds). Hamilton was fastest in both early practices and Mercedes has been dominant all year. If he gets the pole he will win and there is nothing thus far to suggest the Ferraris or Red Bulls can challenge Mercedes for the pole.

Second: Valtteri Bottas (9/5 odds). Bottas is Hamilton’s teammate and leads him in the points. He has outqualified Hamilton 3 straight times, but the team has made it known that Hamilton is their #1 driver. So even if Bottas beats Hamilton to the pole it wouldn’t be shocking to see the team call a pit strategy that will put Hamilton ahead of him.

Third: Max Verstappen (7/2 odds). As mentioned, This is Red Bull’s best track and Verstappen is vastly superior to his teammate Pierre Gasly. It’s doubtful the Ferraris will have much for him in qualifying or the race and the other cars will need a miracle to finish on the podium, let alone win the race.

Indy Car - Indianapolis 500

This will be the 103rd running of the Indy 500 which is run at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, also known as the Brickyard. The race is known for its history, high speeds reaching up to 230 mph, spectacular crashes (Robert Wickens has not raced since being injured and paralyzed in last year’s race), close finishes and the female drivers who try to compete with their male counterparts in a race dominated by men. Danica Patrick was the most successful woman in the race finishing 3rd in 2009 and 4th in 2005, but only Pippa Mann will be representing the women in this year’s race.

The race had a big asterisk next to it from 1996 to 1999 when the best open wheel teams decided to boycott the race after Tony George, the owner of Indianapolis Motor Speedway, announced that 25 of the 33 spots would be reserved for IRL drivers who were not as good as their CART counterparts. In those years Buddy Lazier, Arie Luyendyk, Eddie Cheever and Kenny Brack won the race for minor teams in races filled with car breakdowns and substantially slower speeds. In fact, once the CART teams waved the white flag and joined IRL, Buddy Lazier found it difficult to qualify any race and almost always finished near the back of the field. That split resulted in low interest in Indy Car for quite some time but in recent years there has been a renewed interest thanks to stories like Danica Patrick as well as Fernando Alonso deciding to race the Indy 500 the last 2 years. Unfortunately for Alonso, McLaren did a poor job setting up his primary car and bought an inferior backup car that resulted in Alonso failing to qualify for this year’s race. Apparently, McLaren were prepared to pay millions to a team that qualified for the race in exchange for allowing Alonso to race that car, but Alonso said he wasn’t willing to kick out another driver and wouldn’t race if he couldn’t qualify on his own merit.

One thing that has been notable with this year’s race is that the Chevrolets qualify the best, but the Hondas have been best in race conditions looking at practice speeds. Honda also gets better gas mileage. Starting position doesn’t tend to be that important since passing is fairly easy although drivers don’t want to be starting at the back of the grid either. Fuel strategy also is of extreme importance and Alexander Rossi won the race at 100-1 odds in 2016 due strictly to fuel conservation.

With that in mind here are my predictions for the race:

Winner: Alexander Rossi (8/1 odds). Long gone are the days where Rossi was an unknown longshot. He has been stellar the last 2 seasons and thrives on these big tracks. He started 32nd last year and still finished 4th appearing for a while like he would win the race. He drives a Honda and clearly knows how to save fuel.

Second: Ryan Hunter Reay (16/1 odds). Hunter Reay did not have a good qualifying run but he knows how to advance through the field and as another Andretti car he will be tough at race time and will get good gas mileage. Hunter Reay won in 2014 from a similar situation.

Third: Helio Castroneves (10/1 odds). Having won the race in 2001, 2002 and 2009, Helio knows how to win at Indy. He is no longer an Indy car regular but always makes his presence known at race time. The Penske cars may be at a slight disadvantage since they use a Chevrolet engine but Penske is also the most winning car owner in sport history with 17 Indy 500 wins, the closest competitor only having 6 wins.  My hunch is that of the Penske cars Helio will do better than Will Power, Simon Pagenaud and Josef Newgarden, all who are starting from a better position.

Longshot Chance: James Hinchcliffe (odds 50/1). Hinchcliffe barely made the field after finding something on bump day and knocking Fernando Alonso, Patricio O’Ward and Max Chilton from the race. Hinchcliffe’s teams admit they made mistakes setting up the car that led to a poor qualifying run, but they have found something in practice following bump day and Hinchcliffe has been much faster. It would not be shocking to see him pass several cars and be there at the end.

NASCAR – Coca Cola 600

The longest race on the schedule the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway starts in the daylight and ends under the lights. The race was originally called the World 600 and was run on a weekday prior to the Memorial Day weekend, but in 1974 NASCAR wanted a race to compete with the Indy 500 and the two actually raced at the same time. Generally speaking, the Indy 500 was far more popular. This tradition continued until 1992 when Charlotte put in lights and the race was moved to 5:30 pm to allow race fans to view both on the same day. The race became famous as a result of it being the first race to be run both in daylight and under the lights. Many equate the Monaco GP, Indy 500, Coca Cola 600 triple header to the Thanksgiving day triple header in the NFL.

The Coca Cola 600 can be somewhat dull at first since drivers have to make sure to conserve their cars to last 600 miles, so the first part of the race sees somewhat slower speeds and drivers driving cautiously but the action picks up near the end. And with NASCAR now implementing stages, the final stage is always intriguing. By that time some cars are struggling mechanically, other drivers start conserving fuel and tire management becomes imperative. Several drivers including Carl Edwards and Austin Dillon won the race thanks to a fuel saving strategy.

NASCAR races this year have been dominated by 3 teams – Penske racing, Gibbs racing and Stewart-Haas racing. Chase Elliott has also been quite good for Hendrick Motorsports. The 1 ½ mile tracks, however, have generally been won by Penske, Gibbs or Stewart-Haas. But for fuel conservation Gibbs and Penske struggle. Kyle Larson won the All-Star race last week at Charlotte for Chip Ganassi Racing. The new package makes it difficult to pass so cars want to be closer to the lead, especially entering the last stage. As a result, qualifying results are more important than in prior years.

With that in mind, here are my predictions for the race:

Winner: Martin Truex Jr (odds 6/1). Truex loves this track, has improved dramatically in recent races and has been unbeatable at times on 1 ½ mile tracks. He starts 14th but has been fast in practice and will have no problem making up the spots.

Second: Kyle Busch (odds 3/1). The defending champion, Busch has been spectacular all year recording 3 victories. He will take some beating and starts 3rd. Busch, however, can make blunders at times and I expect him and Truex, his teammate, to be battling at the end.

Third: Joey Logano (odds 8/1). Logano is deceptively good. He may be unheralded unlike his teammate Brad Keselowski who has three wins this year, but Logano has a killer instinct and if he gets close, he has no issue moving drivers out of the way to get the win.

Longshot Chance: Kurt Busch (odds 25/1). Busch is one of those drivers who never seems to be competitive for most of the race but at the end is right there. He loves 1 ½ mile tracks and Charlotte and it wouldn’t be a shock to seem him in the winner’s circle at the end.

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