For a race where steady rain is expected at Churchill Downs, the Wednesday scratch of Omaha Beach, generally considered to be the most effective runner on a sloppy track, sent nearly everybody back to the drawing board.

It was all about "What now?" Certainly, when you have a horse that broke its maiden by nine lengths AND also won the Arkansas Derby on sloppy tracks, that makes him a logical choice.

In the 19-horse Kentucky Derby field (Haikal scratched on Friday) there are seemingly an unending number of possibilities. The current favorite is Game Winner (5-1), with Improbable and Roadster checking in at 6-1.

But none of this was going to have much of an effect on one of the contenders I'll be using.

Post-time for the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby, to be televised on NBC, is 6:50 PM ET. And at BetAnySports, you will have the opportunity to place wagers on the Derby in the racebook and tackle head-to-head matchups in the sportsbook.

The skeptics have come up with enough reasons to discard Maximum Security, the three-year-old out of New Year's Day who is trained by Jason Servis and will be ridden by Luis Saez. He was indeed part of a $16,000 claiming race as a first-time starter. He has been around two turns only once. And in that particular race, the Florida Derby, he benefited from very slow fractions and was never challenged on the lead in a wire-to-wire victory. His pedigree is not dazzling for this distance.

So you don't see him among the favorites.

But should he be?

What's interesting about these objections is that they don't really have anything to do with an instance where the horse has failed. You know what I mean?

For example, just because he was in a claiming race doesn't mean that's the kind of horse he was. In point of fact, his connections were almost certain he wasn't going to be claimed, and he not only won that debut by 9-3/4 lengths, but he followed that up with wins by 6-1/2, 18 and 3-1/2 lengths. In retrospect, that's obviously not a claiming horse. And what does it matter, even if his brain trust did not see his upside?

Yes, there is little question that the fractions in the Florida Derby helped Maximum Security. The trainer acknowledged that, and gave his jockey a lot of credit. "He (Saez) backed them up," said Servis. "I have to give him credit. I think it had a lot to do with it. I'm not downgrading the horse, but Luis did a great job.”

But speed is speed. And it will be useful in this race, particularly with Omaha Beach not involved. I'm not sure you're aware of this, but there is only one horse in the Kentucky Derby field who has registered a Beyer Speed Figure greater than 100. Maximum Security has done that not once, but twice.

Furthermore, there were other highly-touted horses in that Florida Derby. That included Code of Honor, Hidden Scroll and Bourbon War. They couldn't put together a game plan to win. So it is a bit unfair to tag Servis' horse as "untested."

Yes, the Florida Derby was this horse's first time around two turns, and people use that to knock the horse. But the fact that Maximum Security, perhaps lightly tested before then, would dominate the field with such little experience has to be classified as impressive. And the horse stayed dominant, moving from six furlongs to seven to a mile and a half. So moving up in distance AND class was no problem. For what it's worth, among these 19 entrants, only Maximum Security and Roadster won a Grade 1 race last time out.

And guess what? This horse has won big on a muddy track, having chalked up a victory by six and a half lengths in January, albeit in an optional claimer.

What I kind of like is the "mystery" element of Maximum Security, and that is a part of where we get a better price. He may indeed not be ready for a race like this, but then again, he may be a monster. That Beyer figure is impressive, and the opposition is less imposing without the favorite. He may be able to come from off the pace; the fact is, we don't really know for sure. But I am willing to pay to find out.

Not sure who else I'm going to use quite yet, but I'm going to have Maximum Security in there somewhere.

(In the racebook, Maximum Security was posted at 10-1, the last I looked. And in a two-way proposition in the sportsbook, he's +700)

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