NCAA Basketball Picks -- Butler at St. John's: Pitino looks for a big win

  • In Charles Jay
  • Tue, Jan 2nd, 2024 2:57:08 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


It's Rick Pitino vs. Thad Matta as St. John's hosts Butler on Tuesday night in Big East Conference action.


BetOnline patrons who follow the Big East Conference are well aware that Rick Pitino has huge plans for the St. John's Red Storm. It's been a long road back for the legendary coach, who got flushed out of the Louisville program amid scandal, then found refuge at Iona, and ultimately left literally within 24 hours of his team being eliminated by eventual national champion UConn from the NCAA Tournament last March.

It is important to Pitino that his team raise its profile and keep it "large" by playing as many games as possible at Madison Square Garden. But on Tuesday, they'll be back in the more cozy environs of the Carnesecca Arena in Jamaica, NY as they take on the Butler Bulldogs, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports 1.

St. John's comes in with a record of 9-4, losing to Boston College, Michigan and Dayton, in addition to an all-out effort against UConn two days before Christmas which resulted in a narrow 69-65 defeat. Big wins have come against Utah and Xavier, and they have come with an almost completely revamped roster, which retained standouts like Joel Soriano, who provides much of the size component, and left bahind players such as Posh Alexander, who left the school but now retuens as a member of Butler's cast.

Butler is 10-3, and the three losses have come against ranked teams like Florida Atlantic, Michigan State and Providence. Head coach Thad Matta began his career at Butler, moved on to Xavier, and was head man at Ohio State for 13 years before returning to Butler.

As we contemplate our NCAA basketball picks, here are the odds as they have been posted at BetOnline:

St. John's Red Storm -6.5
Butler Bulldogs +6.5

Over 152.5 Points -110
Under 152.5 Points -110

As we approach tipoff, there was some uncertainty about Chris Ledlum, a key "glue" guy for Pitino, who had to sit out a win over Xavier with an ankle injury. Ledlum, who was an Ill-Ivy League performer at Harvard, then briefly transferred to Tennessee before changing his mind and joining Pitino at St. John's, did engage in practice on Monday. In his first game with the Red Storm, he had NINE offensive rebounds against Stony Brook.

Offensive rebounding is, in fact, a principal part of the St. John's repertoire. They are ranked third in the nation in that category, pulling down 42.1% of their misses. Soriano has been a monster of sorts in the middle; the Fordham transfer has averaged 4.5 offensive boards per game, and had fourteen caroms overall in the 15-point win the team registered over Xavier. He also leads the Big East in block percentage.

Pitino brought his point guard from Iona. Daniss Jenkins has averaged almost six assists per game, and he came up big when the Red Storm beat Utah (91-82) withn 19 points and eight assists.

The casualty in that transfer situation may wind up being the key figure in this game. The aforementioned Alexander could have stayed with St. John's after Pitino arrived, but no doubt was told that his role would be reduced. So he transferred to Butler and is contributing in a big way. Alexander, who is not a great outside shooter, has averaged 10.7 points, 5.2 assists and 4.5 rebounds (the latter quite an accomplishment for a six-foot point guard). He has always been known as a dogged defender, and he is a primary reason that the Bulldogs are in the top 30 in turnover percentage. In Butler's 103-95 overtime win over Texas Tech, he had a triple-double (10 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists).

Don't tell us that this isn't the most meaningful game of his career. And that counts for something.

So does the fact that Butler doesn't leave a lot of points on the table when they go to the line, as they are in the top 25 in accuracy (76.5%).

That's another reason we're interested in taking the points.

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