March Madness Free Pick for Utah State vs Purdue

Sure, BetOnline customers that in the game of basketball, particularly the NBA, the trend is going more in the direction of lineups that are "positionless." But hey, it's basketball, and there is still room for a big man.

The Purdue Boilermakers have the best big man in all of college hoops, and his effect is greater than anyone else. Zach Edey, a native of Ontario (Canada, that is) with Chinese ancestry on his mother's side, is a unique individual in this game. And he gives his team an edge that opponents are forced to compensate for.

Such an opponent is the Utah State Aggies, and they'll take the floor on Sunday at 2:40 PM ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Edey is the reigning player of the year in college basketball. At 7-4, he is the tallest player ever to compete in the Big Ten. This season he has averaged 24.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks. Of those rebounds, 4.6 of those (per game) were on the offensive end. That makes him and even more invaluable weapon, because he creates second shot opportunities for his team, many of which he puts right back up.

He is a senior. And even though he has an extra year of eligibility available (because of the past COVID crisis), he has announced he's going to bypass that for the NBA. Whether he'll dominate at that level is another question to explore, but he's certainly someone who Utah State has to account for, first and foremost.

In the NCAA Tournament odds posted on this game at BetOnline, Purdue is favored by double digits:

Purdue Boilermakers -11.5 (-109)
Utah State Aggies    +11.5 (-111)

Over 150 points -110
Under 150 points -110

What you have to think about here is what happened to Purdue in last year's NCAA Tournament. Even with Edey and everyone else on hand, they lost their first round game to Fairleigh Dickinson. This year, ,they were having nione of that.

They registered a 78-50 win over Grambling State that was punctuated with Edey's 30 points and 21 rebounds.

Matt Painter's Boilermakers (30-4 SU, 17-15-2 ATS) can be an awesome force at times. Remember Samford, which very nearly upset Kansas in the opening round? Well, Purdue beat them by 53 points in the season opener. And they have also taken the measure of an array of schools that are among the best in the country, such as Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan State.

But they are still stinging, we believe, from an overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament.

Utah State (28-6 SU, 15-15-2 ATS) is no slouch. They were in a conference (the Mountain West) that was formidable this season, with six NCAA Tournament bids. They beat Colorado State, Boise State, San Diego State and New Mexico, among others. They were impressive in Friday's action, beating TCU 88-72, behind 21 points from Ian Martinez and 13 from Great Osobor.

A native of England, Osobor was among the MWC leaders in a number of categories, including Effective field Goal Percentage, True Shooting percentage, offensive and defensive rebounding, block percentage and steals percentage. And he is able to get to the line a lot. He played for Utah State coach Danny Sprinkle at Montana State, and followed him to Logan.

Yeah, this is a big pointspread. But I wonder whether I'd rather move with the total. Utah State does not shoot well from the outside (their only real threat from there is Darius Brown at 38.8%), ,and the inside is going to be a big challenge. And the Aggies are the nation's third best team defending the triple (allowing just 29%), so that could neutralize what Purdue can do stretching the floor. This looks like an UNDER to me.

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