NCAAB Championship Futures Preview



Some predictions for the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, where the odds favor a Gonzaga and Baylor matchup in the final game.

NCAA Basketball Championship odds and insights

As we enter February, the men's college basketball world appears to have two teams at the very top – and then everyone else. Gonzaga, currently holding the top ranking, is trudging its way through another easy West Coast Conference slate. Baylor has a tougher league, with Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma all posing threats – and with such teams as Oklahoma State and Iowa State there to catch teams that might be napping at the wrong time. If both teams win out, I would imagine that Baylor would snag the top seed in the tournament as recognition for its more difficult conference road. It is possible that the teams will reschedule their earlier matchup from last fall, when Baylor had to cancel due to COVID-19 cases.

Let's take a look at these two teams, as well as other contenders in college hoops, plus the excellent NCAAB Odds to Win, courtesy of JAZZSports.ag:

NCAA Basketball Championship Predictions

Gonzaga odds to win NCAA ChampionshipGonzaga (+250 ml) has now won 113 games since the beginning of the 2017-18 season. That is the most wins by any program over that time frame, and by a comfortable margin. The next teams on the list are Virginia (100), Houston (96), Villanova (96) and Kansas (95).

Baylor (+400 ml) trailed by nine points in the first half at Oklahoma State. That was their largest deficit in any game so far this season. What did the Bears do? They roared back to win by 15 points. Then Baylor crushed K-State (by 48) and handled Auburn with ease. The Bears have led opponents by at least five points in 46 consecutive games.

Villanova (+750 ml) have won nine games in a row, resuming after almost a month without games due to COVID-19 cases in the program. In their 15-point win against Providence, all five of the Wildcat starters scored at least nine points. After a COVID postponement vs. UConn and a Big East win over Seton Hall, the Wildcats visit St. John’s next.

Michigan (+1200 ml) beat Maryland at home and Purdue on the road by 41 combined points. That made a nice recovery from that 18-point beating Michigan took at Minnesota in their first loss of the season. However, the Wolverines have been put on the shelf by a two-week shutdown of all athletics at the university due to the discovery of cases of the more infectious (and potentially more deadly) strain of COVID-19 on the campus. Michigan’s next game won't be before February 11, when they are scheduled to play Illinois.

Texas Longhorns NCAA basketball oddsTexas (+1500 ml) has missed coach Shaka Smart, out with a positive COVID-19 test. Texas played Oklahoma last Tuesday without him; it was the first game for the Longhorns in ten games. Kentucky is not going to reschedule this weekend's Big 12/SEC Challenge with the Longhorns. And, with a loss last week and no weekend game to help, Texas has dropped out of the top five in the latest AP poll. Smart's symptoms and isolation timeline have his readiness for Tuesday’s game against Baylor in question.

Virginia (+2500 ml) rolled over Syracuse last Monday, 81-53, behind 21 points and 12 boards from Jay Huff, before dropping just their 3rd game of the season to Virginia Tech on Saturday. An interesting feature of Virginia's games is their quickness: their win over the Orange only took an hour and 43 minutes. Why are the games so fast? Because teams are not shooting many free throws against them, as they play clean defense and have a high-paced offense.

Going down the stretch, it will be interesting to see how the remainder of league play, as well as conference tournaments, will impact these teams going forward. It would be surprising not to see Gonzaga and Baylor both in the Final Four, although after that things get a little murkier, as the teams are closer in quality.

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