Previews and betting information for NFL Super Wild Card games 

The NFL playoff bracket is set, and Super Wild Card weekend kicks off the 2024 playoffs with six games. Leading online sportsbooks have three very competitively-priced contests with spreads of 3 points or less, and a pair of big spreads 7 points or greater on favorites Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys - both No. 2 seeds playing at home. 

I have Picks, Opinions and Leans below as we did in last year's playoffs (3-0 Picks & Opinions). 

The bookies who built the business 

The chart below provides stats and ATS betting information from my research and additional data from Playbook Sports. Check back for additional updates.

Isolating stats of the playoff teams accumulated against this year's playoff teams shows how teams did against the stronger NFL teams this season. It doesn't tell us if those teams had key players out or injuries that impacted a teams performance or stats, or a scheduling situation that was favorable or not. But it helps in understanding the stats as a baseline against better teams. 

BetOnline NFL Playoff pick 'em contest

Keep in mind, last year the Jaguars rallied from a huge deficit to upset the Chargers. The Giants also beat the Vikings on the road. Jacksonville and New York had pretty significant negative net yardage vs. playoff teams to their playoff opponent. And the Bengals, among the worst playoff teams last year in negative net yardage vs. other playoff teams, beat both the Ravens and Bills (on the road), who were top-4 in net yards

Teams Stats vs Playoff Teams

The teams that out-gained the most playoff opponents during the regular season were the 49ers (6-2), Lions (5-1), Texans (5-1), Bills (5-1), Browns (5-2). The worst teams in yards who were outgained by playoff opponents were the Steelers (1-7), Buccaneers (1-5) and Dolphins (2-4). 

I provided NFL underdog picks and insights this season and went 28-27 ATS, with 19 outright winners. That included a dominating December going 11-1 ATS. Recent winning seasons in 2022, 2021 and back further also including a 28-12 ATS season in 2021 good for 70% winners. Posting NFL underdog picks the last three years has produced a 88-65 ATS (57.5%) mark with 64 outright winners. Fairway's Forecast the last 7 years posting NFL underdog picks at OSGA have gone 190-144 ATS (57%) with 92 outright winners.

#WildCardWeekend $ & tix

CLE @ HOU +2.5
67% bets & 50% $ Browns

MIA @ KC -4.5
62% bets & 62% $ Chiefs

PIT @ BUF -10
65% bets & 51% $ Steelers

GB @ DAL -7.5
50% bets & 61% $ Pack

LAR @ DET -3
62% bets & 53% $ Rams

PHI @ TB
57% bets & 58% $ Birds

Odds>https://t.co/NtZNwxRmvk

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) January 11, 2024

Wild Card Round Matchups, Picks, Odds, Analysis 

FWIW, our NFL Wild Card round Picks and Opinions went 3-0 ATS last year with more Leans. 

Sat., Jan. 13
Odds provided by BetOnline

Cleveland (-2) at Houston (-9.5), Total 44.5

The Houston Texans were 11-38-1 the past three seasons until rookie QB CJ Stroud surprisingly led the Texans back to the playoffs. Stroud is taking money on his passing yards prop to go 'over' (242.5) against the cover 3 defense of the Browns. But Cleveland's dominant defense led the NFL holding opponents to 270 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. With all the Bros struggling at QB for the Browns, they picked up Joe Flacco in November. All the 38-year-old QB has done is energize the offense while passing for more than 300 yards in four straight games to close the season before resting in the season finale. That included 368 passing yards in a 36-22 road win over these Texans Christmas even when Houston QB Stroud was sidelined. Defense gets the call over rookie QB in his first playoff start and the Browns balanced the offense to score more. 

Hidden stat: Browns head coach Kevin Stefankski is 10-0 outright against the AFC South in his career. 

Opinion: Browns 

Miami at Kansas City(-4.5), Total 43

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 in Germany back on Nov. 5. Neither team gained 300 yards, and it was a rare game where the Dolphins out-scored an opponent in the second half, 14-0. For the season against winning teams, Miami was outscored in the second half in 5 of 6 by a margin scoring margin of 86-42. A look at the NFL weather shows a slight chance of snow in Kansas City Saturday with bitter cold temps around -8 below zero. Wind chill values could reach as low as -28. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Think the Dolphins would have liked to hold their season-long AFC East division lead until losing to the Bills in Week 18? Instead of home in Miami, it's tough travel and bitter cold, which puts the fish in a deep freeze. This line would have been very favorable for Dolphins bettors a few weeks ago. But the Chiefs have taken spread money with the line up a full point to -4.5 with the Dolphins players dealing with a number of injuries, including top WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (?) and RB Raheem Mostert (?) along with some concerns along both OL and DL plus CB Xavier Howard out. I was looking to fade both these teams, knowing too Miami is 1-5 SU/ATS vs. winning teams this season. But I'll lean the Chiefs way knowing too that Mahomes has thrown 30 touchdown passes to just 3 interceptions in home playoff games. But Mahomes also posted career-lows in success rate (48.2%), yards per pass attempt (7.0 Y/A), yards per completion (10.4), and passing yards per game (261.4) this season and had his highest INT rate (2.3%) in a season as starter. The Dolphins play on a short week off their Sunday Night Football loss to the Bills, and the Chiefs also have the best coach/quarterback combo in the playoffs. 

Opinion: Chiefs and Lean Under

Sun., Jan. 14 

Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-9.5), Total 34.5

The early Sunday kickoff in Buffalo shows a chance of snow with SW winds at 18-23 mph and gusts near 40 mph. That's send this total down sharply, and there have been only five Bills home games since 2000 with wind speeds of 23+ mph and the games have gone 4-1 'under' the game total with an average total set of 37.4 points and an average final score of only 32.0 points. The Steelers play without superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt, who injured his knee in the season finale at Baltimore to get the Steelers into the playoffs. Watt led the league in sacks (19) for the third time, and his absence is huge as the Steelers are 1-10 playing without him, and 69-33 when he's in the lineup. Very low total, and only the weather keeps this from being a Pick. 

Opinion: Bills

Green Bay at Dallas (-7), Total 50.5

The Cowboys are 2-4 SU in the playoffs under QB Dak Prescott. Time to put up or shut up, and the Cowboys have played their best at home and been mostly dominant scoring at least 30 points in 7-of-8 home games. Only a 20-19 last season win over the Lions was close, and Dallas still rolled up nearly 400 yards offense. Sure the Packers played their best the second half of the season going 6-2 SU with QB Jordan Love posting an 18-1 TD-to-INT ratio. That included a 27-19 road win as +6 'Dog at Kansas City when Love out-played and out-passed Mahomes. But no Love for the Packers in the Bros first playoff start and Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy gets the best of his former team. 

Opinion: Cowboys and Lean Over

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit (-3), Total 51.5

Rams QB Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit, where ticket prices to this game have soared with the Lions returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and without a playoff win for 32 years. The Lions own the DVOA advantages, a prolific balanced offense with tons of skill talent and No. 2 offensive line ranking, according to Pro Football Focus. Detroit ranked No. 7 in DVOA ratings to the Rams No. 17. This sets up to be the highest-scoring game of wild card weekend, even with the Lions playing without star rookie TE Sam LaPorta. 

Picks: Lions and Over

Mon, Jan. 15

Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay, Total 43

NFL Wild Card round home underdogs playing with same-season revenge are 9-1-1 ATS since 2009. No team has fallen further and out of form than the Eagles, who started 10-1 and finished the season 11-6. The Eagles beat the Bucs 25-11 on this field in late September while dominating with 201 yards rushing and 271 yards passing. Of course the Eagles will fly to a victory if they reach those yard marks again, but I'm not betting on it as the Eagles haven’t covered a point spread since their 21-17 Week 11 victory at Kansas City. The Eagles went 1-3 SU and 0-4 to close the season and all games against non-playoff games. The two games prior the Eagles were blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield had an underrated season, and Tampa has playmakers at skill positions and the Bucs get the call despite a weaker strength of schedule than the Eagles. 

Opinion: Buccaneers and Lean Under

Check back for more updates, analysis and information you can bet on over NFL Super Wild Card weekend. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.