NFL Playoff Betting -- Steelers have to grind it out against more explosive Bills

  • In Charles Jay
  • Mon, Jan 15th, 2024 11:03:35 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


In a game that was postponed for a day, the Buffalo Bills play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC wild card round of the NFL playoffs.

Preview and predictions for the NFL Wildcard matchup between the Steelers and Bills

In the NFL, if it is determined that a game has to be postponed because of weather, that means the weather was pretty damn bad. And so they could not conduct the NFL playoff matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers due to a severe winter storm in Western New York.

BetOnline patrons can see the game on CBS on Monday afternoon at 4:30 PM ET.

d Card free pick Steelers BIllsReportedly there are crew members, some of whom were recruited from the general public, to shovel out some of the snow in Highmark Stadium. And perhaps these offenses can operate a little easier than they would otherwise.

Pittsburgh got into this position by putting on a little rally at the end of the season, and it was spearheaded by, of all people, Mason Rudolph, a career backup who was a forgotten man in the Steel City, having been relegated to a third-string role behind Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky. Head coach Mike Tomlin turned to him as kind of a last resort, and Rudolph has delivered with a 74% accuracy rate and 9.7 yards per attempt with NO interceptions. And Tomlin got to the playoffs again. This is now his 17th straight season at .500 or higher, and it's his eleventh postseason berth.

The Bills were also on a surge to end the regular season, winning five consecutive games. In the process they went from a team scared that they were not going to make the playoffs to one that captured the AFC East after beating Miami last weekend. The Bills ran up 473 yards in that game, but frankly, they needed a 96-yard punt return TD from Deomte Harty to overcome three Josh Allen turnovers (two INT's and a fumble) for the 21-14 win.

Some consider Sean McDermott's decision to replace offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady as a turning point in the Bills' season. That may well be the case.

Brady will be calling plays against a Pittsburgh defense that will be without All-Pro TJ Watt, who sprained his MCL. Watt had 19 of the Steelers' 47 sacks.

In the NFL playoff betting odds that have been posted on this game by the people at BetOnline, the Bills are double-digit favorites:

Buffalo Bills              -10
Pittsburgh Steelers +10

Over 38.5 Points -111
Under 38.5 Points -109

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What do the Bills have to do in order to win this game AND carry the sizable number?

-- They will have to get James Cook warmed up. When he is at his best, Cook (4.7 yards per carry) is one of the top back in the NFL. And depending on what we'll see in terms of winds, Buffalo may need to depend a lot more on the ground game.

Buffalo Bills  Wild  Card free pick-- Weather permitting, they need some big plays out of Stefon Diggs, who caught 107 passes for 1183 yards in the regular season.

-- In his first playoff game, rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid needs to step up in the absence of wideout Gabe Davis.

-- They need to slow down the Steelers' running game, because that's what they'll be leaning on.

-- They need to force a couple of turnovers out of Rudolph. Remember, it's no accident that this guy has been a backup his whole career. Maybe he's "due."

And what do the Steelers have to do to win or keep this game close?

-- They absolutely have to be able to run the ball. They have the components to do it; Najee Harris (1035 yards) and Jaylen Warren (784) may not be spectacular, but they know how to scratch and claw their way down the field. And keep in mind that the Bills are a little soft against the run, allowing 4.6 yards per carry over the course of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wild Card Free PIck-- Minimize what Josh Allen can do with his legs. Allen can scramble or occasionally run by design, and down toward the goal line he is particularly dangerous, with 15 rushing touchdowns.

-- They have to somehow take advantage of Allen's tendency to make errant throws. Remember that he has tossed 18 interceptions.

-- They need to protect Rudolph, because if they can't, they're going to be playing "behind the sticks," as the commentators like to say.

-- They have to disrupt the Bills' #1 weapon, who is Diggs. That means it is quite possibly a huge assignment for cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who who has allowed just 45.3% completions on passes thrown his way.

So what are the operative factors here?

You've got to understand that Tomlin is one of the great underdog coaches in the NFL, covering 61.5% of the time. As we have pointed out, his teams have, more often than not, found a way to win. They may not win here, but they are capable of putting together a formula to be competitive. So we'll take the points.

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