Big game NFL preview for Bills at Eagles

The 6-5 Buffalo Bills can’t play the offensively-inept New York Jets every week,  so late Sunday afternoon, it’s off to Philadelphia and a date against the NFL best 9-1 Eagles.

Buffalo ended with a quite facile 32-6 home win over the Jets last Sunday, righting (at least temporarily) the ship. Quarterback Josh Allen three three touchdowns passes. Now, the schedule maker gives the Bills a litmus test to see if they can indeed make a run at the playoffs.

Philadelphia beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 21-17, on the road Monday evening, exacting some revenge on the team that defeated it in the last Super Bowl. Quarterback Jalen Hurts had a pair of rushing touchdowns, while the stumblebum Chiefs did themselves no favors.

Philadelphia is a field-goal favorite (total at 48½), according to NFL odds. The moneyline is Eagles -170, Bills at +148.

Philly has won eight of the 14 games between the teams (first meeting since 2019).  

These Counterfeit (Not?) Bills

Along with the Los Angeles Chargers, the Buffalo Bills have been as confounding as any team in the NFL. Buffalo is averaging nine points more (26.7 to 17.3) than it allows, but hasn’t played any sort of consistent football this season. 

There was about a three-week period when the team was unstoppable. Since then, many games have been nearly unwatchable. Having a pre-holiday feast at the expense of the Jets in Orchard Park wasn’t surprising, and despite the inconsistent ride, Mr. Oddsmaker is expecting a  close game against the cream of the league.  

Quarterback Josh Allen (2,875 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) has been a wild card too often this season, just two games without a pick to date. 

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs (77 receptions, 895 yards, seven touchdowns) is the subject of a fun comparison with the Eagles’ A.J. Brown (see below) here, while running back James Cook (688 yards) has been a dependable option in the backfield. 

Those Lethal Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles did not get to 9-1 by happenstance. They’re fifth in scoring offense (27.3 points/game), ninth in total offense (362.9 yards/game), eighth in rushing (128.1 yards/game) on the year and leading the league in defense against the run (76½ yards/game). 

Quarterback Jalen Hurts (2,497 yards, 15 touchdowns, nine interceptions) has added nine ground touchdowns, becoming the team’s best goal-line (push him in) option. 

Leading receiver A.J. Brown (68 receptions, 1,013 yards, six touchdowns) had a quiet game (one catch, eight yards) against the Chiefs. but don’t expect that trend to continue. Running back D’Andre Swift (690 yards, four touchdowns) has continued to be a weapon.

Buffalo is top-10 in total defense at 314.6 yards/game.

The season-ending schedule is a brutal one (after bye week), so the Bills know what’s at stake.

Grab the Points

Philadelphia is one of the 9-2 (+450) tri-choices (Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers) to win the title, while Buffalo has ballooned to 25-1 (+2500), as per Super Bowl LVIII odds.

Buffalo’s still a certifiably desperate team, and while QB Josh Allen figures to engineer some big plays in this game, he’s also going to see a ton of pressure. Expect the Eagles to force Allen into turnovers, however. 

This is going to be as tight as the odds are suggesting. Take the Buffalo Bills +3. Go under, too.