As many people look at Super Bowl LV (55), they see a duel between one of the great quarterbacks of the present and future (Patrick Mahomes) and one of the great quarterbacks of the past and present (Tom Brady).

Will it indeed be an aerial circus?

Maybe. But perhaps it will be something different.

Here are the Super Bowl betting odds as they are currently posted at BetAnySports:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-105)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-115)

Over 55.5 points -110
Under 55.5 points -110

Right off, let me say that I like the under. I could go on and on about it, perhaps forever, but I'm going to describe it in as much of a nutshell as I possibly can.

When these teams played each other on November 29 (Week 12), the Chiefs got off to a 17-0 lead early, as Tyreek Hill destroyed the Tampa Bay secondary for 203 yards.IN THE FIRST QUARTER.

Interestingly enough, Hill had just 66 yards the rest of the way, and the Bucs actually made it a ballgame, coming to within three points with four minutes to go before an onside kick failed. Final was 27-24.

Mahomes had 462 passing yards. And neither team pretended they had much of a running game. In fact, KC passed the ball 72% of the time. Of course, falling behind early, the Bucs couldn't afford to run all that much, and Brady passed it on just under 76% of downs.

Honestly, we don't expect that the Chiefs will run any more than that, and you could make the case that they'll do it less. They have a makeshift offensive line, with Eric Fisher out, Mitchell Schwartz having been out since Week 6, and guys switching around. So the bottom line is that they have two tackles who are substitutes.

That doesn't bode well for a run game, particularly when you consider that the Bucs have the best defensive line in football against the run, hitting high on some of the Football Outsiders metrics like Adjusted Line Yards (1st), Second-Level Yards (1st) and Stuff Rate (2nd). The Bucs are also sixth best in sack percentage, but at least Mahomes' ability to improvise can mitigate that, and it probably will.

I do expect that Tampa Bay's defensive approach will be somewhat different. This is a team that is 21st in passing defense, which is defined by passing yards allowed. But when it comes to preventing explosive passing plays (those that go for at least 20 yards), they are fourth in the league. Some of that probably involves their ability to get pressure with four pass rushers. We expect them to try that again and not blitz much, even though that is what they've done more than any other team. Mahomes beats blitzes like nobody else.

What I'd be looking for Tampa Bay to do is keep everything in front of them as much as possible. That's not necessarily going to stop the Chiefs. But it might force them to work harder to get down the field. Mahomes is okay with throwing short passes; in fact he's been doing that with Tyreek Hill. And when you progress down the field that way, you can take up more of the clock than if you hit two or three big plays.

Remember also that the Chiefs, who scored more than 30 points in seven of their first ten games, have done that in only three of their last eight.

Let;'s not forget another thing - Kansas City came on toward the end of the season, just as they did last year. Only one of the Chiefs' last seven opponents reached 400 yards.

They also did a great job against wide receivers. Only the Los Angeles Rams, in fact, gave up fewer yards to the wide receiver position. That wouldn't be great news for people like Mike Evans and Antonio Brown, though it might be better for Chris Godwin and the tight ends.

My own theory about the Bucs is that they would like to keep this game somewhat under control by running the ball when they can and put together lengthy drives, for the purposes of reducing the number of KC possessions, They might be able to do that, considering that the Chiefs have surrendered 4.5 yards per rush attempt.

But maybe it won't be a windfall; over the first seven games of the season, KC allowed 150 rushing yards per contest. But in the eleven ensuing games, they've allowed just 104 rush yards per outing.

And let's not discount the presence of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who had some solutions for Brady way back when his New York Giants beat a previously-undefeated New England Patriots team in Super Bowl 43. He had a way to put bothersome pressure on the rather stationary Brady.

We know that these teams could both run up big scores. And the QBs can carve up just about every defense. But
all of these things I've mentioned contribute to the feeling that this will be more "defensive" than many people expect. So it is UNDER 55.5 for this one.

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