The Los Angeles Dodgers have not had a lot of luck with hard-throwing right-hander Tony Gonsolin in this post-season. But if things change, they could be raising the World Series championship trophy by the end of the evening.
The Dodgers, who are up three games to two, will send Gonsolin to the mound against Blake Snell and the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 6, taking place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX on Tuesday night (8:08 PM ET, Fox).
This is the way the World Series betting odds look at BetAnySports right now for Game 6:
Los Angeles Dodgers -120 (Gonsolin - R)
Tampa Bay Rays +115 (Snell- L)
Over 8 Runs -110
Under 8 Runs +100
Those odds you see above come through reduced juice, which always gives you a better price. And after the first pitch, you can keep the action going with Sports Betting Prime.
Things have simply not worked out very well for Gonsolin lately. In his last three appearances, he has given up- seven hits and six walks in 7-2/3 innings. He is, presumably, in this game to "open " it, and manager Dave Roberts will decide what to do from there.
Austin Barnes will do the catching and Will Smith will assume the designated hitter role. Gonsolin walked two out of 75 hitters when Barnes was catching him in the regular season. Cody Bellinger, who has had some back problems, will be back in center field.
Blake Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young winner, was ready in an emergency capacity in Game 4, but then the Rays staged their 10th inning comeback to win.
Now he's all set to go in Game 6, and on full rest, which is often a luxury in a post-season series.
He's been more than adequate in post-season play, with a 3.33 ERA, In Game 2 he went 4-2/3 innings and gave up two runs. That's not a dominant performance, but enough to keep his team very much in the game.
The flip side to all of this, of course, is that the Dodgers' lineup, which got a couple of looks at him in Game 2, will see him again and they have made the necessary adjustments..... we presume.
Gonsolin has surrendered as many walks in the post-season as he did in the regular season. So he becomes sort of a wild card right there. He had a 2.31 ERA with an 0.84 WHIP ratio before the playoffs began, and was overwhelming at times. He went at least five innings in each of his last five regular season starts.
During his first 25 pitches of any appearance, Gonsolin has allowed opposing hitters to bat .179 with a .250 slugging average. He has struck out 16 of 57 batters who have faced him in that period. His strikeout-walk ratio in the the first two innings of games (in the regular season, that is) is 19-to-1, allowing one run during those innings.
So it is clear that when the guy is on, he can take the bat out of your hands very quickly. So when evaluating this game, you have to ask yourself whether you believe his problems with control are going to continue, or whether he's going to move back toward the "mean." Because if he does the latter, he has the potential to be a very solid play here.
BetAnySports patrons should be careful about referring to Snell as an "ace" of the Tampa Bay staff. In the playoffs and World Series, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is sometimes a pretty good indicator of how "fortunate" a pitcher has been, is 5.29, which is a lot higher than what he posted in the regular season (4.35). And as we speak of Gonsolin's wildness, well, Snell has had control problems as well during this post-season, with 14 walks in 24-1/3 innings. The Dodgers, as you've been told time and again if you've been watching, see more pitches than any other team.
What may be kind of tricky about this game is how the bullpen situation may play itself out. Roberts may not want to turn this into a "bullpenning" effort, as he doesn't want to burn out his relief pitchers in the event of a Game 7. And on the other side, Kevin Cash has some of the same concerns, so we don't expect he'd want to lift Snell before the fifth or sixth inning.
Tampa Bay may have a slight edge in the bullpen, but both 'pens have had their moments. Much of the advantage lies in how they're deployed and how much rest they've had.
Because that is a big variable, we elect to reduce this to the first five innings, and we do that on the assumption that Roberts wants to get some mileage out of Gonsolin. With the reduced juice price, we are laying just -112 with the Dodgers in that play. So that's a "go." And since L.A. has scored at least four runs in every game, we'll grab +105 at "over 4.5" for the team total, since we anticipate more success against Snell the second time around.
BetAnySports customers get the best of everything, and that includes reduced juice, which gives you much better odds. ..... Take advantage of that, as well as Sports Betting Prime, which enables real-time wagering during the game itself....... Open that account now! use your debit card, credit card, person-to-person transfers or the virtual currency of Bitcoin, which is fast and easy with their automated system, and NEVER incurs a transaction fee!