It’s always challenging to handicap the annual Heisman Trophy odds prior to each season. It certainly can be a bit of a crapshoot. I’m always vulnerable to having my pick go sideways due to an unforeseen injury or miscellaneous occurrence, and sometimes even before the season begins. Nevertheless, I’m going to take my best shot at making my 2018 Heisman Trophy picks, including two long shots picks, as well as choosing a perceived front runner.
The following 2018 Heisman Trophy Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.ag.
Bryce Love (Stanford) |
+800 |
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Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin) |
+750 |
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Jake Fromm (Georgia) |
+1000 |
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Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) |
+800 |
||
Khalil Tate (Arizona) |
+1400 |
||
Shea Patterson (Michigan) |
+1600 |
||
Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) |
+1600 |
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JK Dobbins (Ohio State) |
+2000 |
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Will Grier (West Virginia) |
+2000 |
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Trace McSorley (Penn State) |
+2000 |
||
Jarrett Stidham (Auburn) |
+2500 |
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Cam Akers (Florida State) |
+2500 |
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Rodney Anderson (Oklahoma) |
+2500 |
||
Sam Ehlinger (Texas) |
+3300 |
||
Kelly Bryant (Clemson) |
+3300 |
||
Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) |
+2500 |
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Justin Herbert (Oregon) |
+3300 |
||
Deondre Francois (Florida State) |
+3300 |
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DAndre Swift (Georgia) |
+3300 |
||
Drew Lock (Missouri) |
+3300 |
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Brandon Wimbush (Notre Dame) |
+3300 |
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Nick Fitzgerald (Mississippi State) |
+3300 |
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Jake Browning (Washington) |
+5000 |
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Jalen Hurts (Alabama) |
+5000 |
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KJ Costello (Stanford) |
+5000 |
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Ed Oliver (Houston) |
+5000 |
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Travis Etienne (Clemson) |
+5000 |
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AJ Dillon (Boston College) |
+3300 |
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McKenzie Milton |
+3300 |
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Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) |
+1600 |
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Brian Lewerke (Michigan State) |
+3300 |
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JT Daniels (USC) |
+6600 |
Live Heisman Longshots
Nick Fitzgerald (+3300): The Mississippi State senior quarterback is primed for a huge season. The 6’5 and 230-pound Fitzgerald is a prototypical college football dual threat quarterback that can hurt opponents with both his arm and legs. During the last 2 seasons, Fitzgerald has rushed for 2359 yards and scored 30 touchdowns.
During Fitzgerald’s sophomore and junior years, he threw for a combined 4205 yards and tossed 36 touchdown passes. However, If he truly aspires to be a serious Heisman Trophy candidate, Fitzgerald must improve upon his completion percentage and cut down on interceptions. He completed just 54.7% of his pass attempts and was picked off 21 times during that previously mentioned 2-year period.
I expect Mississippi State to be a dark horse team in the SEC this season, and for that to occur, Fitzgerald unequivocally must be a huge part of that reason for success.
Jake Browning (+5000): Washington is one of my picks top reach this season’s college football 4-team playoff. Browning will be entering his 4th season as the Huskies starter and they’ve gone a combined 29-11 during that time frame, including a PAC-12 title and college football playoff appearance in 2016. Browning has a robust 9104 career passing yards and has thrown for 72 touchdowns while completing 64.4% of his aerial attempts. Including Browning, Washington returns 7 additional offensive starters.
If Browning has anything close to a kind of year he enjoyed in 2016, he’ll assuredly be in the conversation for college football’s most prestigious individual reward. During that spectacular season that saw Washington go 12-2, Browning threw for 3430 yards and 43 touchdowns while being intercepted only 9 times in 391 pass attempts.
My Top Heisman Trophy Pick
Bryce Love (+800): The Stanford running back is coming off an exemplary 2017 season in which he rushed for an enormous 2118 yards and 19 touchdowns. Love averaged an eye catching 8.1 years per rushing attempt which is difficult to fathom and especially considering he plays in a “Power 5 Conference”. That native of Raleigh, North Carolina runs with a rare combination of patience and explosiveness. Love also has an innate ability to gain positive yardage when there’s seemingly none to be had. Barring an injury, I can’t envision any scenario in which Love isn’t at least invited to New York as a 2018 Heisman Trophy finalist. Love will also benefit from being on a Stanford team that should be a Top 20 squad and may possibly have an outside shot at qualifying for a spot in the college football playoffs.
Players to Avoid
Kelly Bryant (+800)/Trevor Lawrence (+1600): Surely Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney is fortunate to have two quality options at quarterback. The junior Bryant led Clemson to a 12-2 record last season which culminated with a college football semifinal playoff loss to eventual national champion Alabama. By all accounts, the highly touted true freshmen Lawrence is an absolute stud who’ll be difficult to keep sidelined. Whenever I see 2 quarterbacks from the same team listed in preseason Heisman Trophy odds it sends up a red flag. Simply put, it indicates to me that an intense competition is about to transpire during summer camp and will likely remain a fluid situation through at least the early part of the schedule.
Tua Tagovailoa (+800)/Jalen Hurts +5000: As if defending national champion Alabama needs any more luxuries, they possess 2 highly skilled quarterbacks to lead the way. All Jalen Hurts has done is go 26-3 as a starter during his first 2 years in Tuscaloosa and lead the Crimson Tide to a pair of national championship game appearances. Inopportunely for Hurts, he struggled during the 1st half of last year’s title game against Georgia and was replaced by Tagovailoa. All the freshmen from Hawaii did was complete the winning touchdown pass in overtime on a 4th and 17 play which clinched Alabama’s 6th national title under head coach Nick Saban. I don’t see either player holding a clipboard for the entirety of this upcoming season, and it will diminish each of their chances from being named a 2018 Heisman Trophy winner.
Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com